similiar to the 'paranoia' post...

[Monty Cantsin]

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I think calling the flop raise and planning to fold to a turn bet has no merit.

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What about asymmetric risk preference? Now that you know you're behind, don't you want to roll them bones?


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I'm all for metagame but I'm not for throwing away ~0.4 BBs for a play that probably won't even be noticed.

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But the fold is metagame. It's not metagame setup, it's metagame payoff. The reason you spend money to establish a rep as a strong player who doesn't fold easily is so you can make folds.

Metagame is like an account, you invest pennies in it by making plays that have a slight negative short-term EV in order to project a certain image. Occasionally you must profit from this image or those investments were wasted!

Also, you have to look at this from your opponents' point of view. From their perspective it might look less like you made a tough laydown and more like you raised with junk.

When I make a fold like this I do it with devious glee.

/mc

[StellarWind]

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Raise flop continuation bet: 1/24
Call flop continuation bet: 13/24
Fold flop continuation bet: 10/24

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What does this mean? Where does it come from?

[StellarWind]

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What if I didn't have a read?

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Folding is way out of line mathematically speaking. JJ is a far above average hand for you in this situation. Raising any pair to isolate your big ace is a normal play for him. You would give up far too much by folding especially after BB drops out.

For the player who said that raising an OESD makes no sense, I disagree. If you can isolate an ace you solidify six outs for 76. Would you call two cold on the flop from the BB with 88 or 65? Tough spot to be in. If you later push the ace off the pot you gain heavily. Against the right opponents raising can be very good.

[numeri]

Hey Stellar,

While you make a good point, it sounds like you're arguing against an opponent who thinks like us. I know we're making judgements based solely on stats, but this player doesn't look like someone who'd make those plays after raising only once out of 24 opportunities vs. a continuation bet in 137 hands.

[Monty Cantsin]

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Folding is way out of line mathematically speaking.

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If he doesn't have the Q then he probably has a hand with 5 to 8 outs against us, lets call it 6.

In these cases, if we want to go to SD, he has 2 shots at 6 outs and we have 2 shots at 2 outs.

So if he has the Q 50% of the time, it seems like our overall equity is somewhere in the neighborhood of 1/3 of a ~9 BB final pot.

Under these assumptions it costs us 2.5 BB to make 3. Seems like breakeven would be him having the Q like 60% of the time.

Obviously, this is a gross simplification, but I don't think it's way out of line mathematically.

I think never folding here would be a mistake. I think always folding here would be a mistake.

I like using our relative hand strength as an indicator of whether to fold, but I like using our read on our opponent too.

/mc

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I think never folding here would be a mistake. I think always folding here would be a mistake.

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I agree. That's why I said I usually play it this way. You might lean toward calling if you had a backdoor draw, and lean toward folding if you don't. In this case, you might fold. You might also lean one way or the other based on feel, like how fast he clicked, for example. This is no doubt a tough spot, especially without a good read.

[waffle]

Monty,

I looked up asymmetric risk preference, and all I got out of it is that losing $50 might distress someone more than winning $50 makes him happy. But as poker players, we shouldn't use this in our decisions, should we? EV is EV as long as we have the bankroll to back it up.

As far as the tough laydown.. I still don't see a 0.4 bb difference in folding the flop and folding the turn. In both situations they raised my continuation bet and got me to lay down my hand.

Stellar,

These stats indicate that we've seen opponent react to a flop continuation bet 24 times and outline what he did each time. They can be found in PokerAceHUD.

Peter,

I think Ed Miller's section on loose flop calls mentioned the cavet that it should be done when the difference between folding and calling is otherwise close. I don't think it's close in this situation, because we're only drawing to two outs. (The idea that we may be ahead is not useful if we're planning on folding the turn, since we will never realize that equity.)

All,

I called down and was shown QJ. I didn't look up his detailed continuation bet / flop behavior statistics in the heat of battle.

Waffle

[StellarWind]

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Hey Stellar,

While you make a good point, it sounds like you're arguing against an opponent who thinks like us. I know we're making judgements based solely on stats, but this player doesn't look like someone who'd make those plays after raising only once out of 24 opportunities vs. a continuation bet in 137 hands.

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You guys did see that I was answering OP's secondary question about how to play this situation without a read?

You cannot go around folding nut no-top-pair without a read. What is that--80% of all your hands you are folding because someone raised the flop in a situation where it is normal to raise weak made hands to drive out the third player?

I just made 80% up because I'm lazy and don't want to make up a hand range for my steal and count the hands, but it must be an awful lot. Essentially you are saying that unless I have AA-QQ or AQ-9Q I'm done here. Ridiculous.

Of course if you think you know what he has for his raise then you can do whatever you want. But folding JJ cannot be a general policy here against unknown players.

[numeri]

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You guys did see that I was answering OP's secondary question about how to play this situation without a read?

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No sir, I did not. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

So in the general case versus an unknown, do you simply call down if no scary cards fall? If so, what are the scary cards?

[ArturiusX]

Fold looks ok, I don't mind a peel either.