AJ in UTG..push or fold?

[Mad Genius1]

Stars $50 tournament. 440 started, down to 62. We just hit the third hour and blinds are 300/600, ante50. I'm UTG with 4300 and the shortest stack at the table. The table has a lot of big stacks but is playing very tight. Push or fold with AJo here?

Oh by the way, Top 45 make money. I was ranked around 55th at the time, average stack was 11000.

[betgo]

Push. With 7xBB and the ante, you are getting the right odds, although it is fairly close. There is about a 30% chance you will be called by a hand that dominates you, in which case you lose about 3 BBs on average. The blinds and antes are about 2 BBs.

The bubble shouldn't effect things too much. If you are trying to fold into the money, you probably need more chips. Any of the hands you are worried about (AQ or JJ or better) are going to call you no matter what.

[bobby rooney]

I think a push is the way to go. There's enough blinds and antes in there that you are happy if everyone folds and you aren't that bad off unless someone wakes up with premium tickets like AK. People will fold a lot of hands when you get close to the money, so allin is the move here. I'd even do it with KJ.

[Iconoclastic]

Push

[the alex]

Push? Why not just open for 750-900 and fold to a re-raise, figuring you're dominated by AQ, AK, JJ, QQ, KK, AA. Raising to 750 gives you as much of a shot at the pot and makes the same statement. Overbetting PF is good in the moment, but why not minimize you risk. Push to good flop or check/fold.

[Malachii]

I think at this point in the tournie he has to be prepared to go all the way with any hand he plays. If he opens and then folds, he'll get anted to death. Thus, I would push in order to apply maximum pressure to a potential caller.

[betgo]

What drugs are u on? You have 7xBB. The BB is 600. You can't open to 900 and you can't fold to a reraise.

[Mad Genius1]

It seems that the consensus here is to push, which is what I did. The button called me with 99 and I failed to improve. I hate second-guessing myself but I admit that I did after I lost here. I try not to be results-oriented but I thought to myself that if I folded here I would have a better spot to push once the blinds passed.

[Wideout88]

The concensus seems to be to push on this one, while i certainly dont disagree with that play, i think there is something to be said about looking into folding this here.

Since this is a tight table, chances are you are not going to get called by A10 or worse, therefore you will only be in a coinflip or dominated by a better Ace. So if we give the caller a range of say AK-AJ and AA-66 pokerstove has you at a 35% favorite to win the pot. With 4300 chips, a double up would give you between 9000-9600 depending on who called, so lets say 9450, therefore your chip equity is

9450*.35=3307.50

Now lets say you fold, you lose 1000 through the blinds which puts you at 3300, now you are in late position at a tight table, so its likely it will get folded to you, if you now proceed to push with any two, you are a lot less likely to have someone wake up with a hand that can call you putting you right back at 4400 except in more favorable position this time so you can proceed to steal again. If you push into the 1000 dollar pot you are leaving the BB with 2700 into a 4300 pot, not good enough odds without a decent hand. If you do happen to get called, if you are pushing with two cards below a 10, you are a lot less likely to be dominated and are closer to 40% to double up.

Around 7000 would be your double up and

7000*.40=2800

Which is not more that 3307.50, but there a lot of variables left out that i think will bump this number up and the other number down.

Now obviously my math is leaving out a lot of important variables like fold equity, which has a lot to do with my argument towards a possible fold. I was simply trying to provide a little basis for considering the other approach. Wonder what you all thought and if someone wanted to expand on the math to make it better suited to make a decision.

*note* this is only because he said this table is playing very tight, if this was not the case i think a push is always in order here.

[Piers]

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*note* this is only because he said this table is playing very tight, if this was not the case i think a push is always in order here.

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I think if the table is looser you should tighten up.

Oh, Push AJo of course.