player or plumber ???

[bobneptune]

an interesting hand for me today in a $50 buy in nl tourney with 430 players. top 50 get paid $125 and up.

in the middle of the second hour with ~ 140 players left i have 2700 with the blinds @ 150 & 75 with an M of 12 and a Q of 0.9. , so i'm in decent shape, but i'm looking to accumulate chips asap.

within the last 8 hands my M was 3 but i luckily caught JJ and KK and showed the hands when i pushed both times.

now , to the hand. i'm in the BB and get dealt Ad9d. utg and utg+1 both limp. both these guys have been splashing around with drawing hands and had raised any time they had shown down mid-big pairs or high cards. the button (with $6,000 in chips) raises to $500, the sm blind folds.

from their previous action, i am certain the 2 limpers are folding to the raise, so i'm not worrying about a sandwich.

there is now $1,025 in the pot (including the blinds) and it costs me $350 to call. the pot odds are offering almost 3:1 to call and the only hand that has me beaten by more than 3:1 is AA, so folding is not an option.

the question is : call, raise or push. opinions ???

i chose to just call thinking if i miss the flop completely i can get away from the hand and still have an M of around 10. if i hit the ace on the flop, i'm probably the favorite and if diamonds come, i'm drawing to the nutz.

the flop comes KdQd2s. i check to try for the free card and my opponent raises $500.

what does my opponent have ??? he could have missed the flop entirely and be making a standard continuation bet after my check showed weakness. although this was possible , i thought he likely held something like AJ, AQ , AK , KQ or KJ and was ahead at this point, however the pot was offering $1,875/500 for the call, so i had to go on.

being out of position , i decided to check raise him all in figuring there was a fair chance he'd fold to a $1,700 raise and if he called, i had a 39% chance if making the pure nutz with a diamond and had some discounted outs to the ace so i was probably like a 45:55 dog if he called and the pot was offering way more than that.

how was that line of reasoning and how would have you played this hand ???

the results : my opponent called and turned over KJo and his kings held up.

comments ???

[AceofSpades]

Why do you think he's gonna fold top pair of a hand that he raised with on a fairly non-scary board against a raise from one opponent? especially with a flush draw on it?

call if you have odds, fold if you don't.

now if you have two other opponent with you then pushing is a good move, especially if your ace is good...

[bobneptune]

hello ace,

first of all, thanks for the reply. much appreciated. your reasoning is sound, but a couple of questions :

you asked why i thought he'd fold top pair, and i didn't think he would, but in my mind it wasn't a certainty he had top pair. he reasonably could have raised 2 limpers pre flop with AJ, AQ or any pr. from JJ-88 where he had a gut shot draw, hit middle pr. or was value betting , but staring down the barrell of 2 overcards on the flop where the BB had called his raise after 2 limps implying strength/hi cards.

i reasoned (perhaps incorrectly) there were a significant number of his possible holdings that would have had a tough time calling a push. even if he did call, i had him nutted 39% of the time with the diamond draw and maybe had outs to my ace. i was also out of position and was more interested in ending the hand early, rather than watch it unfold. of course, i didn't want it to end early with me broke :-> :-> :->

however, i see the logic of your point that just calling allows me to escape with 60% of my stack if the turn is blank.

also, what hand strength would you need with an M of 12 and a Q of 0.9 in the big blind to re raise all in pre flop in that situation ? QQ or better ???

again... many thanks......

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
an interesting hand for me today in a $50 buy in nl tourney with 430 players. top 50 get paid $125 and up.

in the middle of the second hour with ~ 140 players left i have 2700 with the blinds @ 150 & 75 with an M of 12 and a Q of 0.9. , so i'm in decent shape, but i'm looking to accumulate chips asap.

within the last 8 hands my M was 3 but i luckily caught JJ and KK and showed the hands when i pushed both times.

now , to the hand. i'm in the BB and get dealt Ad9d. utg and utg+1 both limp. both these guys have been splashing around with drawing hands and had raised any time they had shown down mid-big pairs or high cards. the button (with $6,000 in chips) raises to $500, the sm blind folds.

from their previous action, i am certain the 2 limpers are folding to the raise, so i'm not worrying about a sandwich.

there is now $1,025 in the pot (including the blinds) and it costs me $350 to call. the pot odds are offering almost 3:1 to call and the only hand that has me beaten by more than 3:1 is AA, so folding is not an option.

the question is : call, raise or push. opinions ???

