Discussion on Middling

[jedi]

This is inspired by THIS thread. I think for noobs like me, a good discussion on middling can help us out. I'm just going to ramble a bit as to what I THINK I understand middling to be, and let you guys correct me if I'm wrong. And please add info.

Sygamel listed his bets as follows:

$100 to win $104.25 (Matchbook)
$107 to win $97.27 (Bowmans)

I was having trouble coming up with the numbers that he used. It looks like the Matchbook bet was +104.25 and the Bowmans bet was -110. Were these betting values that he used optimal to reduce the juice? And if so, what kind of math is required to figure that out? I was trying to figure out the optimal bet with 2 lines of -115 and -110, and gave up after a while. But my analysis showed what should be intuitive, that lines of -115 and -110 are going to cost more to middle than lines of +104 and -110. Should I wait for something like this before even thinking about middling? The +EV of sygamel's bet was based on a 2.6% juice and about a 4% chance that the game would land right on his total. It seems like I'd have to hunt for good lines before I could get an opportunity like that.

Earlier I had asked if you make these middling bets even if you're not going to bet the game anyways, but it seems like those are the exact bets you need to make because if you were going to bet the game, then you had a good idea which side was +EV. In middling games, you might not know which side is +EV, but middling it is a +EV longshot bet.

Also, in the FAQ it tells us that we can make bigger bets, while risking little money. My units are only $10, but I can bet $100 at a time, because the overall risk is still around my monetary unit, right?

How many sportsbooks do you guys use when trying to middle? How often do you do it?

[chiachu]

ok.. first off.. im a noob too (so noob that im not going to do this anymore [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]), so the things i say might be wrong. But this is what i would make of it.

if you want to middle like this, you want the two sides of the line to be as "close" as possible. By close i mean, if you get the over at say -110, you ideally would want the under at the opposite +110 (or higher too i suppose [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]). In this case, it would be a zero risk bet. In sygamel's bet, the lines were about +104 and -110, leaving a 6 cent gap between the two. If you want to aproximate how much you could lose, divide this gap by 2 (so sygamel was risking about 3% of one of his bets). In your example of the -110 and -115 lines, you have a 25 cent gap...

So the question becomes, how big of a gap can you have and still have the bet be profitable? Well this would obviously depend on the chance of a game ending on your middle number, and the amount of money you stand to win. The amount your standing to win will proabably be the size of one of your bets minus some vig, since you will probably have the under/over differ by only half a point (although if you can get it to differ by more, you could win more [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]). Im assuming numbers about how often games total end on given numbers this would be available in wong's book (i havent read it though, so im just guessing).

Then its just a matter of taking how much your risking to win how much. What the odds your getting paid are, and seeing if that is better then the odds of the middle hitting.

As far as betting $100, i think that might be a bit much. Like in sygamels example, he "bet" $200, but only risking about $3. You should probably keep this "risk" value a bit lower then your unit bet since its like betting on a longshot (say +3000, you usually dont risk a full unit on this big of a longshot, but maybe a tenth or sumthing).

The only other thing i think you should consider when doing this, is what will happen to your bankroll at each sportsbook. If your doing $10 units, im assuming u probably wont have much more then $200 at any given sports book at a time. If you middle for $100 at that site twice, and they both go the other way, you wont have any more money there. If the sites you use all let you cashout frequently and quickly, this wont be a problem. But if your doing bonuses with wager requirements, this could become an issue... or perhaps a good thing (but i think we're going into another topic that i wish i had the bankroll to try [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img])

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
This is inspired by THIS thread. I think for noobs like me, a good discussion on middling can help us out. I'm just going to ramble a bit as to what I THINK I understand middling to be, and let you guys correct me if I'm wrong. And please add info.

Sygamel listed his bets as follows:

$100 to win $104.25 (Matchbook)
$107 to win $97.27 (Bowmans)

I was having trouble coming up with the numbers that he used. It looks like the Matchbook bet was +104.25 and the Bowmans bet was -110. Were these betting values that he used optimal to reduce the juice?


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He used these values because he wanted to risk the least amount of money and did not favor either side. Basically, he wanted to minimize the maximum loss.
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And if so, what kind of math is required to figure that out? I was trying to figure out the optimal bet with 2 lines of -115 and -110, and gave up after a while. But my analysis showed what should be intuitive, that lines of -115 and -110 are going to cost more to middle than lines of +104 and -110.


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Obviously, -115 and -110 are going to cost more to middle. They could very well be profitable though, if the middle occurs frequently enough.
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Should I wait for something like this before even thinking about middling? The +EV of sygamel's bet was based on a 2.6% juice and about a 4% chance that the game would land right on his total. It seems like I'd have to hunt for good lines before I could get an opportunity like that.


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I am finding middles to not be that infrequent. I saw one on the Browns/Dolphins total last night but didn't bet it. Essentially I'd have been risking $1 to win $100 on the total landing on 36. 36 only comes through about 2% of the time, but it would still be a good longshot bet.
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Earlier I had asked if you make these middling bets even if you're not going to bet the game anyways, but it seems like those are the exact bets you need to make because if you were going to bet the game, then you had a good idea which side was +EV. In middling games, you might not know which side is +EV, but middling it is a +EV longshot bet.


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This is really the best time to middle. If you have a good idea which is the "better" side, I would advocate betting that side rather than attempting the middle.
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Also, in the FAQ it tells us that we can make bigger bets, while risking little money. My units are only $10, but I can bet $100 at a time, because the overall risk is still around my monetary unit, right?


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Be careful here. The variance is quite a bit higher on these longshot bets, and you could easily go broke if you RISK your normal unit. A single unit bet on a game should always be "to win" a certain amount. However, some of these middles have a theoretical edge that is far greater than you can get with normal games. Thus, you can bet enough to win several units (while still risking very little).
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How many sportsbooks do you guys use when trying to middle? How often do you do it?

