stressed out to the max

[stupidsucker]

I must be offically on tilt.
I dont feel like I am playign bad, but I must be.

I am getting crushed at the 22s..

I have been playign this game as my only source of income for over a year now and I dont see how I can possibly be a loser.

Top this bad run

413 games
-$106
-1.17% roi

has anyone seen me at the tables... am I making any major mistakes..

I am a prideful man, and this isnt an all out complain post, but rather a plee for help that ANYONE has suffered a run like this at the low limits...

I can not understand.

Is it possible to be this unlucky.... and if so... what is the statistical element involved.

I know I am making mistakes, but anyone that can say they never make a mistake is a liar.

If there were a way to prove it I would wager that I have taken the worst of it as a favorite a ridicuklous amount.

what scares me... is

that is what the fish say right?

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
I am playing bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

That said, it took me about a week and my entire bankroll to finally come to terms with the fact that I was playing on tilt due to some real world issues I am facing.

Even the smallest shift in your game play can result in serious suckage.

Take a few days off.

[Freudian]

I had a breakeven streak of 500 games at the $22s. Outside that I haven't even had a breakeven streak of 100 games but have been solidly winning all the time with minor bumps where I have bounced back very quickly.

If your SnG history except this streak tells you that you are a winning player, most likely you are. Doesn't feel like it when you are in the eye of the storm though.

[axeshigh]

I'd check what your finish distribution looks like for starters and review the HHs of all the times you bust in 8-10 or 4th. If you don't spot anything wrong maybe post some hands you aren't sure about, etc.

I realize this is none of my business, but I wouldn't be comfortable playing as my only source of income at the 22s... I would need 15% ROI over 2000 SnGs at the 55s or at the very least the 33s 8-tabling.

Hope this helps at all.

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
Take a few days off.


[/ QUOTE ]

This run has been goign on since June... I have had time off after time off after time off...

I dont feel I am playing "bad" that is the problem I guess.

If I felt I was playing bad then this would eb an easy fix.

I feel I am playing 20%+ roi poker at the 22s and I am getting crushed.

I was astounded to see that my run has gone on this long.

I am trying to remain sane, but I have never heard of a proven winning player having this kind of run at this low of level...

either
A) I am playing bad and I dont know it
B) an even run over 413 games is statistacly not improbable
C) I am one of the unluckiest poker players ever. (This is how I feel)

I get as upset as the next guy when someone goes on complaining about their bad luck, but ejsus thuis wont end.

I feel if you took my entire lifetime sample size I would be running about 20% below the chip EV I should be or greater.

I know how often AK should be Ax, but It is becoming a huge mental problem for me. I cant win.

[flyingmoose]

First thing's first: Calm down!

You're probably on a bad run of cards, and it probably has affected your game. But you're still making money with rakeback; it's not like your roll is at risk.

Take a day or two off; find a video game you like, get high, go to a strip club.

After you feel analytical again, post some hand histories. I'll personally look some over for you when I finish finals in a week, if you would like.

You've been paying the bils with poker for a year, so you know you're a winning player. Remember that. It's almost impossible to break out of a downswing when you don't feel like a winner.

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
I had a breakeven streak of 500 games at the $22s.

[/ QUOTE ]

well this is comforting.. I have every intention of of running my bankroll into the ground. I feel I am playign fine poker.

Perfect poker? no way.

thanks freudian.

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd check what your finish distribution looks like for starters

[/ QUOTE ]
1-40
2-43
3-60
4-65
5-59
6-52
7-35
8-26
9-26
10-7

I know what you are thinking by looking at my dist..

you would be very wrong if you thought I didnt play for first.

my ITM is 34.62% ... The 3rds are KILLING ME

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't be comfortable playing as my only source of income at the 22s

[/ QUOTE ]

why?

a 20% roi for 1k games a month at the 22s is a very nice income. It is supposed to be easy too.

I am a no frill guy. I dont need a large income to be happy. (although I want to change this so I can buy a house before i turn 30)

[tigerite]

I'm not sure if I've seen you at the $22s or not, is it just 'stupidsucker' or some other screen name?

[bones]

[ QUOTE ]
It is supposed to be easy too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Poker isn't easy. My major beef with this forum is all of the ridiculous hyperbole about how easy poker is. At least once a day someone says something ridiculous like "I can teach a 9 year old with lupus how to beat the 55s" or "Anyone should be able to beat the 22s for 25% roi."

By reading, studying, observing, and thinking about poker, you set yourself up to have a series of small edges over your opponents, edges that are hopefully greater than the rake. Yet your edges are still small. Casinos have been known to post losing quarters, and they have many more trials than we have to exploit their edges.

Your play probably has deteriorated somewhat, but in all likelyhood, you're still a winning player. I realize that "hang in there" is neither comforting nor particularly helpful advice, but aside from reviewing hands and trying to get the positive mindset, it's the only advice out there.

Best of luck.