Road Trip: Final Report—Foxwoods

[Mark Heide]

Easy E,

If you are in a situation where you are a 2-to-1 favorite, don't you agree that it is a plus EV move and you should play?

If you answered yes to this question, there should be no doubt in your mind that you should play this situation. Since, I analyzed what my opponents would play in this situation, I was able to determine their likelyhood of calling me which was approximately 16%.

I wanted to point out that this is a classic situation where intuitively it feels wrong to make this play, but when you figure out the hand combinations you will sometimes be surprized of what the correct move can be.

Hypothetically, lets say that someone had raised before me and now it is the next hand. Let's say I now have to get past the button, SB, and BB. Well, I already know that if I go all in the button and SB will have an 8% chance each of calling, plus I have to add what the new big blind will do. Let's say that the new BB will play 20% of his hands, so now you have to add the BB, SB, and button which brings the likelyhood of everyone folding 64%. Not, as good. So, it is very important to calculate the range of cards that your opponent will play in these situations.

Note that, waiting another hand could drastically reduce my chances. If someone came in with a raise before I could act, I may have to throw my hand away. In these situations, on average, you end up being a 45-55% favorite with any of the classic all in moves.

Good Luck

Mark

[scalf]

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]..mark

fossil said you done right..

that should settle it..

gl

let's meet in tunica in early jan..i'll buy..gl

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[Mark Heide]

scalf,

The company I work for forces me to use up all of my vacation by the end of the year. I'm skipping Tunica and am going to Vegas in April to probably play a WSOP event, and hang out at Bellagio or Mirage. Drinks are free!

Good Luck

Mark

[Easy E]

going to Vegas in April to probably play a WSOP event

WSOP was moved to July in 2005, unless Harrah's moved it again.

[Easy E]

If you are in a situation where you are a 2-to-1 favorite, don't you agree that it is a plus EV move and you should play?

Certainly on a normal basis, wasn't sure that was true with the added cost of being knocked out with no recourse, on what amounts to mainly a steal bluff.

I wanted to point out that this is a classic situation where intuitively it feels wrong to make this play, but when you figure out the hand combinations you will sometimes be surprized of what the correct move can be.

Yes, this is what I was distracted from back when I thought you were playing blind. In this case, the cards you hold are not part of the calculations.


Hypothetically, lets say that someone had raised before me and now it is the next hand. Let's say I now have to get past the button, SB, and BB. Well, I already know that if I go all in the button and SB will have an 8% chance each of calling, plus I have to add what the new big blind will do. Let's say that the new BB will play 20% of his hands, so now you have to add the BB, SB, and button which brings the likelyhood of everyone folding 64%. Not, as good.
Note that, waiting another hand could drastically reduce my chances.

Yes, my question was around comparing the success rate and EV of moving blind/on any cards vs. potentially a better hand to win with and increased success of winning IF CALLED, which I overrated.

Thanks for all of the follow up