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The more sportsbooks the better, usually. Pinnacle is essential for finding good middles. They are a "sharp" book that offers very good prices relative to other books on favorites and overs (square bets). Bowman's, Sports Interaction, and Bodog are 3 "square" books that often have lines differing enough from Pinnacle to create a profitable middle.

Also, I am working on a useful utility that will help with the mathematics of finding middles. It will be on my web site, but I don't want to spam 2+2 [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

I think the bottom line is you need a book that deals square lines, like Bowmans or SIA, and a Pinny or exchange (Matchbook, Tradesports, Mansion) to take the other side of the middle. At this point I'm still using my free commission credits (off their Colts +820 mistake) at Matchbook to make my wagers there, including the +104.25 bet I made on the Monday night middle. I don't do middling often -- only when I will have both sides of the bet returned to me quickly.

[mosuavea]

This is probably a noob question as well but would it be in the best interest of someone clearing a bonus to try and middle as much as possible to help meet the wagering requirments on two sites?

[dankhank]

here is a relevant example of middling: last week a capper i follow recommended tampa +2 as a play. then later in the week another capper recommended washington +1. no longer having a strong lean on the game i held two bets, each with zero juice. then i watched a very good football game stress free and at the end they even did some crazy stuff to make the middle hit!

anyway, i like to middle a lot of games because a) it is one of those rare times when you have a clear advantage on the books and b) it lets newer players like me hedge our moves as well as speed up bonus clearing. i even like to try and anticipate line moves early in the week, and i'll buy lines only because i expect they'll move for me later and i can middle/hedge with low risk and possible gain. i'm trying to play the market more than cap the games, as the faq seems to suggest.

the kind of middling sygamel did with his monday night total is to me a sophisticated move that i don't have the math skills to pull off properly. i tend towards qualitative analysis rather than quantitative in my gambling...

if you cap the games well early in the week and find the early value, then later in the week lines will inevitably move your way, and strong middles will appear. conversely if you correctly predict line moves then you can grab the opposite side early, and buy more units of your preferred side at gametime, at a better price. so you have a middle, a hedge, and the line you want.

danhank - I think you give me credit by calling my analysis sophisticated. I was certain 41 was a common number and Pinnacle's line move calculations were able to confirm that. Otherwise, I knew little else. I originally made the post because I wanted to know the exact frequency of 41, which DougOz posttime confirmed to be >4%, in order to possibly increase my wager. This I did after I was fairly certain the +EV of the wager was even greater than I first thought. That it hit is testament less to my analysis than luck, but at least the price was low.

[jedi]

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if you cap the games well early in the week and find the early value, then later in the week lines will inevitably move your way, and strong middles will appear. conversely if you correctly predict line moves then you can grab the opposite side early, and buy more units of your preferred side at gametime, at a better price. so you have a middle, a hedge, and the line you want.

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I think this is part of the problem. I can cap these games early, but I'm still so new at this that I'm not sure I know which way the line will move. The general rule of thumb is that the public likes favorites and overs, right? So, if I find an undervalued favorite or over (IMO) early in the week, I can make a play for that, waiting till the line moves to take the dog.

One other thing is that one of my books (sportsbook.com) makes the line -105 on Fridays so I wait until then to wager most of the time, but by then the lines are pretty much set in stone, right?

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if you cap the games well early in the week and find the early value, then later in the week lines will inevitably move your way, and strong middles will appear. conversely if you correctly predict line moves then you can grab the opposite side early, and buy more units of your preferred side at gametime, at a better price. so you have a middle, a hedge, and the line you want.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is part of the problem. I can cap these games early, but I'm still so new at this that I'm not sure I know which way the line will move. The general rule of thumb is that the public likes favorites and overs, right? So, if I find an undervalued favorite or over (IMO) early in the week, I can make a play for that, waiting till the line moves to take the dog.

One other thing is that one of my books (sportsbook.com) makes the line -105 on Fridays so I wait until then to wager most of the time, but by then the lines are pretty much set in stone, right?

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The public, and so-called NFL experts for that matter, believe that the past predicts the future, period. 48% of the time they're right. As it pertains to line movements, all that matters is what they think, not whether they're right. Take the SF/Chi total last week. That drifted down quickly from 32.5 to 30.5. Both teams weren't scoring or allowing many points in their most recent games. In that case they were right, but the public and "experts" believed this recent past was indicative of the game result. "Favorite and the over" is good as a rule of thumb but that only.

[jedi]

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The public, and so-called NFL experts for that matter, believe that the past predicts the future, period. 48% of the time they're right. As it pertains to line movements, all that matters is what they think, not whether they're right. Take the SF/Chi total last week. That drifted down quickly from 32.5 to 30.5. Both teams weren't scoring or allowing many points in their most recent games. In that case they were right, but the public and "experts" believed this recent past was indicative of the game result. "Favorite and the over" is good as a rule of thumb but that only.

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Let's use the SF/CHI total as an example. When I first looked at this game, I was squarely on the side of the UNDER, same as the public. In fact, I parlayed this with the underdogs, but that's a separate story.

If I was able to predict that the public money would be coming on the side of the under, I should have placed my UNDER bet early in the week before the line moved in that direction. If the line actually moves lower, I can re-evaluate by taking the OVER, in which case I'd middle if it hit 31 or 32. Previously, I was afraid to make the early week bet because 1) Fridays have lower juice at my sportsbook and 2) I didn't want the line to move against me and make me look like and idiot.

This line of thinking makes me believe I'm just like the public sucker, betting with the public when the smart money is being contrary to the public, right? But does the Over bet I placed later take care of this?