Interesting 20-40 hand to disect (big pot)

As the #3 seat, here's my thoughts (first post even though I do a lot of lurking)...

Player assesment...
#3: Hey, that's me!
#4: Solid player, but not a superstar.
#5: Dead money.
#8 (Hero): At the time, I didn't know it was Mike (different scrname than I'm used to seeing). From what I've seen, Mike is a solid player that borders into that realm of being a really really good player.

3rd: Hero's call isn't bad. Given his position, I think it's reasonable to assume that 4 people will call to 4th street, which obviously means that the pot at that point is paying 3:1. If he KNOWS that #4 has A's, he's getting even money. If #4 is raising with a three flush, Hero's odds are about 2.7:1. If #4 is raising with a pair smaller than J's with the A door card, Hero's odds are about 2.3:1. Also, I think you can add a little +EV because Mike plays well.

4th: I'm 95% sure that Hero has trip J's. I'm pretty certain it's not J's and 8's because I don't think Hero would've called on 3rd with split 8's with a J-kicker. I know trip 8's are impossible and believe pocket A's are extremely unlikely. The reason why I wasn't 100% convinced is because Hero did not cap the betting. Personally, at that particular time, I would've capped 4th, but when Mike explains why he didn't, I have to agree that his was the better play. Call me chicken, but I don't raise because of my certainty of Hero's hand. Mike's odds are about 1.8:1 and my odds are about 2.2:1, so while we're both getting +EV, he still has the much superior hand. Additionally, #4 still has a wide range of hands that he could have. Though, at this point, I give him naked A's or A's up. Incidentally, based on possible hands I gave #5, #4's odds are a whopping bad 6.1:1. I discount #5 because he's a Grade-A monkey.

5th: I hit my absolute best card, 5c. I know I have the best hand, so I'm trying to get as much money as possible in the pot. I'm glad I didn't hit a heart (unless it was the 5h), because as you saw on 6th, it would've likely have killed the action. Also, it's difficult to put me on the straight.

6th: Given the betting history and everyone's boards, this street pretty much played itself. The Qh allows me to totally discount #5's hand. The only question mark here is #4's hand until he doesn't CR. Given he doesn't CR, he doesn't yet have the winning hand. Going into the river, each player's odds are probably about:
#3, 0.5:1
#4, 14.1:1
#5, 12.5:1
#8, 4.2:1
And the pot is 28.53 BB, so everyone has correct pot odds to call.

7th: I'm definitely worried about either Hero or #4 improving to a hand that can beat me. As others have stated, I'm pretty sure it will be in the form of a check raise. Based on the odds I listed on 6th street, I believe I'm going to make 2-3 additional BBs 67% of the time and lose 2 BBs 33%, so it's an easy bet.

Hope this adds to the thread.

As an aside, I don't play nearly as much stud as I used to as I'm working on stud8 and hold'em. I might even get crazy and start playing Omaha8 again!

--Carl

[mscags]

Very nice analysis and welcome to the forum [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Michael Emery]

Before I forget I just wanted to say that I believe we got some excellent responses to this thread. I want to thank everyone who took the time to post their thoughtful analysis (there were many). I read them all and got a lot out of this thread, as I'm sure others did as well.

Mike Emery

[dandy_don]

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(first post even though I do a lot of lurking)...

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Wow. Nice 1st post.

[jon_1van]

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you are always drunk.

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How else can you find the balls to limp-reraise 3-flushes in a super tight ante game?

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U should see me play STT's.. That's all I'll say.

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Being crazy aggressive is how you take 1st in alot of SNGs. And taking first is how you make the money.