Would a flop call be too loose here? - Page 2

@bsolute_luck · #11 07-08-2005, 05:46 AM

i thought those odds were for when only 1 card is still to come.

jax: yeah i was asking about the flop-to-turn odds.

Watain · #12 07-08-2005, 07:39 AM

Call the bastard.

The things in consideration is:

- Making you hand on the turn - the str8 - and be beaten by a higher str8. Redraws also highly possible if you make it on the turn.

- Making the flush and be beaten to a higher flush.

- Effective odds, works mostly to your advantage but is somewhat lowered by the points above.

... But since you are closing the action, and might even get a free card on the turn, i would give it a call.

PuckNPoker · #13 07-08-2005, 12:38 PM

Thanks all, I had thought it was an easy call but for some reason the hand bugged me a bit.. Here is the rest of the hand sans results, I think I played the river poorly. Not because I went for overcalls, but because I didnt notice that the PFR went to showdown anytime he raised pf.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 raises, 3 folds, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 bets, CO calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 bets, CO calls, SB raises, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, CO calls.

River: (14 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, CO calls.

Final Pot: 18 BB

crownjules · #14 07-08-2005, 12:56 PM

Raise that river man! You're behind to only higher flushes. SB's C/R on the turn is not likely on a flush draw but two-pair or set.

EDIT: Actually, overcalls may be better or equal to raising. Depends on if CO will call 2-cold (you already stated the PFR will goto SD which likely means he'll call 2 cold), so it's a close decision. I think I'd go for the raise, however.

PuckNPoker · #15 07-08-2005, 01:30 PM

I wasn't afraid of a larger flush, but if I took a bit more time to think about things I definitely should have raised. I really just made a knee jerk "one will get me three, two will get me two" reaction when in fact it is much more likely that raising would have gotten me called in 2 places at least.

marchron · #16 07-08-2005, 01:45 PM

At 11-1, you're getting odds for the gutshot alone. Call.

The river . . . gotta raise. You can't figure anyone for a higher backdoor flush given the action. If the ace were a different suit, then A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]/X[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] would factor in, but that's not the case this hand.

deception5 · #17 07-08-2005, 02:44 PM

Interesting... I would probably raise the river, but if you have reads that these players will both overcall but not call a raise then calling could be more profitable.

GrunchCan · #18 07-08-2005, 02:54 PM

Although I agree that you should call here, I think it's closer than most people indicate.

I don't think you discount the value of your hand enough. Your straight draw isn't worth 4 full outs, becasue you won't win 100% of the time if you hit what you're drawing to. It's called a 'sucker straight' for a reason. Your gutshot is probably worth closer to 3 outs. The same is also true of the flush draw, but the discounted value is probably relatively close to the undiscounted value - the BDFD is prob worth 1-1.25 outs. Your hand is therefore worth somewhere around 4 outs. You need 1:12 with 4 outs, and your'e getting 1:11. But it's close enough so the implied odds can pull you in. If SB calls, you've made your odds right there. Go ahead and call here.

PuckNPoker · #19 07-08-2005, 03:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Although I agree that you should call here, I think it's closer than most people indicate.

I don't think you discount the value of your hand enough. Your straight draw isn't worth 4 full outs, becasue you won't win 100% of the time if you hit what you're drawing to. It's called a 'sucker straight' for a reason. Your gutshot is probably worth closer to 3 outs. The same is also true of the flush draw, but the discounted value is probably relatively close to the undiscounted value - the BDFD is prob worth 1-1.25 outs. Your hand is therefore worth somewhere around 4 outs. You need 1:12 with 4 outs, and your'e getting 1:11. But it's close enough so the implied odds can pull you in. If SB calls, you've made your odds right there. Go ahead and call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually on the flop I took pretty long (had like 8 seconds left on the clock iirc) to calculate everything. I came up with exactly what you posted (I didnt want to prejudice anyone in my initial post and let them come up with their own discounting), I figured myself for around breakeven odds on the flop and the implied odds pushed it to a easy call instead of a "bad call". But for some reason I kept thinking about the hand and wanted to double check myself.

TomBrooks · #20 07-08-2005, 07:10 PM

PREFLOP: Call marginal but OK. 54 is so low.

FLOP: Worth a small bet to see one more card. Gutshot outs are a little weak as your on the low end of the 678 it would put on board. I'll count the gutshot outs as a generous 3, the BD flush as 1.5, the BD gutshot on the other side as 1.5. Total outs: 6. You have odds to call.

EDIT: I think Grunch is right to discount the BD FD a little because it's so low. I'll say 1 to that but leave the gutshot as a full 3. That makes 5.5 outs, maybe 5.75. Grunch, you left out the BD wheel. I forgot to figure the bets that went into the flop before it was your turn to act. With those this is an easy call.