Getting into Battles Too Early On? Interesting Hand & Analysis

[KramerTM]

In analyzing this hand, I was trying to think… how would a world-class player have played this hand? Granted they are infinitely better post-flop than I am, but do these players get into confrontations like this one this early in a tournament? Seems unlikely (and unprofitable) to me. Analysis an all streets encouraged!

Set-up
500K Super Satellite.
$10 buy-in.
200 entrants
Top 8 get seats in 500K tournament.
BB seems tight, but it is early. No other reads.
Blinds 10/20

Relevant Stacks
HERO in SB (1015)
BB (840)
UTG+1 (1440)
CO (905)
Button (475)

Pre-Flop
HERO is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in SB.

All players limp, HERO completes, BB checks.

Flop (100): 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

<font color="red">This seems like one of those times where Harrington says people play stronger than they actually are. My position is the worst it can be. I have TPTK with an inside straight draw and backdoor nut flush draw, but there is a better straight draw on board and a flush draw. Not to mention some people will routinely limp with 22-TT at this point in the tournament. What would your play be here? </font>

Hero bets 70, SB calls, UTG+1 folds, CO raises to 140, Button folds,

<font color="red">At this point I can put CO on either a) 44 b) a set c) over pair d) A2, A3, A5 d) A4 for the straight e) 2 diamonds. Lots of hands I still beat here and I can always get away if the turn comes scary. Plus, I assume BB is coming along for the ride. Would anyone fold to this min-raise? </font>

Hero calls 70, BB calls 70.

Turn (520): [2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

<font color="red"> Seems like a perfect card for me as I now beat many of his holdings. Still losing to a set, A4, and 44, but my situation definitely improved. I’ll lead out here, as I don’t want to give a free card to diamond draw.</font>

Hero bets 250, BB moves all-in for 680, CO folds,

<font color="red">Suddenly, the BB woke up here and obviously does not want to see another card come for cheap. This is the critical part of the hand, I think. Now, this is a limped/checked BB hand I am up against, so there are many ways outside of 44 that she can be holding a 4 here for the straight. I convince myself that there are enough A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hands she can be holding that she would also make this play with. Plus, I have to factor in my odds of hitting my 4 outs to fill up. I am getting 1450/430, better than 3:1, to make the call, so…</font>

Hero calls 430.

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Sounds to me like you are going out of your way to put your opponents on hands that would justify a call from you. I think the bet-out on the flop is good, but when CO puts in that min-raise and BB is still behind me, I think I fold. You really think CO is min-raising pocket 4's or A2 against two active, unraised blinds (plus the button behind him) on this board? Plus, you're not considering BB's possible holdings on the flop; it's very likely you don't have all your outs.

I think BB likely has a flush draw or a 4. If BB holds a 4, you've got between 3-8 outs. If he's drawing to a flush, you've got 3-7 outs, fewer if he's got an A or a 6 in his hand as well. Even if you knew for sure which cards were outs for you, you're only going to hit one on the turn 10-15% of the time. I know it feels donkish to fold to a minraise, but even getting 5:1 from the pot, you don't have the odds you need to hit the turn, especially since you don't know for sure which cards are good for you when you do hit.

Not knowing which cards are outs for you means you can't count on implied odds. If a 4 comes, you aren't likely to collect any more money, even from a set, though you could lose your stack to someone holding a 6. If the A diamonds falls and you were up against A2, you aren't going to get paid off, and you might even be forced to fold to a donk raise.

Meanwhile, the reverse implied odds your opponents have against you are big. If the 4 does fall, anyone with a 6 will probably take a chunk from you. If a 5 falls, someone holding a boat could stick you.

For me, the biggest problem is that I'm out of position, I don't know where I stand, and I can only expect things to get more confusing, expensive, and dangerous on future streets. So I'd fold the flop. You tested the waters, someone told you your hand was no good, you ought to believe him.

The turn fold is a no brainer. You put out another probe bet, a guy who could very well have made a straight just went all in, with the flop aggressor still to act behind him, and you are hoping to hit a four-outer on the river? That will happen less than 10% of the time. These are the reverse implied odds that should have made you fold on the flop.

