What Iraqis Really Think

[adios]

Some excerpts from a recent (9/10/2003 edition) WSJ op-ed column about a recent poll of Iraqis. The column was written by Karl Zinsmeister, editor in chief of The American Enterprise magazine and holder of the J.B. Fuqua chair at the American Enterprise Institute, is the author of "Boots on the Ground: A Month With the 82nd Airborne in the Battle for Iraq," just out from St. Martin's Press.

the excerpts:


Working with Zogby International survey researchers, The American Enterprise magazine has conducted the first scientific poll of the Iraqi public. Given the state of the country, this was not easy. Security problems delayed our intrepid fieldworkers several times. We labored at careful translations, regional samplings and survey methods to make sure our results would accurately reflect the views of Iraq's multifarious, long-suffering people. We consulted Eastern European pollsters about the best way to elicit honest answers from those conditioned to repress their true sentiments.

Conducted in August, our survey was necessarily limited in scope, but it reflects a nationally representative sample of Iraqi views, as captured in four disparate cities: Basra (Iraq's second largest, home to 1.7 million people, in the far south), Mosul (third largest, far north), Kirkuk (Kurdish-influenced oil city, fourth largest) and Ramadi (a resistance hotbed in the Sunni triangle). The results show that the Iraqi public is more sensible, stable and moderate than commonly portrayed, and that Iraq is not so fanatical, or resentful of the U.S., after all.

• Iraqis are optimistic. Seven out of 10 say they expect their country and their personal lives will be better five years from now. On both fronts, 32% say things will become much better.

• The toughest part of reconstructing their nation, Iraqis say by 3 to 1, will be politics, not economics. They are nervous about democracy. Asked which is closer to their own view -- "Democracy can work well in Iraq," or "Democracy is a Western way of doing things" -- five out of 10 said democracy is Western and won't work in Iraq. One in 10 wasn't sure. And four out of 10 said democracy can work in Iraq. There were interesting divergences. Sunnis were negative on democracy by more than 2 to 1; but, critically, the majority Shiites were as likely to say democracy would work for Iraqis as not. People age 18-29 are much more rosy about democracy than other Iraqis, and women are significantly more positive than men.

• Asked to name one country they would most like Iraq to model its new government on from five possibilities -- neighboring, Baathist Syria; neighbor and Islamic monarchy Saudi Arabia; neighbor and Islamist republic Iran; Arab lodestar Egypt; or the U.S. -- the most popular model by far was the U.S. The U.S. was preferred as a model by 37% of Iraqis selecting from those five -- more than Syria, Iran and Egypt put together. Saudi Arabia was in second place at 28%. Again, there were important demographic splits. Younger adults are especially favorable toward the U.S., and Shiites are more admiring than Sunnis. Interestingly, Iraqi Shiites, coreligionists with Iranians, do not admire Iran's Islamist government; the U.S. is six times as popular with them as a model for governance.

• Our interviewers inquired whether Iraq should have an Islamic government, or instead let all people practice their own religion. Only 33% want an Islamic government; a solid 60% say no. A vital detail: Shiites (whom Western reporters frequently portray as self-flagellating maniacs) are least receptive to the idea of an Islamic government, saying no by 66% to 27%. It is only among the minority Sunnis that there is interest in a religious state, and they are split evenly on the question.

• Perhaps the strongest indication that an Islamic government won't be part of Iraq's future: The nation is thoroughly secularized. We asked how often our respondents had attended the Friday prayer over the previous month. Fully 43% said "never." It's time to scratch "Khomeini II" from the list of morbid fears.

• You can also cross out "Osama II": 57% of Iraqis with an opinion have an unfavorable view of Osama bin Laden, with 41% of those saying it is a very unfavorable view. (Women are especially down on him.) Except in the Sunni triangle (where the limited support that exists for bin Laden is heavily concentrated), negative views of the al Qaeda supremo are actually quite lopsided in all parts of the country. And those opinions were collected before Iraqi police announced it was al Qaeda members who killed worshipers with a truck bomb in Najaf.

• And you can write off the possibility of a Baath revival. We asked "Should Baath Party leaders who committed crimes in the past be punished, or should past actions be put behind us?" A thoroughly unforgiving Iraqi public stated by 74% to 18% that Saddam's henchmen should be punished.

[Boris]

great post.

[Cyrus]

Sadamm Hussein had managed to firmly establish as secular a society as possible in an Arab country. Saudi Arabia hated his guts for the de-Islamization of Iraq, as it saw it. Saddam himself was an atheist, and he resorted to public praying and cozying up to the same clergy he once was harassing, only in order to gather support from the Islamists, domestically and abroad.

His was also the most notoriously anti-communist regime of all Baathists. (Ba'ath is now used derogatorily but it once was the only nationalist rallying point, at a time when the region's countries were shaking off the last chains of colonial rule.) This is why the findings you quoted describe an Iraqi population that is as religious and church-going as the average urban American community.

Saddam's regime was fanatically and primarily anti-Israel but not as much anti-American. As a matter of fact, during the Iran-Iraq war, when he was getting lots of help from the West, and particularly the States, he was showing lots of gratitude! And it was the one "friendly" regime in the area that the Soviets had the most problems with.

I find the study's findings interesting and not unexpected at all.

(Incidentally, the study proves that the bogeyman picture that the West was drawing of Iraq was essentially phony.)

[Chris Alger]

These responses are pretty much what I'd expect. I'm certainly not surprised by any of them. My understanding is that Iraqi society is more secular than many other Arab countries (thanks in part to Saddam), but the attitudes about wanting a US-style representative government, disliking bin Laden and Islamist government generally seem to accord with the rest of the Arab and Muslim world. I also think their optimism is somewhat justified, in part because it's hard to believe that things could get worse during the next few years.

However, it is naive to imagine that the U.S. will ever embrace or even tolerate an Iraq being as democratic or independent as the U.S. And this is the heart of likely future conflicts that might well cause destruction and impoverishment worse than Iraq has ever seen.

Interesting that the poll didn't inquire regarding attitudes toward the US occupiers or US intentions in their country, two of the biggest variables that willl influence Iraq's future.

[MMMMMM]

"(Incidentally, the study proves that the bogeyman picture that the West was drawing of Iraq was essentially phony.)"

It proves it? It doesn't even address it IMO. Cyrus, what the blazes are you talking about?

[Cyrus]

"The study proves that the bogeyman picture that the West was drawing of Iraq was essentially phony? It doesn't even address it IMO. What the blazes are you talking about?"

I was not referring to the Iraqi WMD threat, as perceived by the western leaders and reported by western intelligence (note distinction between the two).

I was referring to the picture drawn by western media of Iraqi people being rabid anti-westerners and hellbent on dying heroically by the thousands at the bequest of Saddam. Or the insinuations that Iraqi population was sympathetic to the cause of bin Laden's gangsters . Or that Iraqis are blindly obeying orders of religious fundamendalists. Or that the Shiites in Iraq are crazed & dangerous fanatics.

...That kind of bogeyman.

[MMMMMM]

The fanatic element in the Iraqi population is less pronounced than in many other Arab or Muslim countries, true.