No way out of this??

[zaxx19]

Small tourney like ~130 players 33 left 20 get paid

I had 3800 in mid postion about 1500 below avg. villain 1 has a little more villain 2 perhaps 2k more. Blinds 150-300

I pick up QQ

1 LIMPER a large stack comes in before me I raise to 975.

Villain 1 smooth calls but he has been playing very eradically and Im not that concerned- Villain 2 smooth calls he is a trickish player who has restolen a few times from suspected blind stealers.

POT is ~ 3800 now and I have 2800 left. Im already telling myself this looks scary but if I see a ragged flop Im commited.

Flop comes 3 9 4 rainbow

I check bc the maniac or villain 2 is almost 100% sure to bet here from patterns of previous hands. Villain 1 checks and villain 2 moves all in ( I read him for AA here)

Now the pot has 6600 for me plus a possible call by villain 1. I have 2.5-1 odds on my money and call without really thinking although I suspect I am beat. Villain 1 calls with A6s?? villain2 flips over KK and I dont catch.

Is their anyway I can get away from QQ here?? I suspect not; but 2 smooth calls to a huge bet is a bad sign isnt it??

2.5-1 is pretty damn good odds on my $$. Should my range for villain 2 include 10-10 j-j here?? I also thought perhaps A-K or A-Q??

Any thoughts ..or is this just run of the mill bad luck?? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[DVC Calif]

Zaxx -

Nope, that's poker. Only thing that might have saved you was if the board was coordinated or an ace came off. Barring that KK and QQ are gonna get all their chips in the middle with that flop.

Your preflop bet looks okay, although t1200 would be more standard (3xbb plus limper).

I'm not sure if I like you checking that flop though. I know your read is that either villains will bet out. But I would rather take control and put them to the decision. Especially if they had drawing hands like AK/AQ/KQ. You don't want to give free cards and allow them to catch their over.

If your read on Villain 2 was AA, why call his raise? (You certainly have the pot odds with Villain 1 calling also.) But you are gambling on your two outer if your read is correct.

And what if Villain 1 limped/called with 99? Flopped set would have ben played the same way.

That being said, you got your money in with a great hand. Tough break that there was a slightly better one right after you.

Steve

[zaxx19]

Well id have to be right about that call like 70% of the time to make that lay...and since I started out weak tight as a player..I usually ere on the side of caution with my reads. Also That smooth call and raise on the flop could easily have been 10 10 or JJ with JJ being high on my probable list. Basically there was just too much in the pot to let go of with such a strong hand on a raised hand and a ragged flop. Hard for me to justify folding QQ with that flop and those odds if I really am trying to play for the final table and not just puny cashing.Im kinda suprised he didnt reraise with me and a caller in and so much money in the pot with KK in his hand.

[Jon Matthews]

You say that villain 2 is a tricky player who has restolen a couple of times and then you put him on AA? That doesn't really make sense.

This is a perfect flop for your QQ. Neither player reraised preflop, so you have to figure your hand to be good. You don't have enough chips for a check raise so you should bet out all in.

You were dead to the KK here no matter what. The only way to have survived this hand would be if you covered both players or had enough BB's to fold in a raise reraise scenario on the flop.

Jon

[zaxx19]

Neither player reraised preflop, so you have to figure your hand to be good.\

Would AA necessarily raise here?? He already has a huge pot with 2 other player one who is nuts and one who has raised in relatively EP and put in like 1/4th his stack. Why not give us more rope??

You don't have enough chips for a check raise so you should bet out all in.

Im always amazed at people blasting checkraising in situations like this WHEN YOU NEED TO DOUBLE UP..

The risk is minimal on a rainbow un coordinated board..

First someone both players would have to check behind me.....perhaps a 25% chance with a bloated pot like that.


2 Someone would need an overcard or be able to cath a set..ok this is pretty common like 95%

3 Someone must catch that card 2 overs that ARE out ~15%? the set maker maybe 4%(on turn)


So the risk is like 5% of the time when the catastrophic happens and Im all in on the turn anyway so if I get busted so be it. The extram cash that goes in the pot more than makes up for the risk doesnt it??

BTW if you believe the pot will be checked down more than 25% in a given situation just multiply 4% by the factor yu believe it to be raised...50%? is 2X25% so 2X5%= 10% seems like manageable risk to me...Am I missing something??