Size Does Matter

[A_PLUS]

Locutus,

My problem is, when the diamond hits...
-if it hurts us, he would most likely have called our push and we are broke anyway.
-If it doesn't hurt us, don't we want him around to bet into us?

He isnt putting us on a flush draw...thats fine. But if we KNEW a diamond was coming on the turn, we are in much better shape vs the hands that bet into us on the turn (b/c as you suggested, some players will bluff the flush) than we are vs the hands that call our push.

I dont think we are getting called very often by JT, QJ type hands. KJ...maybe, plus overpairs, and good flush draws.


So....if we just blindly decide to call a push on the turn, I think we are either the same (when he makes the flush), or better off (He bluffs the flush), than we would be if we pushed.

OK, so if we agree that flush draws arent going anywhere, what hands is he folding here, that we dont love the idea of him paying another 2.5K to see the turn?

[locutus2002]

If I raise to 4K get called and a diamond comes, I can now fold to a push, because I am well behind his range.

It would be a hard call to make for hero who still has ~50XBB left - 30 at the next level. Even being the calling station I am, I don't like making this call or most other calls at the turn.

Given that villain only has 5K left, I don't see how he is going to "go quietly into that good night"/showdown.

[MLG]

I ended up raising to 4k and calling a push. He had A3 of diamonds, and I outflipped him to get a big stack. The whole hand made me feel pretty dirty though. Getting 70ish BBs in on this flop with TPTK just makes me ill. Generally speaking my instinct is to call here if I have a hand that I have to call a push with but wont be happy about. Thing is, when there are a lot of draws out there it makes it a lot harder to figure out the turn and increases the difficulty of your decisions on later streets. So, I took the easy way out. If I had a shorter stack I think its an easy raise, if I had a deeper one, its an easy call, 70x though I felt was right on the border, so I got sloppy and decided not to give myself any tough decisions. One of the main weaknesses of most tournament players is that they are uncomfortable playing the turn and the river. Thing is, the turn and the river are where big pots are won and lost. Thats why good cash game players will play tournaments and have excellent results, even if maybe they aren't quite as good at the nuances of medium/short stack play preflop and on the flop as tournament specialists.

[M.B.E.]

Great analysis, MLG, and interesting thread.

[adanthar]

There's two reasons not to feel dirty about this hand IMO:

1)You have an ace;
2)You know that with your image you'll get played back at with far less than a 15 (12) outer.

You'd (I'd) play exactly the same with QQ there as (it turns out) a dog in the hand. 70 BB just isn't deep enough not to raise/call; I think the dividing line is higher than that.

[MLG]

Thanks man. POST MORE DUDE.

[bruce]

Had you not raised I doubt u wind up getting stacked. When
he misses the turn he'll probably check and fold to a pot
sized bet. So it seems to me by playing this aggressively
you got all your chips in on the flop as a small favorite.
Tough to find too many better spots than that.

If I recall the threads there was too much emphasis on the
villian flopping a set or having an over pair. If he had
an overpair he probably would have reraised to make this
headsup. If we compare cominations with two diamond hands
vs two pocket pairs where'll have flopped a set it's more likely that he has a diamond draw.

Bruce

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree,

I didn't say it was the best line, I said it was profitable. (significantly).

The problem I have with calling or 3 betting is that I can't put hero on a flush draw if I was villain, so I might be looking to bet/push every diamond, king, queen. Villain has alot of FE in this situation and it is unclear how EV+ it is for hero, although he is ahead of villain's range but unlikely to know when he is behind.

Top pair is not that good of a trapping hand
Villain should call a push with some of his hands that are behind (KJ,QJ,JT)??
I think hands like 66-TT are only going to put another chip in the pot when they are way ahead, so your giving free cards much of the time. (40% of his holdings)
The stacks aren't that deep for villain moving to 150/300 next level.
Without a read, I don't want to figure out how villain is playing on my dime. Give me the 1.4K EV and move to the next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really hate this thinking.

Top pair, Jacks, is not a powerhouse hand, and not worthy of your whole stack.

This is still early in the tourney when we have a chance to play small-bet poker. hitting a pair and pushing is the strategy for unimaginative noobs, not solid, thinking players.

I love betting in to preflop raisers with sets, 2 pair, or monster draws because people so love to push if they have hit or have an overpair.

Play smart. Play small bet poker. Make a solid raise and reevaluate.

Now if you're one of those players who can't reevaluate, sees monsters under the bed, and can't lay down TP/TK, then heck with it. Shoving is your best strategy anyway.

-Scott

[JaBlue]

[ QUOTE ]
I call and evaluate turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

[tpir90036]

[ QUOTE ]
Serious question jason. what hands do you raise on this flop?

[/ QUOTE ]
this is a great question. i recently realized that my range of raising hands in spots like these is so easily exploitable it is not even funny.