Daily Hand Post : KJo in LMP

[sweetjazz]

I explained my logic poorly in the previous post. What I meant was that folding an A gives us more (half a pot more) with KJ, plus we also get half a pot more if we fold K high. This might be enough to make check-raising right with KJ and wrong with A high.

FWIW, I am check-raising with a Q here against any semi-aggressive opponent (i.e. is not suffering from rigor mortis). I think this will induce bluffs, and that A high will call the check-raise here a lot of the time. It may also induce a 3-bet from 9's full if the opponent is really loose and aggressive.

Of course, with a 9, I'm betting out and calling a raise.

[Stack]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm seeing more and more that this is a huge read dependant play. And I don't like it w/ as little information as we have on him.


[/ QUOTE ]

I see what you mean. One might need less of a read in the 30/60 level than in the 3/6 level to make this play profitable.

But I do agree that at 2/4 or 3/6, I wouldn't try this without a good read on my opponent.

[sweetjazz]

He needs to lay down Ax more than 1/4 of the time. Laying it down 1/4 of the time will profit it us only if we are assuming that he has Ax. And you're comparing check-raising to folding, which ignores the fact that we likely have to at least call in case he's bluffing with a counterfeited two pair or JT.

He could well have TT, JJ, AA, KK, a Q or a 9, and I bet he does have these hands a not insignificant proportion of the time.

I think he has to be a player who will bet A high in the first place when checked to, in order for this analysis to even get started. Then, let us assume that 30% of the time he's betting a hand above that beats us and is not folding to a check-raise (though if he folds TT or JJ here....that's great for us), 20% he's betting a busted draw or small PP that can't call our check-raise, and 50% of the time he has Ax. Let's assume that there is an x probability he will fold Ax to the check-raise. (For simplicity, let's assume he doesn't have Kx.)

Then our check-raise nets us: -2 BB 30% of the time, +8 BB 20% of the time, +8 BB .5x of the time, and -2BB .5(1-x) of the time. This equals -0.6 + 1.6 + 4x - (1 - x) = 5x BB.

Just calling nets us, -1 BB 80% of the time and +8 BB 20% of the time, which is +0.8 BB.

Thus, we need 5x > 0.8 or x > 0.16.

For AJ, the analysis would be:
-2 BB 30% of the time, +8 BB 20% of the time, +8 BB .5x, +4 BB .5(1 - x), which amounts to an EV of 2x + 3 BB if we raise.
And -2 30% of the time, +8 BB 20% of the time, +4 BB 50% of the time, which amounts to an EV of 3 BB if we just call.

Interestingly, this gives x > 0.

If this model is reasonable, check-raising with KJ is better than calling (and also better than folding, which should be obvious). And check-raising with AJ here is even better.

Two possible flaws with the model:
(1) We're assuming villain has Ax a lot here. If there is some chance he would check behind with Ax in this spot, that must be accounted for.
(2) We're assuming he won't bluff 3-bet us off the best hand here ever. That's a pretty reasonable assumption, but it should be noted nevertheless.

[dealer_toe]

I wouldn't discount how important the read is at 30/60. At 3/6 and lower you aren't going to find anyone that this play will be affective. The read is equally important at both levels.

[Stack]

[ QUOTE ]
The read is equally important at both levels.



[/ QUOTE ]

Oh absolutely. What I meant is that with the amount of reads available to GOT at the 30 game, he made that play. I don't know if he would make that play with the same amount of reads at 3/6. He would need a more precise read at these lower levels.

I've never played that high, so this is just how I feel. I'm sure he'll jump in if I'm wrong.

[dealer_toe]

I understand what you're saying. You would need a very specific read on someone at 3/6 to make this play. And I am adding to that, that it is highly highly unlikely that you will find anyone at that lower level that something like this would work.

[oreogod]

That is a beautiful play.

[Evan]

After I finished playing last night I was watching GoT and then played for him while he went to look for something. After he came back I kept playing while he watched and this hand came up. If it hadn't been for the combination of talking with him about similar plays and this thread I would NEVER have thought of this play. As soon as the river card hit I thought it looked like a good place to try to steal the pot, then he said, "see, this is a spot where I'd try a river check raise." I haven't had a moment like that, where something completely new clicked, in long time...it was pretty exciting.

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (3 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: (1.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB folds, Hero calls.

River: (5.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

[cassady]

what do you put button on prior to him folding to the check-raise?

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
My bad...I'm the original donkey around here and if I look back I think I used that term first, calling myself one, of course.

Edited by Joe Tall (06/10/05 04:08 PM)


[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]