When to call with a draw HU

[bcubed72]

Hi! I'll post the history then go into my rationale for betting the way I did.
Hero: $2598
Villan: $3402
Villian posts $150 (SB)
Hero posts $300 (BB)
Hero dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Villian raises to $600
Hero calls
Flop: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero bets $444
Villian calls all-in $2802
Hero calls all-in $1554
Turn: J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
River: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Villian shows AA
Hero wins $5196
Ok, now to the thinking behind the bet. Villian's min raise, in HU play, means he could have many different hands. With a reasonable chance I'm ahead, I call (I don't reraise just in case he DOES have a monster). When 3 babies come on the flop, I figure he probably didn't raise w/ small cards (unless he has a set, in which case I'm SOL), so I bet, hoping I'm still ahead.
His reraise really dissapoints me. I'm now quite sure I'm behind. Before I fold though, I think: if I fold now, I have about $1500 against his $4500. I need to compare my chances of drawing out against the chances of winning if I fold. I've got a gutshot to the idiot end; if he doesn't have the 8, I'm golden. Also I have the A, which I don't yet know is no good. (Ignore the backdoor nut flush draw). Figure 2 of my 3 outs to the A are good and 3 of 4 outs to the gutshot. That gives me 5 outs w/ 2 cards to come; about 22% probability.
If I win, I get villian w/ around $800: I'm willing to bet my chances of winning are at least 90% (obviously, if I lose, it's 0%). So the question, as I see it, is NOT am I geting pot odds; it's do my odds of hitting and winning the tourney exceed my odds of folding and winning: hence, are my odds of winning after a fold greater or less than about 20%?
My HU play is not my strong point, and my opponent is at least as skilled as I (although he doesn't seem to bluff enough). I figure my odds of hitting and winning are at least as high as my odds of folding and winning, so I call all-in.
Do you agree or disagree w/ my reasoning? Obviously I didn't know he had AA (although I suspected SOME pocket pair when he went all-in with 3 babies on the flop). Would it still be a good call if I somehow knew I had to hit my gutshot (4 outs as opposed to 5)?

[tigerite]

What the hell are you doing here. Re-raise all-in preflop. This is nonsense.

And "Hero bets $444" - yes, he's going to believe you have a set of 4's. Please, this is so retarded. Why do it?

Your call was terrible. You played the whole hand badly. Never mind though eh?

[the shadow]

I agree. Short stack is less than 9 BBs. This is a reasonable range for a push-fold strategy. Ax is a pushable hand. I push PF and pray for a suckout when I see what I'm up against.

The Shadow

FOLD and take your chances by pushing preflop when you have FE. With 1500 chips left you are still in pretty good contention to get back in it. fold here and then play aggressive preflop until you double up or get busted.

[SonnyJay]

In words not as strong as tigerite's, this hand was played quite badly.

First off, the idea to just call preflop because he could have a monster is not good. Against the vast majority of opponents making this play, their range is much larger than monsters and hands beating you. Especially if he's been minraising a lot, just get this all in preflop. You don't have time to dick around postflop with stacks this shallow. (By the way, what site are you playing? There's only 6000 chips HU...). If you truly thought
[ QUOTE ]
so I bet, hoping I'm still ahead

[/ QUOTE ]
meaning that you were ahead preflop, get your chips in preflop. Heads up with less than 10 BB is not time to be taking flops and feeling your way through the hand.

Given that this is the case, under no circumstances should you be calling this all in. Since you didn't push preflop you have no clue where you stand. I know you're attempting to figure out that just because you're uncertain about your postflop play whether or not you should take incorrect odds to play, and you shouldn't.

Once you bet the flop and you're raised, you know you aren't ahead. You would be better off folding and pushing 52o next hand in the small blind. I never want to be calling off my stack postflop with a hand like this HU. Go down as the aggressor (even with bad hands) instead of calling off your stack with incorrect odds.

