How Badly Did I Play This TT?

[Los Feliz Slim]

Villain is very loose (61%), but has bluffed a lot (wins money 40% at showdown). When I cap the flop and he bets out on the turn is this an easy fold, or would you have called him down? Or had I already loused it up?

PokerRoom 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (11.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.25 BB

[SnglMaltScotch]

I think that calling down against this opponent is OK. You only need to be good 10% against a random bluffer here.

MP3 folded on the flop.

Is the read for UTG+1?

[Los Feliz Slim]

[ QUOTE ]
MP3 folded on the flop.

Is the read for UTG+1?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, yes.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
MP3 folded on the flop.

Is the read for UTG+1?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd grit my teeth and call down.

[Redd]

Even assuming that it's converged, I don't understand how his W$SD is correlated to bluffing frequency? What is his AF like?

In position, I might be tempted to just call down from the 3-bet if Villain is reasonably passive, betting if checked to. I'm unsure how often a typical 3/6er 3-bets 33-88 here, though.

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that calling down against this opponent is OK. You only need to be good 10% against a random bluffer here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain will always continue to bluff on the river, then he needs to be good 20% of the time, not 10%, since we will have to call two more bets. 20% is a lot, but given the read it is not impossible. If he will never continue to bluff on the river, then we can call profittably here and fold on the river. (That does not seem to apply.) If he will only sometimes continue a bluff, then we have to fold here. (This, too, likely does not apply.)

So is he bluffing 20% of the time? I have no idea, but calling down probably is not terribly costly given your read.