|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
Preflop with 88
I'm multitabling with no HUD. With two limpers plus the two raisers, I figured this would be a 5-6 handed pot. With the two raisers, I figured that postflop may find a bunch of bets thrown into the pot. Therefore, I called. Your thoughts?
Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Hero calls ... |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Preflop with 88
I don't like it. You really don't know what The EP's will do with 2 bets coming at them, this may get capped, and you are most certainly behind either the raise or the 3-bet OR both. Say it is 5 handed and everyone stays to the river. Are you good with THIS hand under THESE conditions 1 out of 5 times? The decision to fold here should be automatic.
|
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Preflop with 88
I wouldn't call here without some good reads. Consider first that you have to make up a helluva lot of bets by calling three cold, secondly that players in this game are quite passive, and thirdly that if you hit a set your relative position is very bad.
|
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Preflop with 88
I don't see this getting past 4-handed. With a 3-bet out there I would only expect 1 EP limper to call and don't expect the blinds to enter the pot either.
With that said, I fold... |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Preflop with 88
There's a big difference between 5:1 and 15:3 in the amount of postflop bets you have to make up when you hit your set.
Calling on set value alone here, even if you KNOW you are getting 5 opponents and you know nobody is capping would be wrong. I highly doubt there will be a significant # of times you can win this hand without spiking an 8. I fold. |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Preflop with 88
[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Hero calls ... [/ QUOTE ] This was for set value only. I don't intend to go very far unless I snag my 8. Miss the set 8 times = 24 SB lost Hit the set once = 12-13 SB preflop + 5-6 SB on the flop + 4 SB on the turn + 3 SB on the river = 24-26 won = close enough. Having not played full ring in a few months, I've forgotten a number of estimates that I used to use to determine my postflop implied odds on these sorts of hands. So these numbers which I pulled out of nowhere could be off a little bit. |
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Preflop with 88
You seem to be being a bit generous when estimating the number of bets, which you could expect to collect if you make your set IMHO.
|
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Preflop with 88
[ QUOTE ]
You seem to be being a bit generous when estimating the number of bets, which you could expect to collect if you make your set IMHO. [/ QUOTE ] What your counter-estimate be? (Remember that this is an 'average' guess, so you need to balance the times that you get bonus action and the times you get no action.) |
#9
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Preflop with 88
[ QUOTE ]
What your counter-estimate be? (Remember that this is an 'average' guess, so you need to balance the times that you get bonus action and the times you get no action.) [/ QUOTE ] Ok, firstly I think that it may be a little unreasonable to expect both of the early limpers to call a double bet cold preflop. So I would reduce the estimated number of preflop bets to say about 10sb. Then I would assume that it would be reasonable for both of the preflop raisers to call your flop raise if you made your set. So I would also estimate about 6sb for the flop. However, I would reduce my estimated bets for the turn and river to say one caller. That would make my turn and river estimates about 2sb each. Overall, that would total about 20sb, and make the preflop call unprofitable. I admit though, that it looks closer than I at first thought, and that you would only need an extra call or raise here or there to give you profitable odds. Having said that, we also need to remember that you will not win the pot everytime that you make your set, because sometimes you will be beaten by a straight, flush or better hand. So I dont think that we should be over optimistic when considering the implied odds either. |
#10
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Preflop with 88
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You seem to be being a bit generous when estimating the number of bets, which you could expect to collect if you make your set IMHO. [/ QUOTE ] What your counter-estimate be? (Remember that this is an 'average' guess, so you need to balance the times that you get bonus action and the times you get no action.) [/ QUOTE ] Aaron, The pot size is basically going to be the average pot size when a big field is 3-bet. I'd ballpark maybe 10-11BB, but probably not 13-14. If we also account for the 25% of the time that your set is cracked, we'd need an even bigger average pot, ne c'est pas? |
|
|