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#1
08-27-2005, 07:14 AM
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Travers
The more I look at this race the more I want to try and foolishly beat the top 3 (Bellamy Road, Roman Ruler & Flower Alley) with Andromeda's Hero or Reverberate. The top 3 do have some question marks so I'll try and look for some value. I decided to go with Reverberate today in hopes he will improve in his second start back after his poor start in the Belmont.
Also today they have the $1M guaranteed pick 4 pool on all 4 stakes races, and it looks like it could be really chalky. Leg 1 (Fourstardave) - I'll probably use some combination of Leroidesanimaux, Silver Tree & America Alive. Leg 2 (Hopeful) - I'll use Henny Hughes and might toss in Winning Minister on 1 ticket and will throw out First Samurai. Leg 3 (King's Bishop) - I won't try to beat Lost in the Fog here. Lucky enough to be standing in right place by the paddock before yesterday's second race when they schooled this horse. This is one BIG horse. Leg 4 (Travers) - Reverberate, Andromeda's Hero & Roman Ruler. May throw Bellamy Road or Flower Alley in there, but I'm leaning against it. If these picks turn out as well as my Breeders' Cup picks from last year, I'll be broke by the end of the day. Good luck. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] 
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#2
08-27-2005, 10:08 AM
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Re: Travers (Alas, longish)
The Travers is always an interesting race, and this yr is no exception. While I give Reverberate some kind of shot, the way the pace sets up may make it tough for him.
I see the race as having quite a bit of Early pace, with Bellamy Road very fresh, and probably eager on the lead. You have to think they are asking a lot for him to come off a layoff and win a Gr I at 10F. He's a colt of high quality,however, and if he is somehow able to duplicate his freakish performance in the Wood, he could just tow-rope them all the way. Either way, there are several others that will be tied into the expected brisk pace, including Reverberate, Roman Ruler and Flower Alley. Each of these has a commitment to the front end, and will suffer from the expected hot pace. This leaves Don't Get Mad, Chekov and Andromeda's Hero to come late and maybe pick up some or all of the pieces. Of the three, I like Don't Get Mad the least; California horses generally don't do all that well at the Spa. But the other two are both generously priced, and fit the situation. If you play the pick-4, you should know that Lost in the Fog will be on AT LEAST 95% of the tickets. If you can't beat him, you probably should skip that bet, especially since the "shorts" look tough in the other two legs as well. Good luck with the race... bill
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#3
08-28-2005, 08:45 AM
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Re: Travers (Alas, longish)
Too damn chalky is right...I go 2 deep in each race but the Traverse, where I went 3 deep...played it for $48 and made $14 profit as the pick 4 returns a whopping $62!!! Caught 1 break getting that Hughes 2-yo out of it, but it still didn't pay off for me... Had the horse who ran 2nd in the Fourstardave, which probably would have made the pick 4 pay $120 or so if that 3-5 didn't win... Oh well..better than losing I guess...
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