The reason for betting out the flop is to get information. You got it, now use it.

[KramerTM]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason for betting out the flop is to get information. You got it, now use it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great analysis and thanks for taking the time to read my wordy post.

I'm going to read (and reread) what you said because I think there are some small gems in there.

I think the best point you made is that my hand is giving terrible reverse implied odds. I mostly likely don't get paid off if either a) I am best or b) improve to the best hand on the turn. This does, in retrospect, seem like a win small/lose big situation. Perhaps I should fold to the flop min-raise simply because hitting an A here will get me into more trouble? The next best play, I think, is calling the flop bet, betting around 175-200 on the turn, and folding to a raise, and perhaps check/calling the river depending on the bet size (and assuming a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] doesn't fall).

[KramerTM]

Bump for the night crowd. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[curtains]

I check these flops. When is the last time something good has happen to you after betting into a field in these situations?

[adanthar]

I would tend to CR this flop or check/call it more than I would bet it, but betting's OK. So you bet, BB calls (he has a pair, a draw, or both, probably at least a 5), CO minraises (can be an overpair, draw, or bluff...)

...you call (I fold right there because you will either see a turn bet, a card you don't like, or both), and BB overcalls (now I tend to think 'draw'.)

Turn ace. This card is either somewhat good for you or really bad for you, and either way, you should check. Do you see why? Well, you probably do now - you have to know which draw BB was on.

[KramerTM]

[ QUOTE ]
When is the last time something good has happen to you after betting into a field in these situations?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably around June 22, 1998 when everyone just folded the flop and I won a tiny pot. So you're checking here with the intention of doing what when there is action on the flop? Folding to a large bet or to a bet and a raise? I like how your play keeps the pot small and commits me less.

[KramerTM]

[ QUOTE ]
I would tend to CR this flop or check/call it more than I would bet it, but betting's OK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Something about CRing a pot on the flop where I will be OOP with a VERY vulnerable hand if I get called feels risky. How do you follow up the CR given the turn card that came and assuming I was called by both players?

[ QUOTE ]
Turn ace. This card is either somewhat good for you or really bad for you, and either way, you should check. Do you see why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sort of. I'm thinking that I can gain information cheaper than by betting out 250 here by checking and seeing the action. Also, I'm learning that when the hand that beat me might be a monster, check/calling will often keep your entire stack from getting in the middle (whereas betting out shows you have something strong and indicates to your opponent that he can push you all in and get called). But aren't you sick if it gets checked here and a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] falls on the river? Perhaps you can elaborate why you advocate a check on the turn.

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When is the last time something good has happen to you after betting into a field in these situations?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably around June 22, 1998 when everyone just folded the flop and I won a tiny pot. So you're checking here with the intention of doing what when there is action on the flop? Folding to a large bet or to a bet and a raise? I like how your play keeps the pot small and commits me less.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's the right answer.

If there is a bet on the flop but no raise, you have a couple options. If the bet comes from an early position and two or three players fold, you can consider a check-raise (since you will usually have the best made hand here). If a late-position player bets big and you still have players to act behind you, you should probably just give it up.

[KramerTM]

[ QUOTE ]
If the bet comes from an early position and two or three players fold, you can consider a check-raise (since you will usually have the best made hand here). If a late-position player bets big and you still have players to act behind you, you should probably just give it up.

[/ QUOTE ]

This confuses me slightly. When I check a flop with the intention of potentially CRing, I am much more inclined to CR an LP bet than a EP bet, my reason being that the EP bettor bet into a field of active players who have not defined their hand yet. Whereas an LP bettor bet after it got checked around to him and everyone indicated weakness. The LP bettor is much more likely to be on a steal, plus you are making the rest of the field call a bet and a raise cold in order to continue with this hand. In fact, this line (checking the flop with the intention of CRing only the CO) might have won the hand as BB was pretty solid and might have layed down the draw.