Lee Jones on game theory?

[fritzwar]

Wasn't sure if this should be posted under "theory" or "books/software" so I double posted. -- sorry --

On p.146 of the new edition of Lee Jones' *Winning Low Limit Holdem* Jones is discussing heads up river play when first to act. He says:

"If you are betting a strong one-pair hand and get raised on the river (in a heads-up pot), you should call virually all the time. In fact, here's a good rule: If [heads up] you bet an overpair or top pair with an ace or king kicker and are raised always call. If you're going to fold in a situation like this, do it when you are making a 'thin' value bet. Perhaps you were betting second pair, or top pair with a very weak kicker. Even in those cases, you should fold only rarely -- perhaps 10% of the time."

And here the text has a footnote which says:

"The correct game-theoretical frequency is to fold one in N times where N is the number of big bets in the pot". [he gives an example then, saying that with 12 big bets in the pot, one should fold when raise 1/12 of the time in "situations such as you are in".]

Question -- what is Jones talking about here? What "game-theoretical result" does he think gives the result that the correct fold percentage here is 1/N?
Given that the range of hands he's talking about includes everything from overpairs down to top pair/weak kicker and 2nd pair/good kicker I sincerely doubt that any "game-theoretical" result delivers folding advice of the sort he gives with this formula.

Are there further unstated assumptions that get this result for him or is this another case of a poker author gesturing at "game theory" without a firm foundation?

[phish]

I think he's trying to incorporate work done by Skl/Mal on this very question. I don't think his understanding of the issue is complete or entirely accurate. The correct theory takes into account the frequency your opponent would raise bluff (or value raise w/ a hand weaker than yours) as well as the potsize.
But regardless, the main point is, there is an optimal calling percentage, and it is very high. If you call everytime in these situations, you're not making a big error. But if you fold as frequently as 25% of the time in these situations, there is a major flaw in your game. Ignore the footnote, the rest of the advice seems sound.

[fritzwar]

I agree that the advice in the text is good advice. The footnote is a disaster, and it's the sort of footnote that annoys me -- it comes off as a pretense to some deeper knowledge coming from "game theory" that the author doesn't really have. He comes off better when sticking with plain straight-forward explanations.