Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Fifteen

[jedinite]

Last Week a disappointing 1-3 including a loss on game of the week. I thought I'd done the appropriate amount of research despite being in Vegas, but the results obviously prove otherwise. The worst week of the season for my picks. However, both the game of the week (Chicago) and the #3 game (Rams) were both inside a single possession at the end from covering or pushing, but its not like we get any credit for "close but not quite". Entering the week I was +13.45 units, and lost 11.1 units in last week's debacle. I was bailed out by a three team teaser for five units that I placed via vegas (Rams +17 Chicago +16.5 Detroit +16) but due to not posting it here I won't claim that result and will tag the -11.1 on the tracked results. I do expect a strong rebound this week, a lot of games are identified as strong plays.

Last Week: 1-3, loss on Game of the Week. -11.1 units on recommended plays.
Season: 9-5 (64%) on Game of the Week. 30-29 (50.8%) on overall picks. +2.35 posted units for the season

Recommending 5-4-3-2-1 plays this week. As usual all lines current from Bodog but please lineshop aggressively.

Kansas City +3 at New York Football Giants
This is a must-win for KC. Chiefs are 8-5 and have their next two games at home (where they are 5-1 this season) so if they can pull off this upset they have a very good shot at sneaking in to the playoffs by winning out (KC clenches a playoff spot by winning out). The Giants have injuries to two key offensive linemen, left tackle Luke Petitgout (back) and right tackle Kareem McKenzie (hamstring) - both are currently "questionable" and even if they do play will be limited. The Giants barely survived an overtime game against injury-depleted Philadelphia last week, while KC lost a heartbreaker to Dallas, missing a last-second FG which would have sent the game to overtime. KC is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games. KC will exploit the middle of the Giants defense, targeting the gap left by injuries to key defensive players MLB Antonio Pierce and RDT William Joseph. The Giants will leave points on the table due to ineffieciencies in the red zone which will be the difference: Manning has a passer rating of 58.7 in the red zone, and Giants kicker Feely has missed four fieldgoals in eleven attempts over the past three weeks. Last week, three times Giants red-zone possessions ended in field goals when touchdowns would have put the game against Philly out of reach. The Giants have also had significant trouble against the AFC West this season: In week three, they surrendered 45 points and 268 rushing yards in San Diego, and in week seven, the Broncos put 23 points and 191 rushing yards on the board in Giants Stadium. Both of those teams are very similar offensively to the Chiefs: powered by a strong running game with a solid passing attack to back it up. Larry Johnson leads the NFL in rushing since the time of the Priest Holmes injury, and he's going to drop a huge game on the Giants this week. There are a number of trends against the Chiefs here (KC is 0-5 at the Meadowlands, KC is 3-8 on the road in December under Vermeil, for example) but I believe those are going to be regressing to the mean this weekend. Chiefs 34, Giants 30 for the outright win. Game of the Week.

Dallas +3 at Washington
With both teams, 10 of their 13 games have been decided by seven points or fewer, including Washington's 14-13 victory in Dallas in Week 2. This is a huge game for both teams: whichever team loses is essentially elimiated from the playoffs, which essentially makes this a playoff game in its own right. But Dallas will be better prepared and better coached, and will cover this game if not win it outright (and I expect a push at worst) . DAL is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with Washington, Washington is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games. Dallas will stuff Portis and force Washington to be one-dimensional, and will double-cover Moss most of the day. On offense, Dallas faces many favorable matchups against an injury-depleted Washington defense. The Cowboys have won 14 of the last 16 meetings with Washington. 17-13 Dallas for the outright win.

Chicago -3 vs Atlanta
Chicago: NFL's #1 defense (#7 vs the rush before last week's blasting by the Steelers, now ranked #9 after that game) and #7 rushing offense. Atlanta: NFL's #1 rushing offense but #22 rushing defense. In the series versus the Falcons, Chicago has posted four straight wins at Soldier Field and seven victories in the last eight meetings. In 2001 and 2002 against Vick, Chicago MLB Brian Urlacher had three sacks, three forced fumbles, an interception and a 90-yard fumble return for a touchdown. Those were two of the best games of Urlacher's career. And, for the first time, Urlacher gets to play Vick in Chicago, where temperatures are supposed to be in the teens. Vick will also be hampered by his bruised ribs and will start but likely will not finish the game. The right side of the Falcons defense is injured ( Brady Smith and Antwan Lake) so look for Thomas Jones and Adrian Peterson to run off left guard and left tackle all day. Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Injuries to the Chicago starting safeties is the only thing keeping this game from being ranked higher. The -3 is almost irrelevant, as no one's going to be kicking any fieldgoals in this game. 14-7 Chicago.

Pittsburgh -3.5 at Minnesota
NFL's #4 rushing defense (#8 overall) should stifle the Vikings run game and not allow them to setup their bread-and-butter play action passing plays. The Pittsburgh 3-4 should present numerous problems for the Vikings offensive line. Most importantly, the Vikings have beaten only one team with a winning record this year (their miraculous victory over the Giants, where they scored three times on special teams/defense). Steelers speedster Willie Parker will have a big game on the Metrodome turf. Both teams are in must-win to keep their playoff hopes alive, and Pittsburgh is going to come out on top big time. 20-14 Steelers.

