Preflop Decision in 30 Rebuy

[ChrisCo]

Villain in this hand has been playing well but slightly loose. Hasn't shown down anything out of line but has shown a tendency to open limp in mid to late position. Just last hand he open limped and min bet the flop FWIW. Just made the money and 3 tables away from the final table.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t2000 (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

SB (t16140)
BB (t8860)
UTG (t25746)
UTG+1 (t19515)
MP1 (t24010)
MP2 (t95763)
MP3 (t48895)
CO (t23700)
Hero (t33872)

Preflop: Hero is Button with :2d, :ad.
4 folds, MP3 calls t2000, fold, Hero ???


Whats your play and plan for the rest of the hand?

I think the key here is the blinds. My favoured move (depending on my read if their play and my idea of my own table image) would be a flat call. I want this to be a multi-way pot but I'm happy to spend 2000 chips if it encourages the BB move in and then the villain calls, I'd fold.
Assuming the SB folds or checks and the BB calls, I'd reassess depending on the flop, with position. Naturally, I'd call if the SB moved in and the either or both the BB and the villain called.
The danger of a push in the position IMHO is that either or both the blinds call giving the villain value to call which is not really what I want.

Personally, i'd raise it up to 7000. The reason being is that the late position smooth call is ugly. Second, if anyone calls, and the flop is like, hyper ugly for you, you can fold without the continuation bet to steal.

[ChrisCo]

[ QUOTE ]
depending on my read if their play and my idea of my own table image

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Blinds have been giving me respect although the SB has repushed against 2 of my steals from LP within the last hour. I have been card dead since I have been at the table and probably appear somewhat tight because I have not played a hand for a while.

Does this change your decision at all?

I raise to 8k, if BB comes along, he is all-in, it will cost 6k more for the limper to call, which he shouldn't do if no blinds call. I raise to 8k to take it down pre-flop or to have a call by the BB. Fold to any re-raise.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Blinds have been giving me respect although the SB has repushed against 2 of my steals from LP within the last hour.

[/ QUOTE ]

ummm....

i would just fold here. it feels pretty tight, but the other options are unappealing:

- if you raise, you open yourself up to a reraise either from MP or a blind, which would be really bad.
- if you raise and MP calls, he will correctly get away from an Axx flop, but will stack you if he has you beat.
- if you make it, say, 8k then an MP call will bring your stack to 25k and the pot to 19k. this is an awkward spot, and if your chips go in, you're usually drawing to 3 outs.
- on the other hand, stealing 5k would be pretty awesome and if villain is limping a lot but playing well, he'll usually fold to the raise.

so i don't hate a raise.

limping for 1/16 of your stack is kinda ugly though. if MP is likely to bet into you with air (i would be if i were him) you have to be ready to call or raise with air. the blinds will have better relative position, and if the chips go in, you're likely drawing to 3 outs again. also, if a blind raises (it's a loose open-limper and a button limper), that's a big mess.

so i think fold > raise > call.

[ChrisCo]

[ QUOTE ]
- if you raise, you open yourself up to a reraise either from MP or a blind, which would be really bad.
- if you raise and MP calls, he will correctly get away from an Axx flop, but will stack you if he has you beat.
- if you make it, say, 8k then an MP call will bring your stack to 25k and the pot to 19k. this is an awkward spot, and if your chips go in, you're usually drawing to 3 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looking at the way you analyzed I am now leaning towards a push. I am going to be committed to the pot if I make any kind of raise and one of the blinds makes a stand. MP3 likely didn't limp with a pocket pair, and I will push out most weak aces that I am dominated by. I believe his most likely hand is something like JTs or A5. It is a bit of an overbet but I like this line looking at the situation now.

[schwza]

i like a push a lot better if villain has shown some willingness to raise pre-flop. i want to know that he's usually popping AJ / 88 here (or at least that he is with AK/QQ) before i'm pushing 14x.

i don't mind a push though.

edit: just realized it's 17x and not 14x. yeah math skills. i like a push a lot less now.

I think...I limp then. I'm happy (willing) to call a push from either of the blinds so long as MP folds but my guess is that, unless one of them has a real hand, it will be a four way pot and I'm in position.
But, to be honest, I can see reasons to do just about anything.
1. If I hadn't been paying attention, or had no reads I could be sure of, folding is safest. I don't think that can be wrong squeezed between a suspicious limp and two SS yet to act from the blinds.
2. I think a min-raise either prompts a blind to move in and clarifies the limper's position or pushes the blinds out and leaves you HU with the limper in position (assuming the limp is indicative of cards he likes but doesn't love. If he moves in, it's the full time bank and a fold).
3. If you've got tight image, a push could be in order.

However, my favoured approach is to try see flop in position with an ace and the nut flush possibility simply because it could be a tournament maker and I think that it's worth paying a little for that chance.

I'm not sure you're committed to the pot with a raise. If all hell breaks loose behind, it's an easy fold. Likewise, with A2 suited and position, decisions should be relatively straightforward on the flop.