Bar Stool Pundits, week 11

[natedogg]

I'm on the road so I'm not giving a full write up, just the picks. Record so far 7-17-1 (THANK YOU JON GRUDEN).

The Bar Stool Pundits are all over


Carolina
Seattle


So Ill be on

Chicago
San Francisco


Remember, my BSP picks are more than just purely fading the public. It's a combination of the public betting trend, the so called experts, my "gut" feeling (the worse it is the more I fade it), and various individuals I poll who are known to choose poorly. It's an art not a science.

So far it's working but as the sample size is still too small to know if I'm just crazy or actually onto something.

natedogg

[jedi]

Damn, I was wondering where you went. I already had SF, I'll get to add Carloina as well.

[greg586]

if u r on the road.....how do u know what the bar stool pundits are saying........i thought denver.........would be the bsp pick of the week...

[jedinite]

Chicago is a very strong play, i've got a lot in my picks thread on why.

This is the first time that my game of the week has been one of your BSP picks (the wrong direction), although I was very close to making Chicago the GOTW anyways. We'll see whose picks record is still standing after this one [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[youtalkfunny]

[ QUOTE ]
So far it's working but as the sample size is still too small to know if I'm just crazy or actually onto something.

natedogg

[/ QUOTE ]

You're definitely on to something.

When I booked in Vegas, the computer would tell us how lopsided the betting was in each game. Fading the lopsided public was so strong, we called this computer "the crystal ball".

[natedogg]

Adding Jets + 14.

too many experts are all over the Broncos, and I feel ill putting money on the jets, so Jets it is.

So for today I'm on

bears
9ers
jets


natedogg

[27offsuit]

[ QUOTE ]
Adding Jets + 14.

too many experts are all over the Broncos, and I feel ill putting money on the jets, so Jets it is.

So for today I'm on

bears
9ers
jets


natedogg

[/ QUOTE ]

I love it natedogg! As I was just walking out of the local pub, the boyos asked "What's the play of the day Tag?"

I said "Jets......you heard it here first", and they collectively puked in their beers.

Additional info on this game below:




PS8X-6 (38.0) – Play AGAINST a non-Thursday home favorite of 7+ points with a TOTAL of less than 47 points before a Thursday road contest in its next game.



SU: 6-6-1 (0.3) ATS: 13-0 (9.0)






As shown, these large home favorites are 0-13 ATS since 1987, failing to cover the spread by 9 points a game on average. The Denver Broncos are favored by nearly 2 TDs in their home game against the New York Jets on Sunday. The Broncos will then play at Dallas on Thanksgiving, qualifying DENVER as a Play-AGAINST team vs. the Jets

[scalf]

hey; doggy,doggy, nate:

nice posts regarding bar stool pudits and betting against these; by this time; i think this is the way to bet nfl football..

think about it..the scoring in nfl is so unfair...difficult to predict events (i.e. fumble, injuries, officials' calls) which really do affect the game winner; but more so the point spread winners...

oddly; i do feel that handicapping by traditional methods is worthwhile, but marginally profitable; whereas, understanding public sentiment; and analyzing money movement; along with pointspread movement; is where the money is...that was a mouthfull...

the single most important of these factors, imo, is first recognizing barstool picks..(or straight picks) and taking advantage of both a pointspread, or ml odds advantage, as the breaks return to the mean..

consider checking out the website poundcakes.com.. they claim that they make pix by analyzing parlay cards that unsophisticated bettors use to gamble..and go against the majority pix..

no recommendation here; but hey; it's an idea that makes sense...and will for years to come..

because: no one wants to admit they can't figger the g out better than the bookies...that's one key reason they bet..

anyhow; i'm gonna join big al in a long sabatical from 2 + 2... i have found Rx.com and now the new website created by the shrink eog.com to be much more worthwhile for sports betting; have a lotta freebies, and more fun

also; i really am a shrink..

lol

good luck with your son and family

i really do have a 2 and 4 y.o. daughters

gl

cya at some decrepit book , somewhere, where only the real players hang out..

lol

gl

scalf

[img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]

PS8X-6 (38.0) – Play AGAINST a non-Thursday home favorite of 7+ points with a TOTAL of less than 47 points before a Thursday road contest in its next game.


[/ QUOTE ]

I was on the Jets too, but no offense, this stat seems awfully random.

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

PS8X-6 (38.0) – Play AGAINST a non-Thursday home favorite of 7+ points with a TOTAL of less than 47 points before a Thursday road contest in its next game.


[/ QUOTE ]

I was on the Jets too, but no offense, this stat seems awfully random.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought his trend was a joke. I guess I was wrong.

craig