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#1
09-17-2005, 07:35 PM
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hypothetical
you have just graduated college and have 25K to your name. You are a degenerate gambler and you know this. You have a shot to put all your money on the line (poker hand, sports bet, etc.) but you are gauranteed 92% to double your money. The other 8% of the time you lose it all. You hold a low paying job and the money is not easily replaceable. Bet or fold?
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#3
09-17-2005, 10:02 PM
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Re: hypothetical
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] but you are gauranteed 92% to double your money. [/ QUOTE ] Give an example of where you are "guaranteed" a 92% probability of doubling your money? [/ QUOTE ] A person draws a card from a standard deck. Any card but A, he wins (doubles up). Any A, he loses (busts).
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#4
09-17-2005, 10:04 PM
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Re: hypothetical
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] but you are gauranteed 92% to double your money. [/ QUOTE ] Give an example of where you are "guaranteed" a 92% probability of doubling your money? [/ QUOTE ] A person draws a card from a standard deck. Any card but A, he wins (doubles up). Any A, he loses (busts). [/ QUOTE ] And I bet. Especially if I'm a degenerate gambler.
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#5
09-17-2005, 10:58 PM
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Re: hypothetical
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] but you are gauranteed 92% to double your money. [/ QUOTE ] Give an example of where you are "guaranteed" a 92% probability of doubling your money? [/ QUOTE ] A person draws a card from a standard deck. Any card but A, he wins (doubles up). Any A, he loses (busts). [/ QUOTE ] And I bet. Especially if I'm a degenerate gambler. [/ QUOTE ] Damn, I'd put my house on that bet.
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#7
09-18-2005, 12:27 AM
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Re: hypothetical
[ QUOTE ]
Why would anyone not holding a deck of Aces, give that bet? [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] degenerate gambler [/ QUOTE ]
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#8
09-18-2005, 01:49 AM
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Re: hypothetical
[ QUOTE ]
you have just graduated college and have 25K to your name. You are a degenerate gambler and you know this. You have a shot to put all your money on the line (poker hand, sports bet, etc.) but you are gauranteed 92% to double your money. The other 8% of the time you lose it all. You hold a low paying job and the money is not easily replaceable. Bet or fold? [/ QUOTE ] The problem is assessing how likey the 92% is to be accurate. In real life most decisions cannot be quantified nearly that closely. A 92% sporting bet, for example, would be considered a "lock". But in fact sport bettors KNOW that there is no such thing as a true lock, other factors can always come into play.
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#9
09-18-2005, 03:29 PM
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Re: hypothetical
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] you have just graduated college and have 25K to your name. You are a degenerate gambler and you know this. You have a shot to put all your money on the line (poker hand, sports bet, etc.) but you are gauranteed 92% to double your money. The other 8% of the time you lose it all. You hold a low paying job and the money is not easily replaceable. Bet or fold? [/ QUOTE ] The problem is assessing how likey the 92% is to be accurate. [/ QUOTE ] no. read the title of the thread. there is no problem there.
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