AQo - Can you fold this river?

JoshuaD · #1 12-23-2005, 12:05 PM

This is a 5/10 hand and I'm posting it here because this is a really close situation, I want to get advice from players that are stronger than me, and because it's a situation that applies across the limits. If you don't like it don't respond or report me to a mod. I don't think this is out of line.

Villian is a solid TAG by stats (24/19/2.2) over 331 hands. I don't have any other read.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.20 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, BB calls, Hero raises, Button calls, BB folds.

River: (11.20 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15.20 BB

I had Brazilio look a buncha hands over for me, and this is what he said about this one:

[ QUOTE ]
You know what he has, but I never fold either. Capping preflop is a good option, not sure about that BB calling 2. ez cap HU

[/ QUOTE ]

Two questions:

1) I tend to see BB calling as a reason to cap, since I get a nice overlay. I haven't looked up this guys stats, but I'm assuming anyone who calls there like that is a donk, and has either got AA or is worse.

2) Can you find a fold on this river? I remember the hand vividly. The jack fell, I said "Don't have AJ" and bet. He raised, I called. Can't I fold here?

ALL1N · #2 12-23-2005, 12:23 PM

Cap's good preflop.

Prolly find a fold on the riverina at 5/T, yeah.

disjunction · #3 12-23-2005, 12:44 PM

(1) I cap, but I don't think it's a huge deal.

(2) I'm not good enough to find a fold either while multitabling, but it is one. I'd say you're good 1 in 25 instead of 1 in 15. If you've made any betfolds lately you have to call. This is a super-unique situation. Because of the rainbow and the low cards I simply see hand that he plays this way that you can beat, except possibly 66. Or if he's a bad player with good stats.

JoshuaD · #4 12-23-2005, 12:49 PM

Are you guys more inclined to cap preflop with the BB folding or calling?

disjunction · #5 12-23-2005, 01:11 PM

I want the extra money in with the BB calling, because he's an unknown and lots of unknowns at Party 5/10 will call with 77 or a suited connector. Kind of similar to what you said in the OP, except I don't think the mere call makes him bad. If I have reason to think he's tight, reason to think he may fold AJo and/or doesn't have a PP under TT, then calling becomes better. Offsuit hands play better with less people in the pot, and if you're at the point where you're worried about domination, then you don't want to be building pots.

Heads up I cap usually. If his PFR were under 10 or so I might not. Against this guy, I don't know what his 3-betting range is. I'm not thrilled about my AQo but I'm not in bad shape either. I commented about AQo in another thread in medium stakes. My position is that if there's a spot where you show strength with AK and not AQ, and your opponents pick up on it, then you're wearing an "I don't have an Ace" sign on your head in situations where you cap and the flop is A-high. So you must be wary of doing this. Until I analyze these situations in more detail I'm living by this rule.

You might want to try PokerStoving it. It's fun and you get a feel for these situations.