A4 fold from SB against BB

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
You're risking much closer to 5BB - hero has 1560 after posting. Risking 5BB to win 1.5BB heads up with an ace is a deal ill take any day of the week.

Gramps is rarely wrong and this is most certainly not one of those times.

[/ QUOTE ]

No wonder I stay out of this forum. Please keep playing aggressively against the big stacks at the table, especially with hands like A4o. That is a surefire way to go bust.

[ghostface]

This can only be push or fold. How can it be argued that limping against the chip leader can be anykind of smart play. What do you do when you limp and the BB pushes? With two shortstacks you have to assume one of them will probably double up unless they both get unlucky or push with dominated hands and dont suckout. I think you fold here if you want to squeek into the money and push if you have any intention of winning.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're risking much closer to 5BB - hero has 1560 after posting. Risking 5BB to win 1.5BB heads up with an ace is a deal ill take any day of the week.

Gramps is rarely wrong and this is most certainly not one of those times.

[/ QUOTE ]

No wonder I stay out of this forum. Please keep playing aggressively against the big stacks at the table, especially with hands like A4o. That is a surefire way to go bust.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about some kind of logical argument? I love to see people argue against what I see as an easy decision (thats when you learn the most, right?), but I hate it when the only arguement is just something like "don't tangle with the bigstack!" or "don't get all your chips in with that kind of hand!". Its kinda like a baseball manager refusing to bring in a lefty to face a righty when the lefty is the best pitcher in the pen against the hitter, because it goes "against the book".

So, lets get logical and mathematical about this. Do you agree with the ICM in general? Lets pick a range of hands the big stack with call with or two, and see how your ICMEV works out here.

First, the basic numbers:
If you fold, your ICMEV is .198
If you push and double up: .304
If you steal: .229
If you push and bust: 0

First, lets assume he'll only call with 55+, A5+, KJ+. This range really has us in trouble when he calls. 18.7% chance of a call. Our odds against this range if called are only 38%.

.813 * (.229) + 0.071 * (.304) + 0.116 * 0 = .207761

Now lets loosen him up a bit and say he will call with any pair, any ace, any broadway, and suited kings. Thats 27.7% of hands, and we are 43.5% to win if he calls.

.723 * (.229) + 0.120495 * (.304) + 0.156505 * 0 = .202197

With the bigstack to your left, you are going to have to steal from him eventually, you can't wait and try to steal from the other stacks. If this were a case where you were deciding on calling the bigstack from your right with a close ICM situation, I could see folding, so you can steal from the shortstacks later. Here, you can't. You can't sit and wait for the shortstacks and you can't avoid the bigstack if you want to gain any chips.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're risking much closer to 5BB - hero has 1560 after posting. Risking 5BB to win 1.5BB heads up with an ace is a deal ill take any day of the week.

Gramps is rarely wrong and this is most certainly not one of those times.

[/ QUOTE ]

No wonder I stay out of this forum. Please keep playing aggressively against the big stacks at the table, especially with hands like A4o. That is a surefire way to go bust.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about some kind of logical argument? I love to see people argue against what I see as an easy decision (thats when you learn the most, right?), but I hate it when the only arguement is just something like "don't tangle with the bigstack!" or "don't get all your chips in with that kind of hand!". Its kinda like a baseball manager refusing to bring in a lefty to face a righty when the lefty is the best pitcher in the pen against the hitter, because it goes "against the book".

So, lets get logical and mathematical about this. Do you agree with the ICM in general? Lets pick a range of hands the big stack with call with or two, and see how your ICMEV works out here.

First, the basic numbers:
If you fold, your ICMEV is .198
If you push and double up: .304
If you steal: .229
If you push and bust: 0

First, lets assume he'll only call with 55+, A5+, KJ+. This range really has us in trouble when he calls. 18.7% chance of a call. Our odds against this range if called are only 38%.

.813 * (.229) + 0.071 * (.304) + 0.116 * 0 = .207761

Now lets loosen him up a bit and say he will call with any pair, any ace, any broadway, and suited kings. Thats 27.7% of hands, and we are 43.5% to win if he calls.

.723 * (.229) + 0.120495 * (.304) + 0.156505 * 0 = .202197

With the bigstack to your left, you are going to have to steal from him eventually, you can't wait and try to steal from the other stacks. If this were a case where you were deciding on calling the bigstack from your right with a close ICM situation, I could see folding, so you can steal from the shortstacks later. Here, you can't. You can't sit and wait for the shortstacks and you can't avoid the bigstack if you want to gain any chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, what I would do in this situation. I would limp with the A4 and try and see a flop. Why? Because I am probably a better postflop player than the opponent. If he pushes, then there is nothing I can do and I just lost 150. It does give me information that he will push when I limp which I could use later.

If he doesn't raise, now there are two ways I can win his blind, by making a hand or stealing the pot. After the flop, you will be much more likely to be able to steal the pot and it will cost you a lot less to do so.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, what I would do in this situation. I would limp with the A4 and try and see a flop. Why? Because I am probably a better postflop player than the opponent. If he pushes, then there is nothing I can do and I just lost 150. It does give me information that he will push when I limp which I could use later.