i chose to just call thinking if i miss the flop completely i can get away from the hand and still have an M of around 10. if i hit the ace on the flop, i'm probably the favorite and if diamonds come, i'm drawing to the nutz.

the flop comes KdQd2s. i check to try for the free card and my opponent raises $500.

what does my opponent have ??? he could have missed the flop entirely and be making a standard continuation bet after my check showed weakness. although this was possible , i thought he likely held something like AJ, AQ , AK , KQ or KJ and was ahead at this point, however the pot was offering $1,875/500 for the call, so i had to go on.

being out of position , i decided to check raise him all in figuring there was a fair chance he'd fold to a $1,700 raise and if he called, i had a 39% chance if making the pure nutz with a diamond and had some discounted outs to the ace so i was probably like a 45:55 dog if he called and the pot was offering way more than that.

how was that line of reasoning and how would have you played this hand ???

the results : my opponent called and turned over KJo and his kings held up.

comments ???

[/ QUOTE ]

Read the FAQ.

Without reading your post, you've already made two mistakes. Don't tell us results. Your explanation of the hand takes too long to read and is hard to read. Use the hand converter, or sumarize more.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]

from their previous action, i am certain the 2 limpers are folding to the raise, so i'm not worrying about a sandwich.

there is now $1,025 in the pot (including the blinds) and it costs me $350 to call. the pot odds are offering almost 3:1 to call and the only hand that has me beaten by more than 3:1 is AA, so folding is not an option.


[/ QUOTE ]

Folding is always an option.

This is a pretty easy fold for me. You don't wanna get involved with LAGs unless you have a good hand. Also, what do you think the button is raising them with? Chances are, an ace that dominates you, or possibly a pair 9s or better.

The limpers folding is even more reason for you to fold. You will be out of position, playing for a small pot. Sure you're getting 3 to 1 which is nice, but villian could have you dominated with a lot of holdings. You're also out of position. Just fold.

[ QUOTE ]


the flop comes KdQd2s. i check to try for the free card and my opponent raises $500.



[/ QUOTE ]

I would have bet this flop. You're definatly not getting a free card from an oponent with half a brain, he should (rightly) continuation bet. I would have bet into him 2/3 the pot. This is called a semi bluff. His reaction would also give you A LOT of information. If he just calls you know he might have just been tryint to steal. If he raises you, its big heap trouble and depending on the raise you might have to fold. Betting into villian here also gives you a shot at possibly taking a free turn if he thinks you're gonna c/r him. It's all about your read at the time.
[ QUOTE ]

what does my opponent have ??? he could have missed the flop entirely and be making a standard continuation bet after my check showed weakness. although this was possible , i thought he likely held something like AJ, AQ , AK , KQ or KJ and was ahead at this point, however the pot was offering $1,875/500 for the call, so i had to go on.


[/ QUOTE ]

Getting 3 to 1 does not mean you have to call, at all. What's your chance of making your flush on the turn? ~17% That means you need better than 4 to 1. Yeah you have some A outs, but villian could also have an A, so i'd only give myself credit for at most 2 outs, but really only 1. This isn't a limit ring game, you don't make decisions based on the flop+turn odds of making a hand, you evaluate each phase individually. You could have folded here too.

[ QUOTE ]


i decided to check raise him all in figuring there was a fair chance he'd fold to a $1,700 raise and if he called, i had a 39% chance if making the pure nutz with a diamond and had some discounted outs to the ace so i was probably like a 45:55 dog if he called and the pot was offering way more than that.


[/ QUOTE ]

Your chances of making the flush are only 35%. I'm not sure where you get 39%. I'm not sure where you get 45/55 dog, you're probably up against a made hand, so your chances are... 35/65. Assuming he doesnt have a diamond. Your A high will pretty much never be good here. You need to go check up on your odds tables or whatever.

All you did by check/raising him was commit him to the pot. You're not folding a hand, like ever here. If you wanted a chance to do that, you'd have to open push I guess, or something.

You gave villian 2 to 1 odds, that's not exactly a huge overbet. He's probably gonna call with top pair or maybe even AQ (or any reasonable second pair). It's verly likely one of those flop cards hit him.

[kuro]

Fold pre-flop. You're not closing the action so you can't even guarantee you'll get to see the flop. Even when you do see the flop A9s is very hard to play out of position with your stack size. You fold the best hand or get stacked by a better hand just too much here.