21 point teaser EV question

EricW · #1 12-09-2005, 04:56 AM

This is kind of a probability question but it relates to NFL betting so I'll post it here:

My friend is thinking of doing a 10 team, 21 point teaser for the NFL. He has to risk $170 to win $100. He has to go 10/10 to win, but he gets 21 points for each game.

What is the EV for this and how would one calculate it?

DougOzzzz · #2 12-09-2005, 06:05 AM

Using data from NFL games from 93 to 04, I get 94.837% of the games that a team managed to cover the spread +21 points. I'm not sure how ties effect this bet, but I will ignore them for now.

Anyway, the probability of winning this is simply .94837^10 or about 58.85%. That's not enough to make it profitable (needs ~63%) but it's not impossible that if your friend picks the correct 10 sides that it could be +EV.

Frankly I'm a little surprised because when I read this I thought it would be a much bigger "suckers" bet.

Edit: What are the rules on ties? This could have a pretty significant effect, and if "ties lose" is the case, the win pct drops to 55.3%.

craig r · #3 12-09-2005, 06:30 AM

My guess is that ties lose. The OP said you had to win them all. Of course, they could just mean that you can't lose even one.

craig

Action Scott · #4 12-09-2005, 09:05 AM

Doug, Where do you get those stats, i'm kind of new to sports betting. Thanks.

tech · #5 12-09-2005, 10:14 AM

Can you include totals too, or just sides?

#6 12-09-2005, 10:47 AM

Anyone know what site takes this bet? If it is not appropriate to say feel free to pm me.

kdog · #7 12-09-2005, 09:30 PM

5Dimes takes these things. They call them Monster Teasers and ties lose.

Tech...you can use totals in them too,even team totals. I was looking at them the week Baltimore played Pittsburgh and the over for the Ravens for a 14 pt teaser was 4 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

plus_man · #8 12-09-2005, 10:08 PM

5dimes does take this kind of bet but not at those odds.

plus_man · #9 12-09-2005, 10:08 PM

I'd also like to know what site your using for this.

tech · #10 12-09-2005, 10:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
5Dimes takes these things. They call them Monster Teasers and ties lose.

Tech...you can use totals in them too,even team totals. I was looking at them the week Baltimore played Pittsburgh and the over for the Ravens for a 14 pt teaser was 4

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but there is no way they can do it at those odds, at least I don't think. I haven't done the math on this, but here is my gut feeling. If I have to make 10 selections on sides teasing 21 points each at -170, I'm not sure that is +EV. If I can include sides and totals, I'm pretty sure it would be +EV. If I can include sides, totals, and team totals, the place will be broke in a month. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]