#1
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LAG or genius?
Villain has joined the table very very recently.
Hand 1: Villain posts UTG, calls a late position raise, and open-folds on an A36 flop. Hand 2: Villain calls an EMP raise from BB, check-folds the KT7 flop Hand 3: Villain calls a MP raise (different player) from SB, check-folds the 998 flop. Hand 4: Villain limps on the button, bets a T58 flop, checks an ace turn, checks a king on the river. Villain loses to calling station's K2s. He did not show his hand. --------------- Hand 5: Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls. Flop: (7.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises...</font> My plan is to give up immediately if 3-bet, and lead the turn with the intent of not putting in any more money if only called. |
#2
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Re: LAG or genius?
I'm thinking LAG. Even if he just AK or something, he's not folding a loner spade until the river. I think you have zilch folding equity, and even if you're ahead, you have to dodge a helluva lotta scare cards.
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#3
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Re: LAG or genius?
Is your subject referring to you or Villan?
You haven't seen him 3-bet PF, so far, so he likes this hand more than any of the other 4. But, I like the flop play, and the plan seems sound. |
#4
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Re: LAG or genius?
On this board, it comes down to whether or not we can fold 99,tt, and jj imo. The thing is, I think your line is good versus one of these without a spade, but if someone has a spade they aren't going anywhere.
I think we might consider betting a spade on the river if we are called on the turn. |
#5
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Re: LAG or genius?
[ QUOTE ]
Is your subject referring to you or Villan? You haven't seen him 3-bet PF, so far, so he likes this hand more than any of the other 4. But, I like the flop play, and the plan seems sound. [/ QUOTE ] Based on villain's play, he's no LAG. Based on my play... I'll leave my thoughts out for a while. |
#6
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Re: LAG or genius?
by the way, awesome work with the reads. If everyone did that, it would generate a lot of great discussion.
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#7
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Re: LAG or genius?
Alright, let's give villian some hands.
TT-AA, AKo, AKs sounds good I think. TT might be a stretch, but hey. TT - 6 (3 good, 3 bad) JJ - 6 (3 good, 3 bad) QQ - 2 (both bad) KK - 6 (3 kinda good, 3 bad) AA - 6 (3 kinda good, 3 bad) AKo - 12 (6 good, 6 bad) AKs - 4 (3 good, 1 bad) The bad hands represent those that DON'T have a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in them. Let's see what we know: a) He isn't happy to get check-raised if he's holding TT or JJ without a spade. b) Even if he does have a spade, I think there's is good folding equity assuming that you bet out the turn and the river if no spade falls. c) He definitely isn't going anywhere with QQ, and A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or a K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] d) He's certainly 3-betting A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and probably QQ too. e) You're getting 4.25:1 on your semi-bluff f) This player likes to see the flop, but doesn't show any interest in continuing on with an unimproved hand. Ok, now for some math: I've given him 42 possible holdings. Of those, you appear to be ahead of 15 of them. 9 of them have 6 outs twice, with 2 of those being VERY scary for villian, and 6 of them have 14 outs twice (actually making it a favorite against 44 despite a possible redraw). On all the other hands you have 2 outs, and varying amounts of fold equity. Let's say he always folds all 9 of the AK combinations that only have 6 outs against you. Now he's folding 9/42 = 21.428% of the time. 4.25:1 is laying you 19.048%. Given that I think he'll fold some TT and JJ combinations that don't have spades, it looks like a solid play. Of course, this is all dependant on whether or not the 3-betting standards I gave him are too loose. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if he'd only 3-bet JJ-AA and AKs. Without running any more calculations, I would be surprised to see a check-raise be +EV in that situation. |
#8
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Re: LAG or genius?
I am no wizard at 1/2, but my guess is that this is a pretty risky plan. I think that given how passive he has be on the other flops, betting out on the scary flop is a sign of strenght. I think you might put him into call-down mode, but if you don't improve you won't pull in the pot
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#9
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I think I\'m smart because the results favor me.
I think this is a marginal play, but a nice aggressive marginal play. A lot of this has to do with my read on villain.
[ QUOTE ] Hand 1: Villain posts UTG, calls a late position raise, and open-folds on an A36 flop. Hand 2: Villain calls an EMP raise from BB, check-folds the KT7 flop Hand 3: Villain calls a MP raise (different player) from SB, check-folds the 998 flop. Hand 4: Villain limps on the button, bets a T58 flop, checks an ace turn, checks a king on the river. Villain loses to calling station's K2s. He did not show his hand. [/ QUOTE ] The first hand is fantastically donktastic. Open-folders get immediate disrespect from me. Hands 2 and 3 make him look weak-tight. Hand 4 makes him seem timid. Put all of these together, and I think I have a player likes to see flops but is afraid to show down weak hands. I was planning to check-fold flops containing an ace or king because I don't like loose preflop/weak-tight postflop players 3-betting me. But this one came down scary enough that I decided to get creative. [ QUOTE ] Hand 5: Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls. Flop: (7.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises...</font> My plan is to give up immediately if 3-bet, and lead the turn with the intent of not putting in any more money if only called. [/ QUOTE ] Against a player who has shown such weak tendencies, I'm willing to bet that he's folding non-spade hands and the odds of him holding a spade are slightly in my favor (with 3 spades already on the board, it becomes less likely that he's holding one of them). He'll probably still call down with AA-KK, but he's not going to like it. mmbt0ne gave a nice analysis, and his numbers are based on getting villain to fold *NOW*. The numbers he put forth ignore villain's JJ and TT folds (the ones with no spades). Running the numbers again gives 15/42=35.7% for villain to fold. Even in the slightly worse case (taking away villain's TT, AKo), villain holds 24 different hands. He folds 6 hands (AKs non-spade plus JJ without spades). This still puts me at 25% to take it down right now. I actually think villain has a wider range of hands, going down to 88 and including AQ, AJs, KQ, KJs. Since 3 out of the last 4 hands were raised preflop, I'm guessing that he suspects the table is a little LAGgy. That's just a guess, so I'm not putting a ton of weight in it. This tilts things slightly more in my favor. Anyway, villain folded to the check-raise and left the table 3 hands later. |
#10
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Re: LAG or genius?
solid plan aaron.
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