That seems like a bad river card, live 20/40

[W. Deranged]

I think a tilting tightish player is probably convincing himself to call down with a pair here on the turn most of the time. The only other thing he could be thinking about would be waiting till the river to raise an A, I guess. I don't think he has a flush draw given the delay.

Are you totally confident your opponent would not bet a 9 or other pair if checked to? Probably not. Seeing he called with those hands on the turn, he seems committed to calling on the river. The chance your opponent has a J with his pair or whatever is one I'm willing to take.

Bet-fold.

[Shillx]

If the guy is not tilting I would just check and fold since he probably isn't going to call again on 4th street with just a nine. A tilting player will probably make this call, but that still doesn't mean that you should bet the river. If he will have a flush 50% of the time and a worse hand that pays off 50% of the time, it makes no difference what you do (assuming that he never bets a worse hand).

It seems to me that you are going to be 2nd best here more then you will be winning. If the guy will not bet 9x when you check to him, I would check and fold here even if I knew he was on tilt. If he would bet the nine some of the time I would go ahead and bet-fold. Overall I feel like you will be a big underdog when he bets, so I would still check and fold on the end.

Brad

[DeathDonkey]

Good analysis. But why isn't that river card a perfect one to induce a bluff? I disagree that I will be a big dog if he bets.

-DeathDonkey

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Good analysis. But why isn't that river card a perfect one to induce a bluff? I disagree that I will be a big dog if he bets.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

Would this villain bet a 9 here for value or with the specific purpose of folding a pocket pair like TT? Seems unlikely. I don't think there are many hands he gets to with the river that would be "bluffing" hands.

Basically, the hand range you can expect villain to put you on is too narrow to think he'll bluff often. So I think betting is better.

[Shillx]

But why isn't that river card a perfect one to induce a bluff?

I don't quite follow here. Do you mean induce a bluff with something like Q9 or a true stone bluff?

It seems to me that he isn't going to have a hand worth "bluffing" very often. If he was drawing to a flush...it came in. There wasn't a straight draw on the flop so that is out of the question. So if he is bluffing here, it would seem that he would have to have at least aces up. If he has aces & nines I feel like he will just check behind since you will throw KQ away and call with QQ or KJ or Ax or whatever. If he bets I have a feeling that you are going to look at either trips or a flush the vast majority of the time. Now I could be wrong and misinterpreting the read but it seems like there is little that he would payoff here that you beat. You would certainly win << 50% if you are called (or raised).

Brad

[DeathDonkey]

Ok, well I guess I got lucky then. I thought at the time that would be a great card to let him bluff at, so I check/called and he bluff bet his pair of 5s.

-DeathDonkey

[BigEndian]

I would guess he's thinking the likely-hood you have an ace just went down, bet the river and fold to raise.

- Jim