OE straight draw ...

[Raiser]

Haven't read any replies on this one.

I like a call here.

I think that on average you have the odds to call here (assuming your 9/T outs are good some decent portion of the time). Calling here won't really hurt you at all, but it could give you a very good chip position on the bubble.

Flame away [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Phil Van Sexton]

Very interesting hand. I really couldn't decide until I did a couple quick calculations and thought about it.

We have been programmed to recognize certain patterns and can then react quickly without doing any math. This is essential for multitablers.

-Someone moved allin and I have a draw, fold...next table.
-I am heads-up against an allin player and I'm an underdog to win, fold...next table.

Our brains are trained to recognize patterns, not to perform ICM calculations. When we see one of these patterns, we immediately know what play is usually correct.

When we see 2 of these patterns and they both indicate fold, we can be quite certain that folding is correct. No further thought is required. No math is required. What are the chances this is an exception to both patterns?

In fact, it is an exception. You are giving up some $EV by folding.

Of course, 8-tabling would not be possible if you stopped using pattern recognition to make decisions. It's worth it to miss small opportunities like this so you can play more tables. We have trained our brains NOT to look for exceptions. It just takes too long and the benefits are usually small.

What we need is another pattern to look for:
- Tiny stack moves allin on flop and I have a big stack and outs.

Justification of pattern: This is on the flop, so there is money in the pot, so I might be getting good odds. Since his stack is tiny, his allin might not indicate any particular strength. Since I have a big stack, losing probably isn't going to hurt me a lot.

So now 2 patterns say fold, and 1 says call. What now?

Now your brain recognizes the conflict and raises a red flag. It doesn't immediately know what to do. You can either just pick randomly (its probably close and you have 7 other tables open), or you can stop and do some math in your head.

If you have the luxury to stop and think, this is a call.

[steeser]

If there is any chance that your 9 or T is an out, then I think it's a call. Since I believe there is a 50% chance of that being true, easy call.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
Sheesh. That's all I should say here, but I will add that there is only one person in this thread so far that is solidly agreeing with Irie.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we can ignore the guy who who seems to think Irie killed his dog, I'm still curious about pot odds. At what pot odds are you calling? Surely you call getting 6:1. How about 5:1? 4:1? 3:1? I can't buy the notion that you never call an all in with a draw.

[Scuba Chuck]

Phil VS, you are obviously not 8 tabling right now [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Very interesting response, and obviously, well thought out.

[The Yugoslavian]

Interesting Phil....I think I'd be more likely to call *during* the game as my pattern recognition map would say 'he has to push at this b/c he's desperate, I have tons of outs and plenty of chips...I'll be the table leader if I call' - I call.

However, after looking at the numbers and realizing that they are so marginal. Like I said, I believe in CEV your giving up at most ~50 chips here - in terms of $EV, since you knock someone out I think ICM may be giving too much weight to these 50 chips gained (it usually does the opposite to marginal +CEV situations)...but I think it's basically inconsequential b/c of how close it is...this is where you have to consider the game situations. If you can win the blinds just once more on average by folding here instead of calling, then it will have been worth it IMO.

Yugoslav

[nokona13]

What about the fact that even though there's no implied odds, you're getting exactly correct pot odds to call the OESD with two cards to come (2.1:1). Given the possibility that you're opponent is on a bluff or has an 8 or 6 and your 6 9/T outs are good, doesn't that make this a very +CEV call? Since the 330 lost will hardly affect your chip position, but it would be really nice to get to 3000 and be the dominant chip leader, might this not be one of those good spots to call an all in with a draw?

[Paul2432]

Does anyone bet out here? This looks like a good semi-bluff opportunity to me.

Paul

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
doesn't that make this a very +CEV call?


[/ QUOTE ]

If +50 chips is very +CEV, then yes....I suppose it might very well be.

[ QUOTE ]

Since the 330 lost will hardly affect your chip position, but it would be really nice to get to 3000


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you're off a couple hundred chips here....but sure, being the big stack is nice (technically you are alread [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]).

Also, FWIW, you drop to third largest stack if you call and lose....to put it in a bit more perspective.

[ QUOTE ]

and be the dominant chip leader, might this not be one of those good spots to call an all in with a draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think calling is necessarily a big mistake. I think folding is better for many of the reasons I mentioned plus a couple Irie mentioned.

Frankly, the person who should be able to end this thread is Lorinda...but I'm not sure it's worth Lori's time to try and sort this all out for us.

Yugoslav

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone bet out here? This looks like a good semi-bluff opportunity to me.

Paul

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought the exact same thing as soon as I saw first post. I was wondering if anyone else would think so.