Moral of the story: it should've been all in preflop if you're gonna play. Don't take incorrect odds when calling all in unless you know you're totally outclassed, but at low buy in SNGs as long as you know to be aggressive and push frequently once the blinds are big you won't find yourself outclassed much. Basically, don't do it.

-SonnyJay

[bcubed72]

Thanks for the info. Just to comment on what's been said:
1. I didn't go all in preflop because I figured he'd only call w/ JJ or higher pair, or mabye AK...just the hands I DONT want to see.
2. The range of hands I had my opponent on were: A-anything, K8 or better, QJs, any pair. With $900 in the pot, I was getting 3:1 on my call, so I figured go for it, I'm ahead at least that much of the time.
3. As I explained in my post, I felt I needed to have at least 20% odds of winning if I fold to make it worthwhile. I would have been outchipped 3:1; that means it would take 2 all ins, winning both, to win. (I know this isn't how it would play out, but it's a good first order approximation.) Assuming even money on each all-in, I've got 25% odds. This means that folding should be slightly preferred to calling, but it really is a close call. Factor in the fact that I feel I was slightly outclassed, and it's almost a wash. Obviously if I thought I had a skill advantage, I'd definately fold.
4. My bet of $444 was not some signal I had trips. I wanted to lead with a bet of $400-500. $444 is almost equal to $450, and slightly less effort to type. I do this frequently and doubt if it affected my opponent one way or the other.

[rbear]

[ QUOTE ]

1. I didn't go all in preflop because I figured he'd only call w/ JJ or higher pair, or mabye AK...just the hands I DONT want to see.
2. The range of hands I had my opponent on were: A-anything, K8 or better, QJs, any pair. With $900 in the pot, I was getting 3:1 on my call, so I figured go for it, I'm ahead at least that much of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]
JJ or better or AK are the only hadnds that call here? You gotta be kidding me. I see many people (at the levels I'm suspecting you play at) go in with any king, any pp, any ace, and a lot of times paint suited. Easy push preflop, imo

[SonnyJay]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't go all in preflop because I figured he'd only call w/ JJ or higher pair, or mabye AK

[/ QUOTE ]
This isn't true, and if it were, it would be great...you'd take the pot down preflop like 90% of the time! Picking up 900 chips in the pot right now without confrontation would be ideal.

[ QUOTE ]
I would have been outchipped 3:1; that means it would take 2 all ins, winning both, to win. (I know this isn't how it would play out, but it's a good first order approximation.)

[/ QUOTE ]
Personally I don't feel this is a good approximation. You should be looking to push and win blinds without confrontation, so ideally you're picking up his blind frequently enough that you aren't having to face an all in confrontation to build a stack. The concept of fold equity and winning pots without confrontation is very important when the blinds start to become this big. Like I said, I'd rather be pushing garbage than calling an all in with a really weak hand. When you're pushing hands preflop they'll fold a good percentage of the time, and if you get called you have to outdraw them when behind. Here you simply have to outdraw them with no chance of him folding.

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming even money on each all-in, I've got 25% odds. This means that folding should be slightly preferred to calling, but it really is a close call.

[/ QUOTE ]
This thinking is really flawed. You pushing all in does not guarantee a call, as hopefully you'll be picking up blinds. If you're aggressively trying to steal blinds then having a stack to do so is much better than taking a -EV stab at a pot.

-SonnyJay

[valenzuela]

this is an easy all-in, push any pocketpair or hand that adds up to 13 HU on a SNG.

[OatmealJoe]

[ QUOTE ]

I've got a gutshot to the idiot end; if he doesn't have the 8, I'm golden. Also I have the A, which I don't yet know is no good. (Ignore the backdoor nut flush draw). Figure 2 of my 3 outs to the A are good and 3 of 4 outs to the gutshot. That gives me 5 outs w/ 2 cards to come; about 22% probability.


[/ QUOTE ]

What about a 2? Both a 6 and a 2 will give you a straight. That adds an extra 4 outs to push you up to almost 40%.