Bluff raising the river

Dudd · #1 06-19-2005, 05:49 PM

The initial raise preflop was to attempt to get heads up with the limper who was extremely loose and played awful heads up. The preflop three better was a TAG over a fairly large sample size, so I could safely put him on a decent hand. Anyways, my image to this point has to be pretty loose and aggressive, as I've been getting good hands and attempting to isolate against loose players, with fairly good results. Anyways, once he checks the turn, I was almost one hundred percent certain he was on high cards. I took the free card looking for my gutshot or one of my overcards, but after that missed, I felt as though raising the river against a thinking TAG might get him to throw away a big ace which had me beat. Is this a decent play, or is the check behind on the turn enough weakness that most players will call me down with a hand such as ace high?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB calls, BB 3-bets, UTG folds, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (6.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises...

jjacky · #2 06-19-2005, 06:26 PM

preflop: i think this play is horrible. you are only a slight favorite over a random hand and there are 4 players yet to act.

flop: this appears to be a clear fold as well. you are certainly behind and no idea which outs are good.

river: might be a good play but i don`t think so. if you have a loose agressive image, the probability to get called is increased. with 9.5 to 1 odds he will probably call with ace high.

aK13 · #3 06-19-2005, 08:49 PM

FPS.

crunchy1 · #4 06-20-2005, 08:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
preflop: i think this play is horrible. you are only a slight favorite over a random hand and there are 4 players yet to act.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not horrible. He's about a 3-to-2 favorite over a random hand. That doesn't matter anyways because we're not all-in. Villian he's attempting to isolate plays poorly HU and that's a good enough reason for me to take a shot here.

mosta · #5 06-20-2005, 08:56 AM

looking again, I thought there were more players behind hero. from CO vs one limper I'll raise QJo often.

jjacky · #6 06-20-2005, 10:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
preflop: i think this play is horrible. you are only a slight favorite over a random hand and there are 4 players yet to act.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not horrible. He's about a 3-to-2 favorite over a random hand. That doesn't matter anyways because we're not all-in. Villian he's attempting to isolate plays poorly HU and that's a good enough reason for me to take a shot here.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, he is a SLIGHT favorite over a random hand, but that's NO reason to raise. even a super weak and very loose player has an above average hand if he limps UTG (even if he folds only the worst 30% of his hands, he will have a random hand beat most of the time).
that means, even if hero succeeds in isolating the weak player, the average profit would not be very high. but if any other player enters the pot (most of the time with a raise) hero will be a big dog and lose much money.

crunchy1 · #7 06-20-2005, 10:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
yes, he is a SLIGHT favorite over a random hand, but that's NO reason to raise. even a super weak and very loose player has an above average hand if he limps UTG (even if he folds only the worst 30% of his hands, he will have a random hand beat most of the time).
that means, even if hero succeeds in isolating the weak player, the average profit would not be very high. but if any other player enters the pot (most of the time with a raise) hero will be a big dog and lose much money.

[/ QUOTE ]
3-to-2 favorite + buying the button + possibility of getting HU against a player who plays poorly post-flop + increased fold equity against any other loose cold-calls = decent play.

If nothing else it is unquestionably not "horrible" - as you described in your first reply.

jjacky · #8 06-20-2005, 10:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yes, he is a SLIGHT favorite over a random hand, but that's NO reason to raise. even a super weak and very loose player has an above average hand if he limps UTG (even if he folds only the worst 30% of his hands, he will have a random hand beat most of the time).
that means, even if hero succeeds in isolating the weak player, the average profit would not be very high. but if any other player enters the pot (most of the time with a raise) hero will be a big dog and lose much money.

[/ QUOTE ]
3-to-2 favorite + buying the button + possibility of getting HU against a player who plays poorly post-flop + increased fold equity against any other loose cold-calls = decent play.

If nothing else it is unquestionably not "horrible" - as you described in your first reply.

[/ QUOTE ]

like i already pointed out:
1. QJo 60% favorite against a random hand, not against the hand of the UTG limper.
2. there is a pretty high risk to get reraised by one of the 4 players yet to act, holding a FAR superior hand to QJo.

these two reasons alone make this play clearly -EV. in addition to that, the possibility to make mistakes like this one occur very often. habitually making plays like this costs very much money and i consider it to be a major leak.
that leads me to the conclusion that i was absolutely correct calling this preflop play "horrible".

Aces McGee · #9 06-20-2005, 10:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
yes, he is a SLIGHT favorite over a random hand, but that's NO reason to raise. even a super weak and very loose player has an above average hand if he limps UTG (even if he folds only the worst 30% of his hands, he will have a random hand beat most of the time).
that means, even if hero succeeds in isolating the weak player, the average profit would not be very high. but if any other player enters the pot (most of the time with a raise) hero will be a big dog and lose much money.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are failing to take into account the times that our hero, because he plays heads up much better than the UTG opponent, will actually get UTG to fold a better hand postflop.

I'm with crunchy. QJo is more than enough to isolate with, provided that there's a reasonable chance we will get it heads up.

-McGee

jjacky · #10 06-20-2005, 10:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yes, he is a SLIGHT favorite over a random hand, but that's NO reason to raise. even a super weak and very loose player has an above average hand if he limps UTG (even if he folds only the worst 30% of his hands, he will have a random hand beat most of the time).
that means, even if hero succeeds in isolating the weak player, the average profit would not be very high. but if any other player enters the pot (most of the time with a raise) hero will be a big dog and lose much money.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are failing to take into account the times that our hero, because he plays heads up much better than the UTG opponent, will actually get UTG to fold a better hand postflop.

I'm with crunchy. QJo is more than enough to isolate with, provided that there's a reasonable chance we will get it heads up.

-McGee

[/ QUOTE ]

the major mistake of the poor player UTG is definitely NOT that he folds too much. don`t overestimate your fold equity against a calling station.

an other important point that i tried to avoid to mention it is the following: hero plays poorly after the flop too. many people overestimate their abilities and think they can loosen up very much because their skill is so much superior to the opposition.

here a quote from inside the poker mind, p 10, essay "playing too many hands, causes and remedies".

cause for plaing too many hands #1:
"players overrate their abilities. some players, after developing a medicum of skill, begin to see themselves as playing somewhere near world class level. consequently, having heard that the best players can get away with playing more hands, they think they can do this too."