AJo in the CO

[silkyslim]

The button is a very weak tight nut peddler. BB 80/50/1 over 50+ hands and has been donating. these players are complete opposite.

Party 2/4 (8 handed)
Hero is CO with AJo
folds to Hero who <font color="red"> raises </font>, <font color="red">Button 3 bets</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">BB caps</font>, Hero calls??, Button calls.

Flop for 12.5 SB's: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="red"> BB bets </font>, Hero calls, Button calls

Turn for 7.5 BB's: 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="red"> BB bets </font>, Hero ????

[W. Deranged]

I think that if we are proceeding to the turn we should raise the flop. The promotion opportunities here are unbelievable.

Basically, if we continue to play it's because we think that a high percentage of the time we're beating BB because he's a lagtard. Therefore, we really need to try to promote our hand if we're going to play, because the Button has us beat here a vast majority of the time it would seem. If he's really weak and a nut peddler, I advocate the following line:

Raise the flop. If button calls, you are done with the hand on the turn. If button gets out of the way, be prepared to take the hand to showdown.

Sound cool?

[shark6]

I think PF is ok given the overlay and action the BB will provide if you hit a good flop.

Fold the flop.

Weak tight nut peddlers only 3-bet the top 4 or 5 hands at most. You might have 3 A outs or you might be drawing to runner runner.

[Nick C]

Since BB is psychotic, I'd consider raising in an effort to get rid of Button. However, it's going to suck if Button's just sitting back waiting to pop the turn with his AA.

But BB probably just has something like K5o, right? And if he has pocket 2's instead, maybe we'll spike a 3 on the river.

[W. Deranged]

It should be very carefully noted that the pot already contains over $25.

Basically just forget about the BB. He has two cards. Who cares.

Can we get the nut peddlar to fold AK? If so, that alone is absolutely enough reason to raise this flop. If he won't fold AK, I agree that we are in in trouble.

Here's a challenge for you guys: How often does button have to fold AK, given that his three-betting range is JJ+ and AK, for it be correct to raise this flop? We can assume that BB's hand is something from approximately the top 30% of hands.

[silkyslim]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that if we are proceeding to the turn we should raise the flop. The promotion opportunities here are unbelievable.

Basically, if we continue to play it's because we think that a high percentage of the time we're beating BB because he's a lagtard. Therefore, we really need to try to promote our hand if we're going to play, because the Button has us beat here a vast majority of the time it would seem. If he's really weak and a nut peddler, I advocate the following line:

Raise the flop. If button calls, you are done with the hand on the turn. If button gets out of the way, be prepared to take the hand to showdown.

Sound cool?

[/ QUOTE ]
I guess the call on the flop was because:
-Button would raise an overpair and I could get out of the way
-If I raise the maniac might 3 bet because they are only small bets and it would get expensive to see a turn.
-it would be easier to get the button to fold a better hand with a turn raise and the big bet might shut the manac up so i can take a free showdown.

another thing, I felt bad about calling 2 bets back to me preflop. is this standard?

[paperboyNC]

I agree with raising the flop with try to isolate, but I also end spewing bigtime when I come in second best to the third player.

It's a tough hand and you don't have much equity on the turn.

[W. Deranged]

I think another way to play it is to call the flop and raise any non A or K flop if and only if the button doesn't raise the flop. And to fold the turn if button raises the flop.

That might be better, actually, but realize that it entails a MUCH higher financial risk in a situation where we do not rate to be in that good shape.

My main desire to raise the flop is that I think this particular opponent might be especially likely to fold AK on the flop here.

From just a very vague mental estimate, I think that I can say with a fair amount of confidence that if the button will fold AK here 50% of the time then raising is definitely correct. My sense is that button has to fold AK something like 40-45% of the time for the raise to be EV neutral.

[silkyslim]

[ QUOTE ]
I think another way to play it is to call the flop and raise any non A or K flop if and only if the button doesn't raise the flop. And to fold the turn if button raises the flop.

That might be better, actually, but realize that it entails a MUCH higher financial risk in a situation where we do not rate to be in that good shape.

My main desire to raise the flop is that I think this particular opponent might be especially likely to fold AK on the flop here.

From just a very vague mental estimate, I think that I can say with a fair amount of confidence that if the button will fold AK here 50% of the time then raising is definitely correct. My sense is that button has to fold AK something like 40-45% of the time for the raise to be EV neutral.

[/ QUOTE ]
ok so i pokerstoved it up, put BB on random, me on AJo, and assumed villain had AK. our equity is ~16% before he folds and jumps to 60% if he folds. thats kickass. so you were pretty close with your estimate. so the point was with these players and our position we really need to try and isolate even with this measly hand. our hole cards are somewhat secondary to the players and board texture.
P.S. if we wait for the turn our equity goes from 10% to 56% if that means anything/

[shark6]

Button also knows this pot is big and that it is worth pealing another card with AK. He'll at least call and probably reraise with JJ+ on this good flop for him.

Also, I'm not even sure he always 3-bets PF with AKo. So, I think the question we need to ask is:

What percent of the time does Button actually have AK and is actually willing to fold it on the flop?