Pocket Pair Numbers

[Aaron W.]

I took these numbers off of my GFI computations. I think they illustrate how good pocket pairs really are (this is somewhat in response to this post, but it's generally the case that lots of micro players are far too passive with these hands preflop.)

Probability of [flopping an overpair or better] / [One overcard] == Total

AA - 100% / 0% == 100%
KK - 79.3% / 14.5% == 93.8%
QQ - 62.2% / 24.0% == 86.2%
JJ - 48.2% / 29.1% == 77.3%
TT - 37.1% / 27.5% == 64.6%
99 - 28.5% / 19.7% == 48.2%
88 - 22.1% / 17.3% == 39.4%
77 - 17.6% / 13.9% == 31.5%
66 - 14.6% / 10.1% == 24.7%
55 - 12.9% / 6.3% == 19.2%
44 - 12.0% / 3.0% == 15.0%
33 - 11.8% / 0.7% == 12.5%
22 - 11.8% / 0% == 11.8%

What does this really mean? If you are able to play a pocket pair profitably with a single overcard (which is generally true if you raise preflop), then even down to 66, you will flop a profitable hand more than about 25% of the time. If you're playing at a weak-tight table or even against someone who is loose preflop, this value goes way up! (Read through this post if you have doubts. And if you still have doubts, bring them to the table for discussion! That's how we all get better.)