Disrespect of the week- Penn State + 3.5 vs Michigan?

[lastchance]

Michigan's definitely a much better team than their record indicates. They've had to face a pretty brutal schedule, and they haven't been blown out of any of them.

Still, Penn State hasn't lost a game yet, and considering they're coming off back to back wins against Ohio State and Minnesota, both very good teams, I think Penn State and the points is a pretty clear play here.

[mmbt0ne]

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Call me crazy, but I might play Michigan anyway, especially if I can find them -2.5.

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One of my favorite college fb plays is the unranked team favored over a ranked opponent. The public is always heavy on the ranked team.

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Unranked home favorite was a killer bet last year in college basketball. The favorite covered a LOT. I don't know the numbers off the top of my head, but you could probably search the archives for it. It was easily &gt;70%.

[kdog]

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They played the perfect game against OSU.


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I'd say the oddsmakers don't think they can do this again, on the road in a tough place to play, against a good team coming off a tough home loss. Personally I agree with them. IF I bet this game the pick will be Michigan.

[noggindoc]

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I'm also on Michigan here. Michigan does the same thing every year--gets beaten in a couple of games they shouldn't on the road, and absolutely smokes someone better than them, usually at home. Michigan could just as easily win this game by three touchdowns as lose it, IMO.

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Yeah but Michigan hasn't dropped out of the top 25, as they have this year, for many many years. They have already lost as many games as they usually lose in a whole season, so I think things might be a little different this year.

[Finite_Risk]

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I dont see this young team playing at a optimal level 3 weeks in a row against a tough, hunger, pissed off team at HOME in front of 100,000 people. If PSU wins then USC on JAN 1 here they come.

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Could not agree more - toughest game left.

(another PSU alum)

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the system is play on any team who is ranked in top 25; if they are a doggie to an unranked team...

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I searched the archives and found this...it seems to contradict what you're saying. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

It seems to me like it could go either way:

The public could fall in love with an unranked team, or they might go with the "obvious" choice of the ranked team.

[legend42]

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Could not agree more - toughest game left.

(another PSU alum)

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It might be the toughest game left, but there are some other matchups that could be bigtime stumbling blocks- this team isn't that good that they can afford to overlook ANY game. And even if they do run the table, they probably don't get to play for the national title over an undefeated ACC team or Texas. Though we can hope.

(another PSU alum- freshman year '86)

[hogua]

Before you book a room, you should know that the Rose Bowl Game will be on Jan 4th (and the parade in on Jan 2).

[ThaHero]

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the system is play on any team who is ranked in top 25; if they are a doggie to an unranked team...

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I searched the archives and found this...it seems to contradict what you're saying. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

It seems to me like it could go either way:

The public could fall in love with an unranked team, or they might go with the "obvious" choice of the ranked team.

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On Sportsbook, it looks like Michigan is an early public favorite, although that could just be early sharp money. But that wouldn't make much sense because if the sharps think the public will side with Mich then they'd wait for the line to move lower...Unless they don't think the line will move, which is possible.