Gamboool: Big Turn Semibluff Deep PP 2/4 6max

[fimbulwinter]

Villain (BB) is weak/tight (22/4) regular. have 3000 hands on him, he plays his cards. RR is AA or KK and maybe QQ >95% of the time.

UTG (600) just sat, have seen him in the 1/2 game and he's decent but nothing to worry about.

I'm (~750) on SB with 54[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

PF:

UTG raises to $12, folded to me, I call, BB (800) makes it 40, UTG folds, I call.

F: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (90)

I check, BB bets 75, I call

T: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (240)

I check, BB bets 175, I raise all-in for 460 more.

1. what line do you like if the turn comes a diamond?
2. if he folds, do i show it?

fim

[fimbulwinter]

i'm betting 635 to win 415 and i (almost surely) have ~14.5 outs for a little better than 33% equity.

0 = 415x + (1-x)((.33)(1510) - (635))
0 = 415x + (1-x)(-136.7)
136.7 = 551.7x
x = 25% or more he must fold to have the move turn a profit.

at x = 50 EV = $138
and
at x = 75 EV = $276

notice just calling the 175 yields

175/(240+175+175) = .297 or a total gain of (.33-.297)(pot) = ~$17 + 1/3(river value bet when i hit)

so which do you like better? obviously folding the turn is not allowed...

fim

[Rotating Rabbit]

Off the top of my head he only has to fold this more than about 1/3rd+ of the time to make it +EV. Meta game is huge of course. So this is a good move.

Is calling his RR preflop really profitable for you out of position here? Difficult to get paid off oop, this semibluff may have been one of only very few +EV scenarios.

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]

Is calling his RR preflop really profitable for you out of position here? Difficult to get paid off oop, this semibluff may have been one of only very few +EV scenarios.

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that's a good question. bear in mind, it was 28 back to me to play a 90 dollar pot, so i was getting better than 3:1 on the call...

still, it's debateable, any thoughts either way?

fim

[captZEEbo1]

fold preflop, furthermore, I really really really doubt you will get anything to fold except AKo. I don't like it. You'd have to have a killer read to make this play (very weak). If he has QQ+, he'll just convince himself you have JJ or AT or a flush draw.

Calling turn is better than pushing imo.

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
fold preflop,

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when?

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furthermore, I really really really doubt you will get anything to fold except AKo. I don't like it. You'd have to have a killer read to make this play (very weak). If he has QQ+, he'll just convince himself you have JJ or AT or a flush draw.

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what? AT and JJ? iuhdafildfhuiludf? is this a joke post?

[ QUOTE ]
Calling turn is better than pushing imo.

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give me a fold equity percentage and a value bet $ amount then.

fim

[Rotating Rabbit]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Is calling his RR preflop really profitable for you out of position here? Difficult to get paid off oop, this semibluff may have been one of only very few +EV scenarios.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's a good question. bear in mind, it was 28 back to me to play a 90 dollar pot, so i was getting better than 3:1 on the call...

still, it's debateable, any thoughts either way?

fim

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Hold on its 2-1 you cant count your 28 in the pot size !I really dont think its profitable.

Im convinced you'll get way more than 25% folds here at 400nl. And even if you get called the -EV from being called is only -$135 or so, you'll get it back several times over when you next checkraise all in with the goods.

[vulturesrow]

[ QUOTE ]
Hold on its 2-1 you cant count your 28 in the pot size !

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Is it just me or is this statement completely wrong?

[Rotating Rabbit]

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[ QUOTE ]
Hold on its 2-1 you cant count your 28 in the pot size !

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Is it just me or is this statement completely wrong?

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Either ive gone completely mad or? There's 12+12+40 in the pot totalling 64, hero has to call another 28. Whats the disagreement here?!

[invisibleleadsoup]

i'm not sure that i "get" this,let my try and figure it out
thinking aloud herek,if he folds 25% of the time you're showing a profit-well and good...
the thing is,to me it looks like figuring out the pure maths in this particular situation isn't all that useful,here's why:

you're not really able to represent anything other than a set-he's unlikely to give you credit for a weird straight or anything,so you're basically representing a set
so it really comes down to the specific player
he's going to fall into one of three categories:
1-is married to his overpair,it won't even occur to him that he might be beat or that he could fold
2-he might worry about a set but he's not willing to fold an overpair "just in case"
3-he will figure you've got a set and make a "good" fold

now what i think is that he's going to fall into one of these categories and play accordingly *all* the time,and you make your money from knowing which type of player he is

if you don't already know that,i suppose this might be the way to find out!
the fact that you describe him as weak tight initially suggests that he might be the type to fold,however i've found that weak tight players are pretty bad,and will overplay the hands they've been sitting there waiting for,which is what you've put him on...

one other thing to consider is that you're representing a set-has he seen you play sets before,and is this how you've done it?
its a fairly obvious way to play a set,will that in itself make it look like you don't have one,or is he even observant enough to notice such things?

basically i suppose what i'm getting at is that this is very read dependent-if you don't have a solid read (on whether he'll lay down an overpair,that is)then this is a good way to find out,if you play him often enough for this to be profitable information...

i'm only starting to learn to play these stakes,though,so i'm just throwing out my point of view to see what people think-if i'm way off here i'd be interested to know why