$109's... The future looks bleak, the pot looks big...

[bigt439]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (10 handed) converter

MP1 (t1345)
MP2 (t1150)
MP3 (t1075)
Hero (t955)
Button (t975)
SB (t955)
BB (t1245)
UTG (t730)
UTG+1 (t240)
UTG+2 (t1330)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls t30, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls t30, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t125</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls t95, MP2 calls t95.

Flop: (t420) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t225</font>, UTG+2 calls t225, MP2 calls t225.

Turn: (t1095) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets t980 (All-In)</font>, MP2 calls t800 (All-In), Hero ?

I don't have to be good that often... but am I good ever?

[microbet]

You're pretty much quadupeling up if you win - counting the 700 or so you have at that point.

So you gotta win like 1 out of 3.5 or something.

I don't think so. There are a lot of nuts out there, but 1 out of 5 or more seems more like what it is, unless you know they are nuts.

[Apathy]

easy fold.

[11t]

Yah you gotta muck this.

[microbet]

Too late to edit "quadupeling" [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[adanthar]

See, if timing tells were at all useful, this is where you would try to pick up how much the caller likes his hand. But they're not, so you're obviously against a set and have to fold.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
See, if timing tells were at all useful, this is where you would try to pick up how much the caller likes his hand. But they're not, so you're obviously against a set and have to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Set wasn't really my big worry. I'm pretty sure I've got one of them, either semi-bluffing or cold-calling with spades, OESD, or a combo, but KQ is my big fear. I mean, yes, I'm worried about sets, but I think KQ is way more likely. Looks like whoever has the best hand improved to it on the turn IMO.

Think you have to bet more on the flop. Fold the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm wondering about the flop bet. Just a little more than half a pot size bet seems kind of small for that flop. I actually don't know if you could make it any bigger without just pushing in that spot though. Could you leave yourself with ~t500 after a pot sizer? I'd fold for sure after the turn action...and probably to KQ like you said.