Gamboool: Big Turn Semibluff Deep PP 2/4 6max

[fimbulwinter]

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i'm not sure that i "get" this,let my try and figure it out
thinking aloud herek,if he folds 25% of the time you're showing a profit-well and good...
the thing is,to me it looks like figuring out the pure maths in this particular situation isn't all that useful,here's why:

you're not really able to represent anything other than a set-he's unlikely to give you credit for a weird straight or anything,so you're basically representing a set
so it really comes down to the specific player
he's going to fall into one of three categories:
1-is married to his overpair,it won't even occur to him that he might be beat or that he could fold
2-he might worry about a set but he's not willing to fold an overpair "just in case"
3-he will figure you've got a set and make a "good" fold

now what i think is that he's going to fall into one of these categories and play accordingly *all* the time,and you make your money from knowing which type of player he is

if you don't already know that,i suppose this might be the way to find out!
the fact that you describe him as weak tight initially suggests that he might be the type to fold,however i've found that weak tight players are pretty bad,and will overplay the hands they've been sitting there waiting for,which is what you've put him on...

one other thing to consider is that you're representing a set-has he seen you play sets before,and is this how you've done it?
its a fairly obvious way to play a set,will that in itself make it look like you don't have one,or is he even observant enough to notice such things?

basically i suppose what i'm getting at is that this is very read dependent-if you don't have a solid read (on whether he'll lay down an overpair,that is)then this is a good way to find out,if you play him often enough for this to be profitable information...

i'm only starting to learn to play these stakes,though,so i'm just throwing out my point of view to see what people think-if i'm way off here i'd be interested to know why

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why do you think i'm representing a set? i think there's a much more logical hand for him to put me on here...

fim

[invisibleleadsoup]

sorry,yeah,i presume you mean 98
but would you not play that slower?
i mean,he hardly thinks you're putting him on a flush draw and trying to kill the pot
i think it still comes down to whether or not he folds an overpair to a possible set or two card straight

[fimbulwinter]

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sorry,yeah,i presume you mean 98
but would you not play that slower?


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i can count between 18 and 26 cards i would not want to see if i held the straight (not in terms of me losing, but in terms of me losing my action from KK etc.). when half the deck kills your river action, you play the nuts very fast.

fim

[invisibleleadsoup]

fair point,i wasnt thinking of that at all...
so will he fold his overpair?
will it even occur to him that you might have 98?
i can think of a lot of players at 2/4 who wouldn't think of that at all,i still think it comes down to whether he would or not...

[vulturesrow]

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Hold on its 2-1 you cant count your 28 in the pot size !

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Is it just me or is this statement completely wrong?

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Nothing wrong, I just completely misread your post is all. So hero is getting 2.3 pot odds to call.

Either ive gone completely mad or? There's 12+12+40 in the pot totalling 64, hero has to call another 28. Whats the disagreement here?!

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[arod15]

I like it a lot.

[chuddo]

i would never fold this preflop.

often i would check-call the flop, and check-raise the turn all in, as you did. stacks/pot sizes are perfect for this line to have the +30% folding equity against an overpair to make this a profitable play.

one line i might consider is just calling his turn bet, and adding a couple of 'bluffing' outs in addition to my actual big draw.

such as any 9 that puts the 4 straight out there.
an A if KK/QQ is possible and he can put you on the A-flush draw.
a 10 that pairs the top pair.

if one of those cards fall i would be very tempted to lead right into him pretty big. he could still credit you with a flopped set, a turned straight, or that you just rivered him.

as far as what to bet on the end if you call his turn bet and then hit it is dependant on which draw comes in.

the best card would obviously be the offsuit 3 and i would either bet the pot, and contemplate a check-raise all in if would not check his AA/KK behind.

if the flush comes in i would be resigned to bet 3/4th the pot. likewise for the 9 for the 4-straight.

[AZK]

I like it. I don't know if people lay down enough at 2/4 for this to be profitable. They never did against me, but I had my image working against me. You know what he has, and from your description it sounds like he is weak enough to lay down, but only you can tell us from your database whether or not he marries his AA/KK....that's it.

[Allinlife]

this play is awesome agasint weak players. but most of the time on party 2/4, I get called often in this spot and repeat to my self "i gotta stop w/ fps"

I'd also often fold to flop bet. you have obvious non-nut draw oop. too often you will get no action when you hit your flush and at times you do, it'll probably higher flush stacking you.

[LuvDemNutz]

I like it.

I also like showing when he folds so when I have set a few hands later, I stack him.