($25NL): Set facing big bet on the end.

Bco1/75 · #1 12-01-2005, 03:14 PM

I think there are only a few possibilities the UTG has that beats you...99,44,KK,QT,JJ. Unless, he is playing KK hoping for a re-raise You can eliminate KK. QT UTG is a low possibility. The only hand he makes this re-raise with that you beat is KJ or a Bluff. I am always warry of the the caller who wakes up on the river. If he has a KJ I think ha would have bet earlier than the river. I don't know if I am willing to make a 1.25:1 call with bottom set when the pot sized turn bet did not deter him.

xJMPx · #2 12-01-2005, 03:29 PM

I'll be honest, I haven't played a ring game in months because I mostly play Sit and Go's. But, I thought I would give them a try again to improve my postflop play.

After reading these comments, I think this was a fold.

The hands that have me beat are 99, KK, 44, JJ and QT.

The hands that I beat that he could reasonably have UTG are KJ, K9s?, J9 (note: I wouldn't play any of these myself), some pocket pairs, or a complete bluff.

So, both list are about the same length, but think the list of hands that beat me contain the more likely hands.

I was expecting to see QT, but I thought what the hell, if they called a pot sized bet for a gut shot I'll pay them off.

Based on pot odds, I have to be winning 42% of the time here. Is that likely?

beavens · #3 12-01-2005, 03:32 PM

one must also consider this IS PP 25NL and the play on average is atrocious at best.

ajmargarine · #4 12-01-2005, 03:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I was expecting to see QT, but I thought what the hell, if they called a pot sized bet for a gut shot I'll pay them off.

[/ QUOTE ]

When no one bet the flop, villian would have to see his Q and T as outs as well. It's semi-reasonable for him to call your flop bet with QT.

#5 12-01-2005, 03:58 PM

I also play NL 25 and like stated above the players there can be pretty bad, but there are two extremes at this level...

One is a person who will bet large when they have something they think is the nuts, like two pair or TPTK (these are the people who pay off your sets) the other is a person that plays passive till they make a legitimate hand and then tell you plainly that you're beat by betting out rather than check/calling.

Spotting these two types and using this info are the best reads you can make at these levels.

So which type is the villain?