River Raises

[lehighguy]

Alot of times I will have TPTK and some passive person will raise or bet into me on the river. No flush or straight hit, but I know they just beat me (usually the board just paired or they hit two pair).

But the pots are huge. Can I afford to fold these. If I do fold, do I need to get up and leave the table before people take shots at me.

Here is an example.

6max 5/10 limit
Hero has AK in SB. UTG is straightfoward loose passive.

UTG limps, CO limps, Button raises, hero 3-bets, UTG calls, CO folds.

Flop: A, 5, 2 two diamonds.
Hero bets, UTG calls, Button raises, hero 3 bets, UTG calls, button calls.

Turn: 9 unsuited
Hero bets, UTG calls, Button Calls.

River: 5 unsuited
Hero bets, UTG raises, button folds, hero ???

I KNOW he hit a third five. Can I fold? DO I have to leave if I do.
I called and he turned over 53o and I kept punching myself.

[Guruman]

i tend to take river raises from passive guys pretty seriously. I don't think I can find a fold on that particular hand, but in more marginal situations I think it can be fine.

Passive guys will raise on the river when thier hands improve. They don't bluff raise there, but they don't read your hand either. Just determine if the hand could have improved past what you hold and weigh that in. Try not to get MUBS though. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Stefan_K]

Dont fold here, yes often you are beten but not always

[jt1]

I wouldn't trust any read well enough to fold tptk in a 15 bb pot. Nor do I think should anyone. Most players are capable of acting out of character from time to time.

[gharp]

I think what you're saying is, "if someone who never bluffs raises me on a river scare card, can I fold to the raise". The answer to that is yes, of course.

So the second question is "do I have to leave the table so that he won't bluff at me again?". Well if he never bluffs you don't have to, right? The other players may take shots at you, but you can call when they do.

In reality, I think everyone bluffs sometimes. In this hand, given the size of the pot on the end (about 15BB, I think) I would certainly call too. You don't have to be right very often to show a profit with that call.

[jt1]

In one of Harrington's books, he says that even the most passive players in the world are capable of bluffing 10% of the time. He uses that in his calculations when deciding what play to make.

[numeri]

You only need to be good 6% of the time here on the river. It's definitely close. I think we need a firmer read to fold.

[ QUOTE ]
I KNOW he hit a third five.

[/ QUOTE ]

No you don't. I've seen a lot of players whom I had designated "loose-passive" who will bluff-raise on the river when a scare card comes. "loose-passive" is a broad category, and doesn't always accurately indicate whether the player is capable of making a move like this.

The standard question is this: is it worth risking one big bet to win 17? In other words, are you more than 94% sure that you're beaten? Not without a strong read. Huge pot; don't dump it, and don't punch yourself either.

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
In one of Harrington's books, he says that even the most passive players in the world are capable of bluffing 10% of the time. He uses that in his calculations when deciding what play to make.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but I think that in limit, this is an overestimate. Bluffs aren't as powerful when they're just one BB. You're more likely to encounter situations that meet Sklansky's criteria where it's impossible for the person to be bluffing. My personal metric is more like 5%, which means that in a 20 BB HU pot, I'm calling one on the river with just about anything reasonable.

[ QUOTE ]
Sklansky's criteria where it's impossible for the person to be bluffing

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting; I'm not familiar with these. HPFAP? TOP?