If he doesn't raise, now there are two ways I can win his blind, by making a hand or stealing the pot. After the flop, you will be much more likely to be able to steal the pot and it will cost you a lot less to do so.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really see how it will cost you less to steal the pot once you get to a flop here. With 600 in the pot and 1410 chips left, what kind of bet are you going to make to steal here? Any pot sized bet and you are committed to the pot. Anything less and you are asking for a raise even more than you were by completing the SB. I'm also not so sure that it will be easier to steal with a flop out. Your opponent is going to pair the flop around 1/3rd of the time, and will often call/raise when he does. Even the loose opponent I dreamed up in the previous reply only called with 25% of hands.

Even if the big stack only pushes back pre-flop about 1/3 of the time, its going to be almost impossible to make enough chips back the other 2/3 of the time to make it a more EV move to limp here.

Maybe with deeper stacks I could justify limping into hands to take advantage of superior postflop play, but the blinds are just too high to really gain a significant advantage postflop now. You have 5xBB, it is a pre-flop game now.

[stillnotking]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're risking much closer to 5BB - hero has 1560 after posting. Risking 5BB to win 1.5BB heads up with an ace is a deal ill take any day of the week.

Gramps is rarely wrong and this is most certainly not one of those times.

[/ QUOTE ]

No wonder I stay out of this forum. Please keep playing aggressively against the big stacks at the table, especially with hands like A4o. That is a surefire way to go bust.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about some kind of logical argument? I love to see people argue against what I see as an easy decision (thats when you learn the most, right?), but I hate it when the only arguement is just something like "don't tangle with the bigstack!" or "don't get all your chips in with that kind of hand!". Its kinda like a baseball manager refusing to bring in a lefty to face a righty when the lefty is the best pitcher in the pen against the hitter, because it goes "against the book".

So, lets get logical and mathematical about this. Do you agree with the ICM in general? Lets pick a range of hands the big stack with call with or two, and see how your ICMEV works out here.

First, the basic numbers:
If you fold, your ICMEV is .198
If you push and double up: .304
If you steal: .229
If you push and bust: 0

First, lets assume he'll only call with 55+, A5+, KJ+. This range really has us in trouble when he calls. 18.7% chance of a call. Our odds against this range if called are only 38%.

.813 * (.229) + 0.071 * (.304) + 0.116 * 0 = .207761

Now lets loosen him up a bit and say he will call with any pair, any ace, any broadway, and suited kings. Thats 27.7% of hands, and we are 43.5% to win if he calls.

.723 * (.229) + 0.120495 * (.304) + 0.156505 * 0 = .202197

With the bigstack to your left, you are going to have to steal from him eventually, you can't wait and try to steal from the other stacks. If this were a case where you were deciding on calling the bigstack from your right with a close ICM situation, I could see folding, so you can steal from the shortstacks later. Here, you can't. You can't sit and wait for the shortstacks and you can't avoid the bigstack if you want to gain any chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for running the math on that. Your premises look sound to me.

So for your first range of hands, ICM equity gain by pushing vs. folding is 0.009761. With the second range it's 0.004197. Not a whole lot of difference. I'd say this is about as close as you can come in tournament poker to a decision that doesn't really matter equity-wise.

I'd still fold the hand, for two reasons. #1, I consider myself a better player than most, and so I don't like to risk all my chips on a small edge. #2, a major reason I play SNGs is to keep variance down, and pushing here is a big +variance play.

[eastbay]

Nick,

This isn't a slam but genuine question, as what you're saying goes against what many PP SnG specialists/winners have advocated. I'm wondering if there aren't more/different angles to playing these things that can also be successful, such as your limp play here.

What PP SnG buy-in do you play, and what kind of results do you get?

FWIW, I personally don't think this is an easy push here. I think it's borderline at best.

eastbay

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for running the math on that. Your premises look sound to me.

So for your first range of hands, ICM equity gain by pushing vs. folding is 0.009761. With the second range it's 0.004197. Not a whole lot of difference. I'd say this is about as close as you can come in tournament poker to a decision that doesn't really matter equity-wise.

I'd still fold the hand, for two reasons. #1, I consider myself a better player than most, and so I don't like to risk all my chips on a small edge. #2, a major reason I play SNGs is to keep variance down, and pushing here is a big +variance play.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that this is a pretty slim advantage, but I would still take it every time because of my position relative to the bigstack..

Having the bigstack directly to your left is going to adversly affect the EV of almost every move you make for the rest of the tournament. You could easily go 2-3 orbits without another +EV chance at all and end up having to settle for a much worse situation.

[El Maximo]

Thanks for running the calcs Benholio. I think the calcs show and others agree that this is +EV Push. Hero has 5-6BB until the blinds double. At 5-6BB Im pushing my small edges. Its when I have 9-10BB that I am less willing to push a small edge. If I fall below 5BB I have less fold equity and have to rely on getting a premium hand to stay alive. Is my thinking screwed on this. There is alot of hands I would push here even though they are very borderline pushes.

[ChrisV]

I reiterate - the big stack is going to have to be a pretty poor, passive player not to push with any two against a limp. When he does, you don't just lose 150 - you lose the equity you would have got from pushing.