How good is your maths?

#1 12-13-2005, 12:49 AM

I'd like to get math opinions on this issue, so please leave PF issues aside. I'm testing my math skills and would like to see what you guys come up with.

That said...I'm playing Party Super Monday. I am sitting at an uber-tight table. I have not played a hand in 30 minutes.

75/150 blinds. I have 3000 chips, Button has 5000.

I am dealt T3o UTG. I min raise to 300. Button calls. SB folds, BB calls. Pot: T975

Flop: KJ7 rainbow.
BB checks, I bet 550, button calls, BB folds. Pot: T2075

Turn: 9
I move in for another 2150.

Alright I know you all hate the play...but here is my question.

What % of time does button need to fold to make this a profitable play? I think I know the answer, but would appreciate input.

#2 12-13-2005, 12:57 AM

you played perfectly.
X is the probability he folds.

Assume that every time he calls you lose (and I think this assumption is fair), your EV is 2075*X - 2150*(1-X)
For this to be profitable, EV needs to be positive, so just solve for X: 4225X = 2150 X = 2150/4225 = ~.5
he needs to fold approximately 1/2 the time for it to be profitable. P.S. he won't fold 1/2 of the time.

#3 12-13-2005, 12:59 AM

NHFunkii,
I have 4 outs to a straight. (4 eights).

yvesaint · #4 12-13-2005, 01:01 AM

4 Qs

Exitonly · #5 12-13-2005, 01:21 AM

figure out your % vs his range of hands that calls you. You have 4 outs so .. roughly 8%.

So when you push and he calls: (.08 * 4225 =338) - (.98 * 2150=2107) = -1769
when you push and he folds you're worth: 4225

so (X% * 4225) + [(1-X%) * -1729]

4225x + 1729x - 1729

5954x - 1729 > 0

5954x > 1729
x > 1729/5954

x > 29%

so if he folds more than 29% you're profitable.

i think.

edit: didn't couunt the Q's as outs. adjust accordingly.

#6 12-13-2005, 06:57 AM

OK. Let's break it down.

If he calls, you have 4 outs to win 4225 (2075+2150). The rest you lose 2150. That gives you an EV when he calls of (4/46*4225)-(42/46*2150) or -1596.

If we call the chance that he folds X, then your EV for pushing is X*2075+(1-X)*-1596. Solve that for EV=0 (where you break even) and you get X = 0.435. So if he folds more than 43.5% of the time you should win in the long run.

AlphaWice · #7 12-13-2005, 08:58 AM

this is an awful play btw, i hope you understand that

schwza · #8 12-13-2005, 12:07 PM

w/o reading, and typing as i think.

you're 1/6 to hit. so you're ok putting in a 1/4 pot bet. the last 3/4 pot (1500) you put in at 1/6 to win, and (1/2-1/6)*2 = 2/3 = 1000. you lose 1000 when called, gain 2000 when not, so you need to steal 1/3. (obv. this ignores hitting and losing, checking and getting a free card, etc)

wow, woulda guessed it'd be higher.