Dems take major gubernatorial races

[Cyrus]

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New York: Nothing to note there.

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Actually, there is.

New Yorkers are going something like 5:1 as registered Dems and GOPsters respectively, yet a Republican Mayor (admittedly a "moderate" Republican) gets re-elected with a clear margin.

The Democrats have been taking New York for granted for many years now, to their peril.

[samjjones]

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New York: Nothing to note there.

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Actually, there is.

New Yorkers are going something like 5:1 as registered Dems and GOPsters respectively, yet a Republican Mayor (admittedly a "moderate" Republican) gets re-elected with a clear margin.

The Democrats have been taking New York for granted for many years now, to their peril.

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Bloomberg is a liberal Democrat in Republican's clothing.

[DVaut1]

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New Jersey: Democratic candidate wins in a solidly blue state
Virginia: Democratic candidate wins race on heels of a popular Democratic governor and a third candidate leaking votes from the Republican candidate
New York: Nothing to note there.

Wow thats just horrible for Republicans. But I understand when you have been getting drubbed like the Dems in recent elections, you take your comfort where you can. And Im ok with that. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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I'll agree that in a way you're right - in a vacuum, the Democratic wins aren't necessarily indicative of well...anything. However, two things:

1) President Bush makes an emergency stop in Virginia to stump for Kilgore - and Kilgore still looses. Under most circumstances, this is somewhat of a political gamble that could cost President Bush political capital, but as Charlie Cook noted in his Cook Report yesterday - what capital? To that end, Bush was owning the results from yesterday whether he showed up to stump or not (so it wasn't much of a gamble, in my mind). On my drive to work yesterday morning, I overheard Republican strategist Ed Rogers give a quote on NPR (which I may not capture perfectly but what I thought was relatively spot-on, even if I don't get it verbatim) - but it was something along the lines of "Even if Kilgore wins in Virginia, no one will claim it solves Bush's problems - but it would be the absence of bad, and when you're in trouble the absence of bad is the first step toward recovery."

2) Ergo, the big 'story' to emerge from yesterday's races is this: yesterday could have been (had Kilgore and Forrester and others pulled out victories) a lifejacket for Bush - his way of climbing out of the cellar. Yesterday's GOP losses just furthers the inter-party angst and pessimism. Yesterday could have stopped some of the snowballing GOP problems - and while not necessarily 'adding' to the problems, the election day losses were more or less a missed opportunity for recovery.

[Beer and Pizza]

Everything is perceived as a potential "lifejacket" for Bush. The Alito nomination is too. That is largely nonsense. When he starts withdrawing troops, his polls numbers will soar. Americans are not so shallow as to need signs and signals, real improvement will come when Bush is again recognized for doing good work. And he will be soon enough - all Presidents have ups and downs.

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Everything is perceived as a potential "lifejacket" for Bush. The Alito nomination is too. That is largely nonsense. When he starts withdrawing troops, <u>his polls numbers will soar.</u> Americans are not so shallow as to need signs and signals, real improvement will come when Bush is again recognized for doing good work. And he will be soon enough - all Presidents have ups and downs.

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I'm definitely interested in getting some action on this prediction. Please define "soar", "withdrawal" of troops, and the time interval you believe it will take the poll numbers to "soar" following such "withdrawal". Thanks.

[slamdunkpro]

I don’t know if the Virginia Governor’s race really meant anything. I had a tough time voting for any of then in that I thought Kaine, Kilgore, and Potts were all worthless wastes of DNA spewing a bunch of crap, and a lot of my friends and family felt the same way.

Some observations:

Kaine – Liberal trial lawyer borrows the Clinton/Warner playbook and runs a “moderate democrat” republican style campaign and wins.

Kilgore – Ran a very democrat message style negative campaign – “Vote for me because the other guy sucks and I have a vision” and lost.

Potts – Stealth democrat; possibly Kaine’s edge because when pressed with the “do you really have a chance” question and “if not you who” he praised Kaine and really attacked Kilgore at every opportunity.

Kaine may have a difficult year since both the Lieutenant Governorship and the Attorney General slot went to republicans and, even though the republicans lost 2 Senate Seats (expected) they still control the legislature. He also made a lot of statements like – “I am morally opposed to the Death Penalty and there should be a moratorium on it – but I’ll sign Death Warrants if elected.” And “We need to raise the gas tax to pay for transportation, but I won’t raise taxes” that he might have a hard time living up to. He just might fall into the Gilmore trap.

The big winner in Virginia may be Mark Warner as he needed a democrat win as outgoing Governor for the national democratic party to take him seriously as an ’08 Presidential contender. If Kaine is a disaster there is enough time for Warner to distance himself, blame the republicans and not get splattered.

[Borodog]

Voting is for suckers.

[Beer and Pizza]

We had a status quo election:

CA - Reform initiatives of GOP rejected (maintain status quo)

OH - Reform initiatives of Democrats rejected (maintain status quo)

VA - incumbant party holds the governorship

NJ - incumbant party holds the governorship


The only statewide election that seems to buck the trend is the PA Supreme Court retention election - where a justice was defeated (for the first time in memory) [background: the court upheld a politician pay raise that was clearly prohibited by the state constitution - a judge goes down for judicial activism [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] )

[Felix_Nietsche]

We had a status quo election:
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Very True.
VA was a slight disappointment but the Repub candidate in VA was not a strong candidate. As for NJ, no surprise that a Dem won. I wanted Arnold to get the prop passed that would have castrated the California assembly ability to spend their state into bankruptcy. I guess CA has not hit rock bottom yet. Arnold gave his best shot to force fiscal responsibility on CA but the liberals won. The best Arnold can do for the rest of his term is play defense to stem the tide of fiscal insanity in CA. He just does not have enough votes in the assembly.

In the last several years, the Dems have been getting smacked around in elections and they are desperate for any electoral success. This election changed nothing. But it won’t stop the Dems acting like it was a resounding victory. Let the Dems enjoy their fantasies in the land of make believe.

[nyc999]

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Arnold gave his best shot to force fiscal responsibility on CA but the liberals won.

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Arnold just dropped $300 million on that special election. Not very fiscally responsible.