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#1
04-26-2005, 09:27 AM
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Better Poker In Less Than 30 Seconds (Part 1)
Hey all,
This situation crossed my mind on my way to work this morning, and after thinking about it for a couple of minutes, I think that it might have more of a practical application than it first struck me as having. So, I'm going to make two posts; the first where I lay out the situation and get peoples' reactions, the second where I tweak it a little and show the practical application. And to preempt some of the comments: Yes, I'm a huge dork who thinks about things like EV calculations while walking to work. Anyway, you must decide what Hero's action should be in this hypothetical situation. But, you MUST decide within 30 seconds. So, if you think for more than 30 seconds, don't bother replying. Also, DON'T put your answer in the title to your post so that others can see. And, if you want to share the logic that you used in your 30 seconds (and I would encourage people to do that), write another post in which you reply to your initial one-word 'gut reaction' post. Here is the situation... UTG moves all-in. He would only do this with AA/KK/AK. Folded to Hero in the BB. Hero has KK. Each player has 100 BB stacks. Do you call or fold? 30 seconds. Starting. Now! ML4L 
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#2
04-26-2005, 09:31 AM
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Re: Better Poker In Less Than 30 Seconds (Part 1)
10 seconds...
If I knew he would only do that with those range of hands, I... FOLD.
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#5
04-26-2005, 09:44 AM
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Re: Better Poker In Less Than 30 Seconds (Part 1)
Gut reaction says call. This was assuming that he'll push no matter what with A-A or A-K or K-K.
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#6
04-26-2005, 09:44 AM
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Re: Better Poker In Less Than 30 Seconds (Part 1)
Fold
6 ways to have AA, 1 way to have KK, 8 ways to have AK. I'm a 4:1 dog 6/15 of the time, chopping 1/15 of the time, and a 7:3 favorite 8/15 of the time. Despite being ahead half the time, I don't think I'm far enough ahead to call and make up for the times I'm way behind (I could do the complete calculation but it would take more than 30 seconds). Incidentally, my first reaction was to call because I'd be ahead most of the time but a few seconds later I realized that I probably wasn't far enough ahead for it to be +EV.
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#7
04-26-2005, 09:45 AM
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Re: Better Poker In Less Than 30 Seconds (Part 1)
fold.
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#8
04-26-2005, 09:47 AM
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Re: Better Poker In Less Than 30 Seconds (Part 1)
Fold. You're taking too many of the kings in your own hand for this to be a call.
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#9
04-26-2005, 09:48 AM
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Re: Better Poker In Less Than 30 Seconds (Part 1)
I call. (decided in the right time)
More ways to make up AK so you're roughly a 75% favourite more of the time and a have a 20% chance of winning the rest of the time. Although I think the call is only just +EV.
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#10
04-26-2005, 09:49 AM
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Re: Better Poker In Less Than 30 Seconds (Part 1)
call but it's extremely close. because it was 30 seconds i couldnt calculate exact EV but it seemed to be a call. working through it now, ignoring KK, you just look at your EV of AA v AK... 6 ways to have 20% and 8 ways to have 75% seems to work out greater than 50... (6(.2) + 8(.75) )/14 = .514. i have no idea if this is how you calculate it but if it is then that seems right...
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