How many hands is enough?

Go Blue · #1 12-09-2005, 12:59 PM

Let's say I'm running breakeven since moving up to a certain limit (full ring). For how many hands should I be running breakeven after which there's a very good chance it's no longer variance and it's actually bad play? 10k? 20k? 50k?

krimson · #2 12-09-2005, 01:09 PM

I wouldn't jump to any conclusions over 10k hands. After 20k, I think you can start questioning it quite a bit more.
If your breaking even over 50k it's pretty likely that you're playing poorly.

However. You should start questioning your play and looking to improve after 0 hands.

Rootabager · #3 12-09-2005, 01:31 PM

yeh 10k is really nothing, go with around 50.

Go Blue · #4 12-09-2005, 01:48 PM

Well, I have about 15k hands logged in at this level, and it looks like a sine wave pretty much. I'm up less than 25 BB right now. I'm still not worrying yet about anything, and I KNOW that I'm getting unlucky. The question is, though, is if I'm getting unlucky more than I should be or as much as I should be. That's what I hate about poker is how you really don't know, except what you can infer from the PT info.

Brom · #5 12-09-2005, 01:51 PM

I personally wouldn't go much past the 10-20k range. Even though that amount of hands isn't really enough to be conclusive on anything, it should at least be indicative. And even though I have had breakeven streaks of that length, I feel that it a really long time to go without winning any money. I use my winnings to pay some of the bills, and I need to be winning at a fairly constant rate. If you were a winner at the limit below that of which you are taking a shot at, then I'd suggest moving back down there where your edge is higher and get some money flowing again. After the confidence boost and recheck on skills, try taking another shot. Remember the new limit will always be there, so don't feel too rushed.

#6 12-09-2005, 02:47 PM

Rather than wait until that many hands to find out whether it was your play or due to varience, I think it's a good idea to looking at yourself now.

Start reviewing your own hands in the replayer in PT (I don't know of any other), post some hands in here, read these boards, and reread SSHE.

Everyone can improve in some way, so it certainly won't hurt to stop or slow down and evaluate yourself now.

In the mean time, maybe you should drop down a level.

Octopus · #7 12-09-2005, 03:13 PM

Over my last 64,000 hands (since the beginning of the year) I am +2.02BB/100. In that 64,000 hands is a breakeven stretch lasting 28,600 hands. Draw whatever conclusions you will from this. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Go Blue · #8 12-09-2005, 10:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Over my last 64,000 hands (since the beginning of the year) I am +2.02BB/100. In that 64,000 hands is a breakeven stretch lasting 28,600 hands. Draw whatever conclusions you will from this. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah that's definitely an answer that I was looking for. I think that a lot of people, if they are winners, assume to start a level with a good upswing and hit a downswing or a breakeven stretch later on. At the limit below my current one, it wasn't until after I played 10k hands that my graph started to look decent. For the first 10k hands, I was breakeven as well. As for those of you that are telling me to move down, I know it's because you think there are too many TAGs as it is as 2/4, 3/6, etc. That's what I think too. So thanks but no thanks...yet. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

oxymoron · #9 12-09-2005, 10:25 PM

My stats are goofy but also not enough hands. It shows that at 10k for $1/$2 FR I'm a slight loser and at $2/$4 at 10k I'm a slight winner and recently I've been killing 5/10 (but that will drop).

For shorthanded it's the opposite. I was killing 1/2 and getting my arse kicked at 2/4.

I know that part of it is running bad but I also know that after some bad beats I was playing more passive than I should. I re-read SSHE and some of my other books and it helped. I didn't move down I just slowed down and did more studying. It seemed to help and recently my numbers have been getting back to where they should be at.

xwillience · #10 12-09-2005, 10:26 PM

1, if you lose one hand its all over and you should stop playing poker.

But i agree that after about 15-20k hands you should be able to at least get an idea of whats going on. If you cant find very many detrimental mistakes maybe play another 10k and re-evaluate