Me (14-16 -1.71 ) & the "System" (15-21-1 -1.73) Wk 4

[TRWIII]

The system went 5-3 last week, but the three losses were razor close. I, on the other hand, fell flat on my face to put me in the red for the season. Let's see if we can fix that.

My picks (to win 1 unit):

NC State @ GT -4 -101
under 45.5 -107
GT looked god awful against VT two weeks ago, but NC State hasnt looked too stellar this year either. GT's defense is still stout (practically all of VT's points came on defense, special teams, or b/c their offense started each possesion in the red zone [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]). The weather will play a factor tonight as well. Nasty muck = run the ball. PJ Daniels can do that with the best of them. Bounce back win for GT tonight.

Texas Tech @ Nebraska +4 -107
Lord help me, Im tempting the CF gods again, but I like the Huskers as a home dog. Tech has played three creamy creampuffs and got challenged by Kansas. Nebraska is better then Kansas. Nebraska has a better home field advantage then Kansas. Nebraska has been stuffing people on defense (although this is the first decent offense theyve seen). This is more of a gut play then a reasoned one.

UNC +12.5 @ Louisville +105
Louisville has played precisely nobody, and got destroyed by one of those nobodies. UNC beat NC State, beat Utah, and gave GT and Wisconsin very good games. UNC plays better defense then the Cardinals do, and have shown the ability to put up a decent number of points against good defenses (which is not what one would describe Louisville's defense as [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]). Im not quite prepared to call for the outright upset, but this one comes down to the wire and winds up very close.

Kansas @ Kansas St -6 +101
Both teams got their first loss of the season on the road last week. Last week also marked the only decent teams either team has faced. The difference in this game, I think comes down to Kansas State controlling the ball on the ground at home and winning the field position battle. Kansas's offense hasnt put up all that great a performance even against the patsies. State on the other hand averaged north of 500yds/gm at home in their first two wins. This is my most hesitant pick, simply due to the uncertainty regarding how these two teams will preform against someone other then a cupcake or offensive powerhouse. Im thinking that state's running game carries the day here.

System picks (to win .25 units):

Wake Forest +21 @ FSU -101
Mississippi +27.5 @ Florida -107
Air Force +1 @ Navy -105
Cincinnati +12.5 @ Pitt
Missouri @ OK State +5.5
Stanford +14 @ Washington St -107
Ohio +21.5 @ Bowling Green
Texas A&M @ Colorado -3
Eastern Michigan +20 @ Toledo -107

Oof... lotsa games, lotsa big dogs, and one stinking favorite. Lots of Tums this Saturday [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img].

TRWIII

Thanks again for posting these TRW. I was pretty darn close to making great money last weekend. Duke and W. Mich sucked very late in the game, though Rice was pretty clearly going to be an ATS loss.

[TRWIII]

Meh. All of the games finished early for once. Another down week for the system, though. They were close losses for the most part, so Ill give it one more week. On the other hand, I got back into the win column thanks to Nebraska and Kansas St covering.

Me: 3-2 +1 unit
System: 4-5 (-0.36) units

YTD:
Me: 17-18 (-.71) units
System: 19-26-1 (-2.09) units

Hope your week went a little better then the systems did.

Till next week

TRWIII

Correction: the system went 3-6, won WF, Miss St. and Stanford only.

[TRWIII]

You missed the Colorado -3 win.
A&M 20 -- Colorado 41

TRWIII

Oh damn you're right, I bet A&M. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]