River Decision

[Eaglesfan1]

2/4 NL, Villain has 250$ and I have him covered. 3 limpers to me and I check in the BB with J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Flop comes down 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

All 5 of us check.

Turn 7 ... Board 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB (250$) leads out 20$, I make it 70$. SB calls. Pot 160.

River J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]... Final Board 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villain goes all in for 180$ into the 160$ pot. Risk 180$ for an 80$ chop?

[Vavavoom]

I'd be worried after all that limping....thats a big overbet for at most a chop....there are lots of hands that beat u...

2 Hearts or QT, doesn't seem that outrageous...



No reads on villain ??

[Spladle Master]

I'd have bet the flop and pushed the turn, thereby nullifying all river decisions. Since you didn't, you have an extremely read-dependent situation.

[Eaglesfan1]

I prefer not to bet the flop since I'm up against 4 opponents with an extremely coordinated board. I also want to keep anybody with a stray 10 in because if a 7 hits I take there stack.

[lapoker17]

go birds

[Spladle Master]

[ QUOTE ]
I prefer not to bet the flop since I'm up against 4 opponents with an extremely coordinated board. I also want to keep anybody with a stray 10 in because if a 7 hits I take there stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough. My point is that we cannot give you good advice on this river since we have not been watching this opponent play as long as you have.

[creedofhubris]

Your turn bet is ridiculously small.

As you played it, it's an easy fold on the river, but you should have gotten the money in earlier.

[Lucky]

[ QUOTE ]
I prefer not to bet the flop since I'm up against 4 opponents with an extremely coordinated board. I also want to keep anybody with a stray 10 in because if a 7 hits I take there stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough.

But then you have to take his turn bet to mean the T (you hope) and get it all in. It's a bit much and he might make you for bigger straight, but he prob calls with his short stack.

[Kirkrrr]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain goes all in for 180$ into the 160$ pot. Risk 180$ for an 80$ chop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh.. No. Disgusting river, move on.

Kirk

I dont think a chop is very likely.

SB's turn bet and call indicates probable made low straight + flush draw. exam. A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB did not lead out on the flop, maybe due to an aggressive table, maybe due to a passive style. You would know.

I really do not like the medium sized re-raise on the turn. It would be better to just call or re-raise BIG. You better not have many chips left in your stack to tempt him to draw!

That $70 reraise makes it way too easy to put you on the made straight. What else does SB think you have? And then he went ahead and called anyway!

What did you think he called with? Why would a player check that flop, and then when it gets even more dangerous - bet into the field? You see - it makes you think.

When you re-raised the turn you might as well have turned up your hole cards! Now if SB has the flush draw - the implied odds are good enough for him to make the call. If he hits it - you will PAY. He knows you already made your hand, and the one he will make can beat it. And that is why he makes the call.

And THAT is also why he overbet on the river. To max the reward - knowing full well you had that straight and would pay off in full.

If you would have disguised your hand by just calling the turn, the same bet on the river as a bluff would be unlikely.

So if you call the turn rather than re-raising:

1) SB would not be able to know that you where not also helped by the J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - this is important in that you can then determine that a river bet is not likely a bluff. In other words - you could have made the flush as well. It would even be possible to have T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] If the SB had only a straight he would then simply check, and if he had nothing - the board is WAY too scary to try a bluff 2) If he did decide to bet a legit hand (A or K high [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]flush) - this river bet would be much smaller since he could not count on you having a hand that would call. At worst you would face a value bet - maybe around 1/2 the pot.

In effect - what you would create is a situation at the river that will make your hand appear both VERY dangerous, and VERY weak at the same time.

Even though the pot is smaller for your nut straight - this is MUCH better than = (OOOPS.you have the nut straight vs. SB has the flush.and.he knows you will call any bet!)

So either go all-in at the turn, or call and disguise your hand. There is no in-between!

So what is best?

If I am not playing a tourny and have lots of chips to play with - I like the second option best. It carries more risk, but it will pay off better in the long run.

One major problem with the all-in is that it will chase away your MOST profitable situation: Nut straight vs. Non-Nut straight

Another reason the call is better is that in the majority of cases SB will not hit his [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] at the river. Now what will he do? Very often the busted draw will bet to save the hand, (because you called the turn rather than reraising), and you will usually pick up more here calling these bluffs than you gain by going all-in and stealing the pot equity of the draw on the turn. You can also pick up many value bets on the river - the pots will be smaller, but there will be alot more of them to win.

So it was really a TURN decision!