Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Six

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I normally post picks on Fridays, to be sure of late line moves and any late breaking news. But I'm going to be traveling tomorrow, so watch carefully on these picks if there are significant developments or line changes.

Last week: 2-1 (with a push), miss on the Game of the Week. Only a truly awful performance by Alex Smith and a push on Jacksonville kept me from what should have been a perfect week of picks.
12-11 on the season, 3-2 on Game of the Week.
As usual, all lines listed current from Bodog but please lineshop agressively.

Kansas City -6 (-105) vs Washington
The Chiefs are coming off a bye after two disappointing losses to Denver and Philly. The Redskins rank 25th in scoring, averaging 15.5 points a game and are facing a Kansas City team who can put up points in a hurry. The Chiefs get a key offensive player back in ten-time Pro Bowl tackle Willie Roaf, which should open up both the passing and especially the running game. The Washington has lost seven straight contests to AFC opponents and hasn't beaten an AFC team on the road since winning 17-10 at Denver in November 2001. KC also sports a 17-4 record against NFC teams at home since 1995. KC's #9 rush defense should be able to limit Portis enough to keep the Skins in check. 27-14 Kansas City. Game of the Week.

Rams +14 (-115) @ Indy
The Greatest Show on Turf lands in Indy. The Rams bring perhaps the NFL's most potent offense (along with one of the most porous defenses) to the turf surface in Indy. While Indy's defense has looked exceedingly impressive this season, they've done so playing zero credible offenses. The Rams have proven their ability to score big points playing from behind this season, and this is going to be a big backdoor cover if not an outright Rams win. Martz is out, which might actually improve the team's chances assuming the remaining coaching staff doesn't make many of the same ridiculous coaching errors (i.e. they were Martz errors, not coaching staff errors). And while the Rams have a terrible road record, that's really obscured by a larger statistic - the Rams are much better on turf than they are on grass, and a lot of their road losses are "really" losses due to grass surface versus losses because they're on the road IMO. Indy @ home means dome, turf, and the Rams being able to backdoor cover if not outright win this game. Also worth noting that Indy is 6-16-1 SU in their last 23 games after being more than 14 point favorites in the previous game, and that in the game immediately after playing 49ers, the Colts are 0-5 SU. Don't get me wrong, there are a ton of other trends against the Rams (2-8 ATS in their last ten games, for example) and others for the Colts, but these two stood out as worth mentioning. At the end of the day, Payton puts up four touchdowns, but can't stay more than fourteen ahead of the Rampage. 31-21 Indy for the Rams cover.

Vikings +3 @ Bears
"We're just terrible. It's like we suck, man. I don't know what else to tell you. We can't find a way to win ballgames. I hate to say it: We always find a way to lose." - Chicago's starting SS Mike Brown. Thanks Mike. Let's add to that analysis that the Bears have two offensive linemen who are questionable, plus starting RB Thomas Jones is out, and Kyle Orton is still at QB. This is a big rivalry game for both teams, but the Vikings are coming off a bye week and will have put together a solid gameplan. The Chicago defense has done a good job limiting opponents yards and scores, but they haven't held together at crunch time and have allowed teams to pull out come-from-behind victories. The Chicago D will not be enough to overcome a terrible Chicago offense, especially with backups on the line and in the backfield. 21-13 Vikings.

Saints +6 (-115) over Falcons
Purely a public perception play. This line opened with close to 90% of the early money on the Falcons, and the line has barely moved through the week even with the news that the Saints would be down a starting running back. Even with the latest line moves and news that Vick will likely be playing, the money's still split 78% in favor of the Falcons. People tend to overestimate the gap in talent between NFL teams - and forget that the Falcons haven't looked all that impressive. This is purely a pride game against a bitter division rivla for New Orleans after getting pounded last week. Here's hoping for a close game. 21-17 Atlanta for the Saints cover.

As usual, all picks archived on my blog, www.Performify.com