Inducing a mistake?

[soah]

For a long time I've been pretty rigid in keeping constant bet sizes regardless of the strength of my hand. The only times I would vary significantly would be if there were four cards to a flush on the board, the remaining stack sizes were ackward, or some other unusual circumstances. The theory was that I didn't want to give out any information on the strength of my hand. I think that this is the wrong approach. Giving away information is only harmful if your opponent can correctly analyze the information most of the time. Against players who do not think as deeply as I do, I should be able to manipulate them into making bigger mistakes. Giving away information can only become harmful when it gets to the point that my opponent can recognize patterns in my betting. As long as my opponents do not know me well, and/or I am randomizing my betting deviations sufficiently, my opponents can only guess at what my unusual bet means.

Lately, I have been looking for spots to start experimenting with odd bets. Here is a hand I played:

2/4 6-max. The player in the button's seat may or may not have been sitting out this hand. I'm not sure. So either five- or six-handed. UTG raises to $13. Next guy folds. Very mediocre super-LAG folds. This guy has been getting involved in a ton of hands and attempting to push people around. He has built up a very large stack despite the fact that he isn't very good at what he's doing. He's not involved in this hand, but it's worth mentioning him since it makes it much less likely for UTG to be raising marginal cards (the LAG min-reraises extremely often). The SB calls. I have KK in the BB. I carefully analyze the situation, and then proceed to completely botch everything up by raising to only $45. Fortunately UTG folds, and SB calls. SB is pretty tight and not too bad, but not too great either. Earlier when the game was three-handed he accidently picked me off when I raised 54o on the button and bet the flop. He had check-called the flop with just a draw and won with no pair when the turn and river were checked through. He checked the hand history to see what I had and expressed a bit of shock at me getting out of line like that. Overall he should view me as tight/solid and tricky/aggressive (I was tangling a fair amount with the LAG when it was three-handed but when the game was full I mostly stayed away). He started this hand with roughly $350, I think.

So off to the flop we go, and I expect him to hold a pocket pair at least 90% of the time here and AK almost all of the rest of the time. Flop comes out scattered low cards, he checks to me, and there's $100 in the pot. According to all the previous hands he has seen me play, I should bet $66-85 here with whatever I have.

I bet $40.

<font color="#666666">Here's a quick recap for those that got lost: UTG ($600) raises to $13, fold, fold, next guy either folds or was sitting out (can't remember), SB ($350) calls, I ($600) raise to $45 in bb with KK, UTG folds, SB calls. Flop is non-broadway garbage, SB checks, I bet $40 into a $100 pot.</font>

[Malachii]

The idea here is to induce a raise, yes? While I like the idea, I think this almost guarantees that you will be stacked if he does infact have a set.

[DoomSlice]

Isn't the goal to ALWAYS bet the biggest amount that will cause him to make a mistake without forcing him to fold (and thus play correctly?) I was under the impression that the players routinely mix in these smaller bet amounts, along with some post-oak bluffs as well.

[soah]

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I was under the impression that the players routinely mix in these smaller bet amounts

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You feel my play here is standard, then?

[soah]

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The idea here is to induce a raise, yes? While I like the idea, I think this almost guarantees that you will be stacked if he does infact have a set.

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$100 in the pot, he has $300 behind, and there are three rounds of betting left. At what point should I be able to get away? My hand will be good 85% of the time here, but he's always drawing live. Checking could cost me what's in the pot, betting could cost me money from my stack; nothing is perfect.

[DoomSlice]

Certainly not standard in the sense that most people would recommend it, but yes, standard in the sense that you used your read to determine the correct bet size.

[TheWorstPlayer]

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I was under the impression that the players routinely mix in these smaller bet amounts

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You feel my play here is standard, then?

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I think if you're not mixing up your betting amounts postflop you are playing sub-optimally, yes. This is the ideal spot to mix it up. The goal is for them to never know when you have AK and when you have KK here. AND to make them make the biggest mistake when they make a mistake.

Folding when they are ahead is usually not that big a mistake. They are rarely very far ahead of your hand range. Even if you only have two overcards, you still have 6 outs (most likely twice if they check the turn) to catch up. But calling the flop when they only have two outs is a pretty big mistake. So you should basically do everything you can to get them to call the flop with an unimproved pair. Particularly if they will fold it to a second barrel, so that you can win the pot even if when you DON'T have an overpair. So, I think having a standard bet amount and then occasionally lowering it with an overpair is a really nice way to go about things.

[xorbie]

Not only do I love the flop, but I would also push the turn if he just calls. And also I almost never bet the same amount.

[JaBlue]

I like your flop bet size and I like your thoughts too. I've noticed that a lot of good players bet wierd amounts that induce mistakes. It is often hard to tell when they are weak leading so that they can 3-bet all in, or post oaking, or have a huge hand, or whatever. If you can correctly master betsizes then I think varying your betsizes more is better than always betting the same % of the pot (which is what I currently do).

Post some more hands where you try this stuff and PS I think if you do this with KK you should also be doing it with AK sometimes.

[soah]

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Not only do I love the flop, but I would also push the turn if he just calls. And also I almost never bet the same amount.

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Both you and TWP advocate playing it strong on the turn. I actually hadn't planned out the turn in advance (sounds smart, huh?). I guess I wanted to see what fell.

Another low card came and he checked to me. $180 in the pot now and he has more than a pot-bet left.

I felt my options were:
1) Check. It will further reinforce the idea that I am very weak and could earn me bonus action on the river.
2) Bet weak again. His most likely hand is a weakish pocket pair, and this could put him in a pickle. If he thinks he is ahead, his hand is vulnerable out of position in a big pot. And unless he's certain he's beaten, can he really afford to lay down his hand getting a good price in a big pot? On the other hand, he could correctly conclude that I am trying to trap him and fold... as I said, he's been playing pretty tight and I don't expect him to spew chips on command.
3) Bet big. The hope here is that he reads my weak flop bet as AK, and refuses to change his read. Will it work? I'm afraid that instead this show of strength will just get him to play correctly against me by mucking pairs and moving in with sets.

I ended up checking. The math shows that I am ok to bet $40 on the flop and give him two chances to catch a set... he only catches one time in ten, so he must get back $400+ before he shows a profit chasing there. Stacks are not deep enough to make that possible. And that is assuming he plays perfectly, while in reality I am choosing this line because it maximizes my chances of getting action from worse hands.

So I check the turn, yet another blank falls on the river and he bets $100. Call or push?