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  #11  
Old 12-13-2005, 11:20 AM
Winwood Winwood is offline
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Default Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting

Hi tigerite,

Do you mean he will call the vast majority of the time if he understands ICM, or he will call whether he does or not?
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  #12  
Old 12-13-2005, 11:22 AM
tigerite tigerite is offline
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Default Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting

Come on, he has to call 1100 to win (600+300+150+1700) = 2750. Do you people really think he's going to fold a lot?

By ICM, he certainly shouldn't fold a lot. I think he would only need to win in the region of 38-40% of the time to call, actually.
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  #13  
Old 12-13-2005, 11:23 AM
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Default Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting

We have been given a read by the OP remember:

[ QUOTE ]
Big stack has been minraising often and generally folded when played back at.

[/ QUOTE ]

Therefore it's unlikely he calls 99.9% of the time as stated...
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  #14  
Old 12-13-2005, 11:26 AM
tigerite tigerite is offline
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Default Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting

LOL I was way out. Try under 33%. Still think he's folding?

If he has something like 97s here, he should even call.
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  #15  
Old 12-13-2005, 11:26 AM
kevkev60614 kevkev60614 is offline
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Default Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting

I think you need for him to fold about 40% of the time to make a push right.
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  #16  
Old 12-13-2005, 11:27 AM
tigerite tigerite is offline
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Default Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting

[ QUOTE ]
We have been given a read by the OP remember:

[ QUOTE ]
Big stack has been minraising often and generally folded when played back at.

[/ QUOTE ]

Therefore it's unlikely he calls 99.9% of the time as stated...

[/ QUOTE ]

Considering the only person who has likely been "playing back at him" is the current BB (look at the stacks), that is an entirely different situation.
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  #17  
Old 12-13-2005, 11:33 AM
Winwood Winwood is offline
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Default Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting

[ QUOTE ]
LOL I was way out. Try under 33%. Still think he's folding?

If he has something like 97s here, he should even call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if he should call with 97s that doesn't mean he will. This was what I was getting at with my question earlier. BTW do we know the buy-in? I didn't see it, but if this is a 10 or 20 (and add OP's read of this player) I think there's a good chance of this player making a mistake and folding something like 97s or maybe something even stronger
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  #18  
Old 12-13-2005, 11:37 AM
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Default Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting

If he had made a normal 3xbb raise, he'd be facing an 800 call to win 3050.

This should make you realize that any raise from the big stack basically prices him into the pot and is essentially an all-in play.
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  #19  
Old 12-13-2005, 11:38 AM
Postiga Postiga is offline
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Default Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting

The thing that's influencing me the most is that you're effectively also a shortstack, and if you keep folding the "real" shortstack could overtake you before you know it. He goes all next hand with JT, the BB calls with 8 5 and loses, and all of a sudden you're a favourite to go out next. Say the short stack went out next hand. With you're current stack you'll have very little fold equity when the blinds go to 200/400, especially if you don't steal before you're next session in the blinds. Win this pot and you can make a run at first, which is "where all the money is".
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  #20  
Old 12-13-2005, 11:39 AM
tigerite tigerite is offline
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Default Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting

Correct. That's what I was trying to say, but people still think he will fold getting almost 3:1 odds - even with him "min raising" instead of the standard 3xbb.

Also, the fact he's been played back at may make it even more likely he has a hand here, because maybe he's fed up of it. At the least, I think it makes it more likely he'll fold just to show the others "I will make a stand now, so don't do it again". Let's be honest, even losing here doesn't hurt him very much at all.
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