Arizona -1 at Houston
NFL's #1 passing attack rolls in to one of the NFL's worst defenses. Arizona is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games in Dec, while Houston is 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Houston's only potent offensive weapon, RB Dominic Davis, is injured and is not expected to play (swelling in his knee, will be a gametime decision). Houston's #2 offfensive threat Andre Johnson was limited in practice all week due to soreness in his leg (the same nagging injury that's cost him much of this season). The Texan's most important goal for the remaining three games of the season is to not win and push themselves out of the #1 draft pick spot: while they might not chose to draft Bush with Davis in the backfield, they should be able to trade Reggie Bush for a significant upgrade across their offensive line, which is what the team needs the most. 17-14 Arizona.

Tease of the Week: KC +9 Dallas +9
Five unit tease. The games themselves have value, and the added value of moving these games across winning at +3 and winning on +7 is significant enough to recommend rolling them in to the tease of the week.

[jedinite]

I tallied unit results for the year (i didn't start directly recording weekly per unit results on 2p2 until midseason), and posted them on my blog. Cross-posted here:

Week : Units+ | Units- | WeekNet | YearNet | Record | GotW
1: +5 -6.6 -1.6 -1.6 1-3 W
2: +9 -4.4 +4.6 +3 4-3 W
3: +4 -7.7 -3.7 -.7 2-2 L
4: +7 -8.8 -1.8 -2.5 2-2 W
5: +4 -5.5 -1.5 -4 2-1-1 L
6: +9 -5.5 +3.5 -.5 4-2 W
7: +4 -2.2 +1.8 +1.3 3-1 W
8: +16 -3.3 +12.7 +14 3-2 W
9: +5.3 -8.5 -3.2 +10.8 2-3 L
10: +11.25 -7.6 +3.65 +14.45 2-3 W
11: +5 -13.1 -8.1 +6.35 1-3 L
12: +5 -3.1 +1.9 +8.25 1-2-1 W
13: +10 -4.8 +5.2 +13.45 2-2 W
14: +1 -12.1 -11.1 +2.35 1-3 L

[jedinite]

Had a friend ask me for my suggestion on a ten-team teaser he wanted to take as a flier. Here was my pick: I dropped a unit on it myself, so I can play alongside the ~$400 to win $6k that he dropped.

Posted for posterity in case it hits [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Green Bay Packers +10½
Kansas City Chiefs +10
Denver Broncos -2
Pittsburgh Steelers +3½
Indianapolis Colts -½
Seattle Seahawks -½
New York Jets +16
Detroit Lions +15½
Dallas Cowboys +10
Atlanta Falcons +10

I like the inclusion of Atlanta +10 as it gives me a wide middle capability for that game with my existing four unit play of Chicago -3. Chicago wins by 7 as predicted and I win both sides, Chicago wins by 10 and the teaser is still alive (less one team of course).

Green Bay +10.5 is a marginal inclusion I felt, but he wanted me to include a side on the Monday game and I feel the 10.5 is a better play in a game that should result in a single digit win for the Ravens.

id be more comfortable teasing Miami, Cincy, and SD over the Jets, Lions and Colts

[jedinite]

I appreciate the response. Do you have any specific feedback on those games?

I feel the Lions have value at +8.5 already so the tease just adds more value. Cincy -1.5 isn't bad though, I predict that game at a 7-10 point win for Cincy.

Likewise I believe that Indy has big cover capability over the Chargers and believe there's more value in moving that down to essentially a pick'em verus moving the Chargers to a 14.5 underdog. Indy certainly has demonstrated the ability to win by 17 against this caliber of team.

I like the Jets +16 much more than Miami -2. I think this is a close scoring game and moving across the 10 and 14 here is very valuable as I see more possibility for Miami to blow the game somehow compared to the possibility of Miami outscoring the Jets by 17.

The jets are averaging under 7 points a game on the road, and Miami has been pretty impressive the last few weeks. I do like both sides of the tease, but could see the jets gettting shut down in a 24-3 type game before I could see Miami losing this one.

The Bengals game is pretty similar I think. They have so much to play for and the Lions are in chaos. I expect Palmer to bounce back from a bad week and just like the Dolphin game I just could see the Bengals winning 30-10 before I could see them losing is all.

The chargers haven't lose a game by more then 6 points all of last year or this year, including a game where they jumped on Indy and should have put them away but let them back in it. Now given Indys better this year then last and if theres any game the Chargers could lose by this margin its this one, but I also think the Chargers have improved from last despite the record, and if theres anyone with the offensive makeup to keep up with Indy's scoring in Indy its the Chargers.

For what its worth I think all 5 of your spread picks are solid though.

[jedinite]

appreciate the feedback and the added detail.

For anyone following along at home and considering coming along on the "flier", I don't disagree with his logic on those sides of the teasers. I honestly think we're looking at hitting inside the range on these three games in question 90% of the time already, but it might be a safer play to go his direction.

Last week I got inspired by a multi may tease post. I did a 5 team tease and covered 4 of the games easily only to loose the last one by 1pt on the over.. Pats game had 21 pts first 3 quarters and 21 in the 4th. lol i had over 41 for the game.

Here my second try at it..

Kansas City Chiefs +10
Denver Broncos -2
Seattle Seahawks pk
Miami Dolphins -2.5
Carolina Panthers -2.5
Cincinnati Bengals -2
100 to win 500

Good luck to both of us [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[jedinite]

Adding a big tease based on line moves:

Arizona +7
Dallas +13
Chicago +7

To win ten units.

Play within your bankroll - my concept of units is a little different than most as I use a very large gambling bankroll which combines poker and sports, so a unit is not 1% of my bankroll but a fixed dollar amount.

[jedinite]

Keeping an eye on the Detroit line. Currently +9.5 (-105) at Bodog.
Getting very close to jumping to a play on this game.
Will continue to watch and will post if it moves to a play.