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#1
10-18-2005, 12:50 AM
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call this massive river raise with nut flush?
Villain is 50/0/1 after 40 hands, do I give him credit for the straight flush?
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter Button ($38.07) Hero ($42.15) BB ($3.50) UTG ($0) MP ($24.15) CO ($24.75) Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.10. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls $0.25, Hero (poster) completes, BB checks. Flop: ($0.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> Hero checks, BB checks, Button checks. Turn: ($0.75) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $0.5</font>, Hero calls $0.50, BB folds. River: ($1.75) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, Button calls $35.32 (All-In), Hero ?!!?!?. Final Pot: $76.39 
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#3
10-18-2005, 12:54 AM
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Re: call this massive river raise with nut flush?
fold it
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#4
10-18-2005, 12:54 AM
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Re: call this massive river raise with nut flush?
That's the thing, there's one single card in the deck that beats me... but his betting tells me he has that card...
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#5
10-18-2005, 12:56 AM
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Re: call this massive river raise with nut flush?
With that action on the river, do you think he's trying to get you to fold the ace. I think he has it here like 90%+ of the time
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#7
10-18-2005, 12:57 AM
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Re: call this massive river raise with nut flush?
The highest flush he could have without the SF is the 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] With his low aggression he's not doing this with the 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] At 25NL I probably couldn't fold this but I'd say "Nice straight flush" before I call [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Based on his stats though I think he shows the SF more than 33% of the time.
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#8
10-18-2005, 12:58 AM
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Re: call this massive river raise with nut flush?
[ QUOTE ]
why you put him on the j? [/ QUOTE ] He is 0% PFR. Plus, his VPIP combined with his postflop aggression puts as as super-super passive. He has the J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] way more than 33% of the time.
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#10
10-18-2005, 01:06 AM
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Re: call this massive river raise with nut flush?
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I'm pretty sure I'd just pay him off, it's such a rare case that it doesn't really matter what you do. [/ QUOTE ] Severity of error multiplied by frequency of occurance. I'll pay off the SF with the NF on an unpaired board every time at PP 25NL. HOWEVER, I think this is a good hand for analysis because I really really don't think this villain is doing this without the straight flush.
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