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View Poll Results: Bankroll Variation
Tournament 18 78.26%
Cash 5 21.74%
Voters: 23. You may not vote on this poll

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  #11  
Old 08-22-2005, 12:28 AM
viennagreen viennagreen is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 60
Default Re: Poll: How has the new level 5 affected your ROI?

i'm not sure why the variance would increase though----

reaching level 5 with X number of players and smaller blinds should intuitively benefit a better player... and reduce variance.

i mean--- i believe you guys that you are experiencing higher variance--- it just seems counter-intuitive though.
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  #12  
Old 08-22-2005, 12:49 AM
Shillx Shillx is offline
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Location: Frog and Peach Pub, Downtown SLO
Posts: 4,478
Default Re: Poll: How has the new level 5 affected your ROI?

Simple example...

You move-in against a single opponent and you both have the same number of chips (say T3000 after posting). He will call your push 20% of the time and everytime he calls it will be a coinflip.

EV (100/200 blinds) : + T250 compared to folding
SD (100/200) : T1298

EV (75/150 blinds) : + T187.5 compared to folding
SD (75/150) : T1320

Less value and more varience with lower blinds. Yuck.

Brad
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  #13  
Old 08-22-2005, 12:59 AM
Isura Isura is offline
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Posts: 69
Default Re: Poll: How has the new level 5 affected your ROI?

[ QUOTE ]
Simple example...

You move-in against a single opponent and you both have the same number of chips (say T3000 after posting). He will call your push 20% of the time and everytime he calls it will be a coinflip.

EV (100/200 blinds) : + T250 compared to folding
SD (100/200) : T1298

EV (75/150 blinds) : + T187.5 compared to folding
SD (75/150) : T1320

Less value and more varience with lower blinds. Yuck.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

But aren't you implying that higher blind levels cause less variance. But with higher blinds (ie shallower stacks), you are put in these situations more often, and hence doesn't the variance go up?

I think a contributing factor to the increased variance with the extra level is that the fish are now playing closer to correct. With high blinds they miss sooo many push opportunities, but with the extra level, their incorrect tight-passiveness is less penalized. For example, someone with 8bb will habitually limp in with marginal hands and make it more difficult to push and steal blinds for a good player. This is just a thought, and I'm sure there are more factors that I'm not considering.
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  #14  
Old 08-22-2005, 01:01 AM
stupidsucker stupidsucker is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 33
Default Re: Poll: How has the new level 5 affected your ROI?

Here is my theory as to why...

The better players steal their way to victory. Bad players don't. When you add in the extra level the bad players are hanging around longer because its easier to stay alive. Pushes are harder to come by for two main reasons.

More players to push through
Less Blinds to pick up

There are really only 2 sweet spots to steal from at level 5 and that is the SB and the button. These situations come up a lot less for me.... Maybe I have just been unlucky for 1k games.

I dunno, I often see things in a different way than others. If Proper SnG strategy banks on FE due to rising blinds than draging it out longer with a new lower level makes perfect sense to increase variance to me. Had they added a new 5-10 level it would have reduced variance, but 75-150 blinds are damaging most to the players that were tight level 1-4.

Edit:
[ QUOTE ]
I think a contributing factor to the increased variance with the extra level is that the fish are now playing closer to correct. With high blinds they miss sooo many push opportunities, but with the extra level, their incorrect tight-passiveness is less penalized. For example, someone with 8bb will habitually limp in with marginal hands and make it more difficult to push and steal blinds for a good player. This is just a thought, and I'm sure there are more factors that I'm not considering.


[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly...
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  #15  
Old 08-22-2005, 01:01 AM
Daliman Daliman is offline
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Default Re: Poll: How has the new level 5 affected your ROI?

I love it. my ROI since it went in is over 20%.
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  #16  
Old 08-22-2005, 01:07 AM
Isura Isura is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 69
Default Re: Poll: How has the new level 5 affected your ROI?

[ QUOTE ]
I love it. my ROI since it went in is over 20%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Holy [censored].
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  #17  
Old 08-22-2005, 02:04 AM
45suited 45suited is offline
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Default Re: Poll: How has the new level 5 affected your ROI?

I think that those players who were previously doing well on the 11s and 22s who are now doing worse need to learn to be more patient.

It defies logic that slowing down the escalation in blinds would hurt the best players. If that's the case, then what you're saying is that a lower stack / blind ratio helps the bad players. Think about that for a second!

In my opinion, patience is the key to the new blinds structure. I pass on potential blinds stealing spots in level 4 with a ~10-12BB stack that other 2+2ers would not be able to pass up. This keeps me out of trouble and I arrive in level 5 with good fighting chances. I have learned to let go of my ego and not feel compelled to steal blinds in the situation that I described above. Not only does this keep me out of trouble, it allows my less skilled opponents to get themselves INTO trouble.

We need to make adjustments to the new structure, but really, I think it's ridiculous on its face that the structure could help the less skilled players.

My ROI on the 11s and 22s was very good before the change, but it has been even better since then. If you're a good player and you're willing to make adjustments to your game, this new structure should be great for your ROI.

Stupidsucker, I know you're a good player, but at a certain point, if you will not make adjustments to the new SNG format, I think you're doing yourself a disservice by just calling your opponents who steal less "bad players". Maybe you are attempting to steal too much? Just a thought... (Not an attempt to insult you whatsoever.)
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  #18  
Old 08-22-2005, 02:25 AM
stupidsucker stupidsucker is offline
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Posts: 33
Default Re: Poll: How has the new level 5 affected your ROI?

I have had to make adjustments...

I talked about this in another post as well. I have been very lazy with adjusting to the new structure.

I understand fully why the idea that adding a new blind structure should help any better player, but the game mechanics of a SnG are different then other forms of poker.

As mentioned in the above posts... Less experianced players are accidently playing level 5 better then they previously were. I have less steal opportunites then I had before. I find myself UTG with 95o and a 550 stack facing a 150 blind in the next hand a lot more often now then before. The magic of a single steal before. It goes to show you how important 75 chips really are.

I am also on tilt. Some bad plays at level 4-6 have cost me some roi. No one to blame but myself on that,. Mix it with some bad luck, bad timing and some important life matters that have been emotionaly draining and I am a wreck.

Sorry if it comes out in my whine posts. Things have been rough for me.
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