Folded AA on river...evaluate my play

#1 11-04-2005, 01:55 AM

Villain is 39/10/2.33 after 50 hands. Flop c/r tells me he either has a club or a K, probably a K. Am I wrong to take the line I did?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, Button folds, UTG raises, UTG+1 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls.

Turn: (7.70 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (7.70 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 8.70 BB

GMan42 · #2 11-04-2005, 01:59 AM

It's certainly conceivable that you still have the best hand, but not the 12% or so of the time you need. I'd let it go and not worry too much about it.

olavfo · #3 11-04-2005, 02:08 AM

Villain could have a big club and be pumping his flushdraw on the flop. I think you need to bet this turn to avoid giving him a free card those times you're ahead. If he raises you have an easy fold.

hobbsmann · #4 11-04-2005, 02:37 AM

bet the turn.

flopmonster · #5 11-04-2005, 03:15 AM

Bet the turn and definitely fold the river...If checkraised on the turn I would also let it go barring any crazy reads

The Goober · #6 11-04-2005, 03:15 AM

I wouldn't put much stock in a 50 hand read. There are a lot more clubs than Ks out there. I'd bet this turn every time.

#7 11-04-2005, 03:34 AM

Gah. Ok.

SeaEagle · #8 11-04-2005, 10:15 AM

Not betting the turn was really costly here. Granted, it's unlikely you're ahead but, because the turn was checked through, an aggressive player will be betting any two cards and you have to fold and not see the showdown.

Bet the turn, take a free showdown if offered. Fold to a raise or a river bet.

ErrantNight · #9 11-04-2005, 10:38 AM

You can bet the turn and fold to a c/r. If he's got a pair and a club you really don't want him drawing for free. If he flat calls the turn you can bet a safe river, or check behind a scary one (or fold if he bets)

#10 11-04-2005, 04:37 PM

New hypothetical. Let's say I'm now OOP. On the flop I bet, villain raises, I 3-bet, call. Turn is the 2nd K, I bet, he calls. What's my river plan?