Wasted bet on the river?

[Alexthegreat]

I think checking the turn is the smart play here...maybe you get a free card, maybe not, but I don't think you can expect your A high to win this pot....so go for a free card and check/fold the river if you get no help....You are betting their hands for them, and unless they BOTH have busted draws, betting the turn and river isn't going to send them anywhere.....

[maurile]

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I don't think you can expect your A high to win this pot...

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No, it won't. When I said "as long as my ace overcard is good," I meant as long as it gave me three good outs to a pair of aces (that is, I'm not reverse-dominated, and nobody already has two pair or better). My ace won't always give me additional outs, so I need to discount it. Not sure how much, exactly. But on this particular hand, with the benefit of seeing my opponents' cards, an ace on the river (as well as any heart) would have won me the pot, so I actually had more than my fair share of pot equity on the turn, and my turn bet was actually a good value bet -- although I didn't know it at the time.

[SteveY]

Actually your sim was wrong because you put the board cards into the dead cards section. Hard to beleive half the deck gives you the winner. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Link

[Trix]

You like the flop raise ?

[MAxx]

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You like the flop raise ?

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I don't like flop raise. Seemed to work OK this time. However, here in this spot... you don't want to knock anyone out. Sure, would like to pump the pot up a bit... but not at the expense of makeing people face a double bet right off the bat.

If you were at a loose table that peeps were regularly calling two cold, and you were convinced it would not knock people out..... then good raise.

[tolbiny]

so I actually had more than my fair share of pot equity on the turn,

You have 12 cards out of 46 after you turn bet- barely over 26% of the cards out there help you- your turn bet is not a value bet with a maximum of 2 callers.
Also there is the possibility of a c/r from the sb if he has 2 pair or a set (which hurts you the most since when this happens you either 9 or 8 outs, no longer 12) and the LP player could have been waiting till the turn to raise his set.

[sublime]

I don't like flop raise. Seemed to work OK this time. However, here in this spot... you don't want to knock anyone out. Sure, would like to pump the pot up a bit... but not at the expense of makeing people face a double bet right off the bat.

The flop raise might protect your Ace outs. You have to ask yourself, is the pot big enough to be concerned about that? Its close here, I could be persuaded either way.

[tolbiny]

however I like heros follow through bet on the turn

Ok mike, what is hero following through? On the flop i like the raise, and even the 4 bet is alright by me with the nut flush/overcard draw. Now on the turn he shouldn't be following through like nothing has changed. A blank hit the turn and now he is essentially 1/2 as likely to hit his draw. Time to check. As a semibluff you cant convince me- i can remember maybe twice when i was in on a hand that was 4-bet three way on the flop and then folded by two players for one bet on the turn. Both times a scare card came, and once i was one of the folders and that was with a very convincing read on my opponant.
Sometimes you will end up facing a c/r from the SB and sometimes you will get raised by the button who is slowplaying a set. This turn bet is -ev IMO.

[maurile]

Thanks. When I was thinking about it later, I knew that had to be wrong; 12 outs is of course worse than 2:1. But who am I to doubt TwoDimes.net? (It would help if I entered the hand correctly.)

[maurile]

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As a semibluff you cant convince me- i can remember maybe twice when i was in on a hand that was 4-bet three way on the flop and then folded by two players for one bet on the turn.

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This is a good point.